Target Corporation (TGT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Target Corporation stock $120, price $158, that is 23.9% below the price, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $81.44 – $228.72 · fair‑value band $69.35 – $183.81 · the $157.95 price screens above the $120.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Target Corporation operates as a general merchandise retailer in the United States.
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It offers apparel for women, men, young adults, kids, toddlers, and babies, as well as jewelry, accessories, and shoes; and beauty products, such as skin and bath care, cosmetics, hair care, oral care, deodorant, and shaving products.
The company also provides food and beverage products comprising dry and perishable grocery, including snacks, candy, beverages, deli, bakery, meat, produce, and food service; electronics which includes video games and consoles, toys, sporting goods, entertainment, and luggage; bed and bath, home décor, school/office supplies, storage, small appliances, kitchenware, greeting cards, party supplies, furniture, lighting, home improvement, and seasonal merchandise; and household essentials, such as household cleaning, paper products, over-the-counter healthcare, vitamins and supplements, baby gear, and pet supplies.
In addition, it sells merchandise through periodic design and creative partnerships, and shop-in-shop experience; and in-store amenities. The company sells its products through its stores; and digital channels, including Target.com.
Target Corporation was incorporated in 1902 and is headquartered in Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Stock analysis
Target Corporation (TGT) currently trades at $157.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $120.15, 24% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $158.90 per share, and 5 of the 25 models we run sit above the $157.95 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $22.91, and 20 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $69.35 (bear) to $183.81 (bull), the price of $157.95 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Target Corporation reported revenue of $105B in FY2026 versus $106B in FY2022, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was $3.7B in FY2026, compounding −14.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $72.0B Large · P/E ratio 16.4 · P/S ratio 0.67 · EPS (TTM) $9.63 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 4.1% · Return on equity 26.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 57 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 94% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −24%, TGT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$69.35Fair Value $120.15Bull$183.81
Price $157.95 · Downside -23.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.88 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 5 officers or directors sold shares worth $19.7M and none bought.
SaleBrian C CornellExecutive Officer, Director3× since Mar 10, 2026: 150,000 shares, avg. $138.39$20.8MAug 25, 2026
SaleMelissa K KremerExecutive Officer15,500 shares at $169.96$2.6MAug 24, 2026
SaleMatthew A LiegelChief Accounting Officer2× since Mar 17, 2026: 2,979 shares, avg. $131.59$392,001Aug 21, 2026
SaleLisa R RoathExecutive Officer7,000 shares at $138.07$966,490Jun 29, 2026
SaleCara A SylvesterExecutive Officer10,000 shares at $125.89$1.3MMay 29, 2026
Plus 5 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.56/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.6% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1.2% vs 5.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 5%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.5% a year for the price and +1.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Scale in discount retail supports efficient store-based fulfillment for digital orders, yet limited differentiation and thin innovation signals constrain competitive power.
Main risk: Shoppers using external generative AI platforms for discovery and purchases could reduce Target's direct customer data and interactions, weakening brand loyalty and control over the shopping experience.
Bull case: Target could integrate its stores and data deeply with leading AI platforms while enhancing exclusive brands and same-day fulfillment to retain direct relationships and capture value from agentic commerce.
Bear case: If external AI agents dominate discovery and purchases while Walmart and Amazon expand faster in digital and pricing, Target could lose significant customer traffic and face prolonged margin compression in its core categories.
Target is accelerating digital sales by routing more orders through its large store network for faster fulfillment. At the same time the FTC is examining its data practices and personalized pricing. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the store-based e-commerce gains outweigh any regulatory friction?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Discount Stores · 23 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Below median
Fair Value upside−23.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)26.4% · Above median
Return on assets6.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)4.1% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)6.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.89× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Discount Stores median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)16.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/B4.45× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)0.67× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)25.4× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Target Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TGT
Frequently asked questions
Is Target Corporation (TGT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $120.15 versus a price of $157.95, about 24% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TGT?
Our model-based fair value for Target Corporation is $120.15 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $157.95.
What is the quality score of TGT?
Target Corporation has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Target Corporation (TGT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $120.15 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $69.35, optimistic scenario $183.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Target Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $120.15, about 24% lower versus a price of $157.95 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $69.35, optimistic scenario $183.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Target Corporation (TGT)?
Target Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $108B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Target Corporation pay a dividend?
Target Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 2.89% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Target Corporation (TGT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Target Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +15.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.3 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TGT use?
Our models discount Target Corporation at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.98, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Target Corporation that is +15.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Target Corporation (TGT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Target Corporation grew +2.3 % a year. The price currently implies +15.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Target Corporation (TGT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Target Corporation (+15.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Target Corporation (TGT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.94 %: that much free cash flow Target Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Target Corporation (TGT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Target Corporation it is $120.15 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $157.95. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Target Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, TGT trades above its calculated fair value: price $157.95, fair value $120.15, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TGT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($157.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($120.15). For Target Corporation the two are $37.80 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Target Corporation worth?
The market values Target Corporation at about $72.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $157.95; our models calculate a fair value of $120.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TGT?
Our models span a range for Target Corporation: cautious scenario $69.35, base $120.15, optimistic $183.81 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $157.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TGT?
Target Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.4 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $120.15 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2018, FY2022 ex one-offs: 15.9. Other multiples: PEG 2.0, P/B 4.5, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 9.4.
What is the PEG ratio of TGT?
The PEG ratio of Target Corporation is 1.98 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Target Corporation (TGT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Target Corporation (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 26.4%, debt of 0.89 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TGT from its 52-week high?
Target Corporation trades at $157.95, about 7% below its 52-week high of $169.89 and 94% above the low of $81.44 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $120.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Target Corporation?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Walmart Inc, Costco Wholesale Corporation, Dollarama Inc, Dollar General Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Target Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $157.95, calculated fair value $120.15 (−24%), Quality Score 60/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TGT calculated?
We run Target Corporation through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $120.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Target Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Target Corporation (TGT)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $157.95. Our model-based fair value is $120.15, about 24% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Target Corporation right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($69.35 to $183.81). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Target Corporation (TGT) come from?
Earnings per share at Target Corporation grew +6.6 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.2 %, EBIT margin +3.6 %, tax rate +1.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Target Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Target Corporation (TGT)?
The market capitalisation of Target Corporation is $72.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Target Corporation (TGT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Target Corporation is 0.67 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Target Corporation (TGT)?
Earnings per share at Target Corporation are $9.63 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Target Corporation (TGT)?
The dividend yield of Target Corporation is 2.9% (payout 47.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Target Corporation (TGT)?
The net margin of Target Corporation is 4.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Target Corporation (TGT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Target Corporation is 26.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Target Corporation (TGT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Target Corporation is 10.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Target Corporation (TGT)?
The operating margin of Target Corporation is 6.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Target Corporation (TGT)?
Revenue at Target Corporation is growing +5.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Target Corporation (TGT)?
Earnings per share at Target Corporation are growing +101% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Target Corporation (TGT) carry?
The net debt of Target Corporation is $14.8B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 5.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026