Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Starbucks Corporation stock $65.63, price $106, that is 38.2% below the price, quality 76 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $62.82 – $111.40 · fair‑value band $45.93 – $86.62 · the $106.16 price screens above the $65.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Starbucks Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a roaster, marketer, and retailer of coffee internationally. The company operates through three segments: North America, International, and Channel Development.
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Its stores offer coffee, tea, and other beverages, roasted whole beans and ground coffees, complementary food, packaged coffees, single-serve products, and ready-to-drink beverages; and various food products, such as pastries, breakfast sandwiches, and lunch items.
The company also licenses its trademarks through licensed stores, and grocery and foodservice accounts. The company offers its products under the Starbucks Coffee, Teavana, Seattle's Best Coffee, Ethos, and Starbucks Reserve brands.
Starbucks Corporation was founded in 1971 and is based in Seattle, Washington.
Stock analysis
Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) currently trades at $106.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $65.63, 38% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $54.40 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the $106.16 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $16.22, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $45.93 (bear) to $86.62 (bull), the price of $106.16 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Starbucks Corporation reported revenue of $37.9B in FY2026 versus $32.3B in FY2022, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was $2.5B in FY2026, compounding −6.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $121B Large · P/E ratio 48.0 · P/S ratio 3.20 · EPS (TTM) $2.21 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 6.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.6% · Operating margin 12.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −38%, SBUX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$45.93Fair Value $65.63Bull$86.62
Price $106.16 · Downside -38.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$35.40$70.74$131.0976
Growth DCF$35.07$67.45$121.1075
EPV$9.97$13.16$15.9574
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$35.40$70.74$131.0976
Owner Earnings$22.42$47.56$90.4972
5Y Revenue Exit$23.66$45.94$75.6970
5Y EBITDA Exit$34.34$67.88$109.7273
5Y P/E Exit$27.78$54.40$84.5269
10Y Revenue Exit$26.35$48.73$82.1064
10Y EBITDA Exit$34.30$64.65$110.2766
10Y P/E Exit$29.99$54.87$89.4162
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$15.07$69.13$94.8864
Lynch FV$18.15$25.93$33.7161
PEG = 1.0$18.15$25.93$33.7157
EPV$9.97$13.16$15.9574
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM$22.40$45.86$71.5166
DDM Multi-Stage$22.40$39.02$48.2467
Multiples
P/E Multiple$36.57$48.76$60.9563
P/S Multiple$28.26$37.68$47.0958
EV/EBIT$27.27$41.84$56.4165
EV/EBITDA$30.71$46.42$62.1466
EV/Revenue$11.50$23.47$35.4451
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$35.07$67.45$121.1075
Rev-Margin DCF$23.66$45.66$74.0170
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder$11.26$16.22$21.6471
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$29.91$42.74$55.5667
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $1.1M and none bought.
SaleBrady Brewerceo, International12× since Mar 5, 2026: 17,832 shares, avg. $100.36$1.8MOct 20, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleSara Kellyevp, chief partner officer2× since Mar 5, 2026: 4,500 shares, avg. $100.62$452,800Apr 29, 202610b5-1 plan
BuyJorgen Vig KnudstorpDirector11,700 shares at $85.00$994,500Nov 10, 2025
Plus 3 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.9% a year
Revenue growth 35 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+20.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−2.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
From 2015 to 2026, about 115% of the growth in earnings per share came from share buybacks, and equity is negative: the buybacks are partly paid with debt. That cannot be repeated indefinitely.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4.9% vs 1.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.2% a year for the price and +0.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Moderate brand strength and operational improvements from store investments support transaction growth, yet negative equity, high debt and limited innovation constrain durable advantage.
Main risk: Named rivals such as 7 Brew, Dutch Bros and Scooter’s Coffee with lower-overhead drive-thru models could draw customers away from Starbucks stores and pressure prices or margins.
Bull case: By strengthening its third-place experience and service model, Starbucks could retain loyal customers and differentiate from faster drive-thru alternatives.
Bear case: If drive-thru chains continue rapid expansion, Starbucks might lose significant US market share as customers shift to lower-cost convenient options.
Starbucks is generating stronger comparable sales through rising transactions from both rewards members and non-members as its store experience investments take hold. At the same time the company continues closing underperforming locations while accelerating remodels and planning technology upgrades for next year. Our models see it as overvalued, so will these changes lift margins sustainably or mainly fuel further sales growth?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 202 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score76 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−38.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets8.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)6.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)12.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−4.5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)48.0× · Priciest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Starbucks Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SBUX
Frequently asked questions
Is Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $65.63 versus a price of $106.16, about 38% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SBUX?
Our model-based fair value for Starbucks Corporation is $65.63 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $106.16.
What is the quality score of SBUX?
Starbucks Corporation has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $65.63 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $45.93, optimistic scenario $86.62. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Starbucks Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $65.63, about 38% lower versus a price of $106.16 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $45.93, optimistic scenario $86.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)?
Starbucks Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $37.9B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Starbucks Corporation pay a dividend?
Starbucks Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 2.35% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Starbucks Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +18.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.5 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SBUX use?
Our models discount Starbucks Corporation at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.98, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Starbucks Corporation that is +18.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Starbucks Corporation grew +5.5 % a year. The price currently implies +18.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Starbucks Corporation (+18.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.07 %: that much free cash flow Starbucks Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Starbucks Corporation it is $65.63 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $106.16. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Starbucks Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, SBUX trades above its calculated fair value: price $106.16, fair value $65.63, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SBUX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($106.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($65.63). For Starbucks Corporation the two are $40.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Starbucks Corporation worth?
The market values Starbucks Corporation at about $121B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $106.16; our models calculate a fair value of $65.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SBUX?
Our models span a range for Starbucks Corporation: cautious scenario $45.93, base $65.63, optimistic $86.62 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $106.16). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SBUX?
Starbucks Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 48.0 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $65.63 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 29.6. Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/S 3.2, EV/EBITDA 23.1.
What is the PEG ratio of SBUX?
The PEG ratio of Starbucks Corporation is 1.14 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Starbucks Corporation (as of Nov 5, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 76/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SBUX from its 52-week high?
Starbucks Corporation trades at $106.16, about 3% below its 52-week high of $109.70 and 32% above the low of $80.17 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $65.63 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Starbucks Corporation?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Yum! Brands, Inc, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Restaurant Brands International Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Starbucks Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $106.16, calculated fair value $65.63 (−38%), Quality Score 76/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SBUX calculated?
We run Starbucks Corporation through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $65.63, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Starbucks Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $106.16. Our model-based fair value is $65.63, about 38% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Starbucks Corporation right now?
A high-quality business (quality 76/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($86.62). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range ($45.93 to $86.62) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) come from?
Earnings per share at Starbucks Corporation grew +2.6 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.7 %, EBIT margin −5.5 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Starbucks Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)?
The market capitalisation of Starbucks Corporation is $121B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Starbucks Corporation is 3.20 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)?
Earnings per share at Starbucks Corporation are $2.21 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 48.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)?
The dividend yield of Starbucks Corporation is 2.3% (payout 113%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)?
The net margin of Starbucks Corporation is 6.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Starbucks Corporation is 15.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)?
The operating margin of Starbucks Corporation is 12.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)?
Revenue at Starbucks Corporation is growing −4.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Starbucks Corporation (SBUX)?
Earnings per share at Starbucks Corporation are growing +405% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) carry?
The net debt of Starbucks Corporation is $18.7B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 5.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 5, 2026