Oesterr. Post AG (POST) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Oesterr. Post AG stock €38.29, price €32.10, upside +19.3%, quality 51 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €20.96 – €34.28 · fair‑value band €26.36 – €50.22 · the €32.10 price screens below the €38.29 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Österreichische Post AG, together with its subsidiaries, provides postal and parcel services in Austria, Germany, Southeast and Eastern Europe, Turkey, and internationally. The company operates through three divisions: Mail, Parcel & Logistics, and Retail & Bank.
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The Mail division engages in the distribution, collection, sorting, and delivery of letters and document shipments, addressed and unaddressed direct mail, and newspapers and magazines, as well as online services, such as e-letter and cross-media solutions.
This division also provides physical and digital services in customer communications and document processing.
The Parcel & Logistics division offers solutions for parcel products, express delivery, and food delivery; stationary logistics for pharmaceutical products; and value-added services, including warehousing, order picking, returns management, and web shop logistics and infrastructure, as well as cash and valuable goods transportation services.
The Retail & Bank division offers postal and telecommunication, and merchandise, as well as financial services offered by a retail ban and payment transaction services; and bank accounts, transfer services, consumer loans, investment and saving options, housing finance, and insurance; and self-service solutions, such as pick-up and drop-off stations at various locations.
The company was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in Vienna, Austria. Österreichische Post AG is a subsidiary of Österreichische Beteiligungs AG.
Stock analysis
Oesterr. Post AG (POST) currently trades at €32.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €38.29, implying the stock looks roughly 16% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €60.74 per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the €32.10 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €5.67, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €26.36 (bear) to €50.22 (bull), the price of €32.10 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Oesterr. Post AG reported revenue of €3.0B in FY2025 versus €2.5B in FY2021, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was €132M in FY2025, compounding −3.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €2.2B Mid · P/E ratio 24.9 · P/S ratio 0.70 · EPS (TTM) €1.29 · Dividend yield 5.7% · Net margin 2.8% · Return on equity 13.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 19%, POST screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€26.36Fair Value €38.29Bull€50.22
Price €32.10 · Upside +19.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.4% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+3.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.0% vs −1.0%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 6%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.3%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.3% a year for the price and +1.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (11 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The business shows stable profitability via parcel growth and newer areas, yet thin evidence of durable edges leaves it exposed to structural mail volume pressure.
Main risk: Ongoing mail volume pressure threatens the core mail operations and could reduce revenues across the integrated freight and logistics activities.
Austrian Post faces ongoing mail volume pressure while parcel growth and newer areas like bank99 add to the mix. The next results are expected to separate a solid operational performance from reported figures boosted by one-time effects tied to a long-standing social contributions agreement. Our models see the stock as undervalued, but will the underlying logistics and services business drive lasting improvement or will temporary items dominate the picture?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 210 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Oesterr. Post AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/POST.VI
Frequently asked questions
Is Oesterr. Post AG (POST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €38.29 versus a price of €32.10, about +19% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of POST?
Our model-based fair value for Oesterr. Post AG is €38.29 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €32.10.
What is the quality score of POST?
Oesterr. Post AG has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Oesterr. Post AG (POST)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €38.29 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €26.36, optimistic scenario €50.22. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Oesterr. Post AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €38.29, about +19% upside versus a price of €32.10 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €26.36, optimistic scenario €50.22. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Oesterr. Post AG (POST)?
Oesterr. Post AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Oesterr. Post AG pay a dividend?
Oesterr. Post AG currently shows a dividend yield of 5.70% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Oesterr. Post AG (POST) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Oesterr. Post AG pays a dividend of €1.83 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Apr 24, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2007. The payout ratio is 142% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.88 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Oesterr. Post AG (POST)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Oesterr. Post AG would have to grow free cash flow by -8.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.8 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of POST use?
Our models discount Oesterr. Post AG at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.51, country premium for Austria. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Oesterr. Post AG that is -8.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Oesterr. Post AG (POST) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Oesterr. Post AG grew +6.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -8.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Oesterr. Post AG (POST) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Oesterr. Post AG (-8.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Oesterr. Post AG (POST)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.71 %: that much free cash flow Oesterr. Post AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Oesterr. Post AG (POST)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Oesterr. Post AG it is €38.29 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of €32.10. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Oesterr. Post AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, POST trades below its calculated fair value: price €32.10, fair value €38.29, a gap of about +19% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of POST?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€32.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€38.29). For Oesterr. Post AG the two are €6.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Oesterr. Post AG worth?
The market values Oesterr. Post AG at about €2.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is €32.10; our models calculate a fair value of €38.29 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about POST?
Our models span a range for Oesterr. Post AG: cautious scenario €26.36, base €38.29, optimistic €50.22 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price €32.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of POST?
Oesterr. Post AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.9 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €38.29 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 15.7. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 3.0, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 6.1.
What is the PEG ratio of POST?
The PEG ratio of Oesterr. Post AG is 1.19 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Oesterr. Post AG (POST)?
Balance-sheet figures for Oesterr. Post AG (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 13.5%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is POST from its 52-week high?
Oesterr. Post AG trades at €32.10, about 6% below its 52-week high of €34.28 and 14% above the low of €28.07 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €38.29 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Oesterr. Post AG?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Oesterr. Post AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price €32.10, calculated fair value €38.29 (+19%), Quality Score 51/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of POST calculated?
We run Oesterr. Post AG through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €38.29 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Oesterr. Post AG currently trades 16% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Oesterr. Post AG (POST)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €32.10. Our model-based fair value is €38.29, about +19% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Oesterr. Post AG right now?
A fairly wide model range (€26.36 to €50.22) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Oesterr. Post AG (POST) come from?
Earnings per share at Oesterr. Post AG grew +0.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.0 %, EBIT margin −3.1 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Oesterr. Post AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Oesterr. Post AG (POST)?
The market capitalisation of Oesterr. Post AG is €2.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Oesterr. Post AG (POST)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Oesterr. Post AG is 0.70 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Oesterr. Post AG (POST)?
Earnings per share at Oesterr. Post AG are €1.29 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Oesterr. Post AG (POST)?
The dividend yield of Oesterr. Post AG is 5.7% (payout 142%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Oesterr. Post AG (POST)?
The net margin of Oesterr. Post AG is 2.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Oesterr. Post AG (POST)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Oesterr. Post AG is 13.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Oesterr. Post AG (POST)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Oesterr. Post AG is 3.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Oesterr. Post AG (POST)?
The operating margin of Oesterr. Post AG is 4.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Oesterr. Post AG (POST)?
Revenue at Oesterr. Post AG is growing +6.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Oesterr. Post AG (POST)?
Earnings per share at Oesterr. Post AG are growing −76.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Oesterr. Post AG (POST) carry?
The net debt of Oesterr. Post AG is €637M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026