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FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. $54.62, price $113, upside -51.6%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Industrials · US · ISIN US3143521058

FF FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. logo Thin data Oct 4, 2026

FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc.

FDXF · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

Quality 40/100
Thin margins · 7.5% net margin (TTM)
Negative equity (buybacks among others)
Fair value $54.62 · Strongly overvalued (−51.6%)
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −4.5 %/yr in USD)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/9)
Narrow moat 36/100
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$158.53 $109.38 Fair Value $54.62 Jun 2026 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

3‑month range $109.38 – $158.53 · fair‑value band $54.62 – $80.66 · the $112.89 price screens above the $54.62 fair value. As of Oct 4, 2026.

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Company profile

FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. provides less-than-truckload freight transportation services in the United States and internationally.

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FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. provides less-than-truckload freight transportation services in the United States and internationally. The company offers FedEx Freight Priority services, including next-business-day service for shipments traveling up to 600 miles and second-business-day service for shipments traveling up to 1,600 miles and backed by a money-back service guarantee if published delivery commitments are not met; and FedEx Freight Economy. It also provides surface expedite and white glove services; and LTL Select, a cloud-based transportation management system. In addition, the company offers volume and custom critical services, FedEx Freight Direct, and Retail Flex. It provides its services under the FedEx and FedEx Freight names. The company was incorporated in 2025 and is headquartered in Memphis, Tennessee.

Stock analysis

FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF) currently trades at $112.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $54.62, 51.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $69.60 per share, and 0 of the 8 models we run sit above the $112.89 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $36.41, and 8 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $54.62 (bear) to $80.66 (bull), the price of $112.89 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. reported revenue of $8.8B in FY2026 versus $10.1B in FY2023, a compound −4.5%/yr. Reported net income was $655M in FY2026, compounding −25.5%/yr from FY2023.

Key figures

Market cap $16.9B · P/E ratio 25.8 · P/S ratio 1.92 · EPS (TTM) $4.38 · Net margin 7.4% · Return on equity 69.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 21.4% · Operating margin −5.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at −52%, FDXF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $54.62 Fair Value $54.62 Bull $80.66
Price $112.89 · Upside -51.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.51 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings $20.94 $40.28 $76.10 69
EV/EBITDA $36.18 $57.68 $79.18 66
Graham-Dodd $29.79 $36.41 $40.96 65
All 8 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $20.94 $40.28 $76.10 69
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $29.79 $36.41 $40.96 65
Multiples
P/E Multiple $69.00 $92.00 $114.99 63
P/S Multiple $55.85 $74.47 $93.09 58
EV/EBIT $17.74 $33.09 $48.44 63
EV/EBITDA $36.18 $57.68 $79.18 66
EV/Revenue $4.55 $18.64 $32.73 48
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $48.72 $69.60 $90.48 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 18

Profitability 75
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 23
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 7
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 57
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 87
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 35
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 17
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 1
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 14
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 19/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−29.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−29.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2023 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 6%

FDXF screens overvalued: fair value 52% below the price. Compare with United Parcel Service, Inc →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (83 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Very negative
Recent news coverage is unusually downbeat.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 208 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −51.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets 5.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 7.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −5.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 4.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Integrated Freight & Logistics median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 25.8× · Pricier than median
P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 1.92× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 21.4× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 49
FUTURE (revenue growth)24 · sector 46
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 63

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Integrated Freight & Logistics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
United Parcel Service, Inc UPS $93.44 $107.34 +15%
Deutsche Post AG DHL €55.74 €137.08 +146%
FedEx Corporation FDX $290.36 $349.54 +20%
DSV A/S DSV kr 1,199 kr 711.95 −41%
Poste Italiane S.p.A PST €24.49 €14.24 −42%
Kuehne + Nagel International AG KNIN CHF 224.50 CHF 147.92 −34%
Expeditors International of Washington, Inc EXPD $192.47 $116.66 −39%
S.F. Holding 002352 ¥30.54 ¥109.70 +259%
J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc JBHT $234.20 $133.80 −43%
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc CHRW $157.72 $87.31 −45%

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FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. · Fair Value
$54.62 −52%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FDXF

Frequently asked questions

Is FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $54.62 versus a price of $112.89, about −52% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FDXF?
Our model-based fair value for FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. is $54.62 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $112.89.
What is the quality score of FDXF?
FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $54.62 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario $54.62, optimistic scenario $80.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $54.62, about −52% upside versus a price of $112.89 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $54.62, optimistic scenario $80.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF)?
FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.8B (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. it is $54.62 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of $112.89. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, FDXF trades above its calculated fair value: price $112.89, fair value $54.62, a gap of about −52% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FDXF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($112.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($54.62). For FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. the two are $58.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. worth?
The market values FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. at about $16.9B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is $112.89; our models calculate a fair value of $54.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FDXF?
Our models span a range for FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc.: cautious scenario $54.62, base $54.62, optimistic $80.66 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price $112.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FDXF?
FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.8 (as of Oct 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $54.62 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 21.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF)?
Balance-sheet figures for FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (as of Oct 4, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, Deutsche Post AG, FedEx Corporation, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price $112.89, calculated fair value $54.62 (−52%), Quality Score 40/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FDXF calculated?
We run FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $54.62, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $112.89. Our model-based fair value is $54.62, about −52% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($80.66). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF)?
The market capitalisation of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. is $16.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. is 1.92 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF)?
Earnings per share at FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. are $4.38 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF)?
The net margin of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. is 7.4% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. is 69.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. is 21.4% (avg 3y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF)?
The operating margin of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. is −5.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF)?
Revenue at FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. is growing +4.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF)?
Earnings per share at FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. are growing −61.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF) generate?
The free cash flow of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. is −$212M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. (FDXF) carry?
The net debt of FedEx Freight Holding Company, Inc. is $6.1B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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