Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Texas Roadhouse Inc stock $129, price $196, that is 34.6% below the price, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $64.87 – $214.28 · fair‑value band $76.68 – $167.11 · the $196.45 price screens above the $128.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Texas Roadhouse, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates casual dining restaurants in the United States and internationally. It operates through Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33, and Others segments.
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The company's restaurants offer seasoned and aged steaks, ribs, seafood, chicken, pork chops, pulled pork, and vegetable plates, as well as an assortment of hamburgers, salads, and sandwiches; and pizza, wings, and various appetizers and dinner entrées.
The company also operates and franchises restaurants under the Texas Roadhouse, Bubba's 33, and Jaggers brands. Texas Roadhouse, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is based in Louisville, Kentucky.
Stock analysis
Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH) currently trades at $196.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $128.55, 35% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $139.98 per share, and 1 of the 26 models we run sit above the $196.45 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $45.44, and 25 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $76.68 (bear) to $167.11 (bull), the price of $196.45 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Texas Roadhouse Inc reported revenue of $5.9B in FY2025 versus $3.5B in FY2021, a compound +14.1%/yr. Reported net income was $406M in FY2025, compounding +13.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $12.9B Large · P/E ratio 31.4 · P/S ratio 2.08 · EPS (TTM) $6.25 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 6.6% · Return on equity 27.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −31% fair-value upside, at −35%, TXRH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$76.68Fair Value $128.55Bull$167.11
Price $196.45 · Downside -34.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.88 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 10 officers or directors sold shares worth $5.3M and none bought.
SaleLloyd Paul MarshallCHIEF GROWTH OFFICER2× since May 14, 2026: 1,500 shares, avg. $187.11$280,665Aug 26, 2026
SaleHugh J CarrollDirector3× since Dec 4, 2025: 2,638 shares, avg. $177.70$468,772Aug 25, 2026
SaleGerald L. MorganCEO, EXECUTIVE VICE CHAIRMAN, Director3× since Jan 12, 2026: 25,000 shares, avg. $197.93$4.9MAug 21, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleDonna E EppsDirector2× since Mar 6, 2026: 1,670 shares, avg. $189.20$315,962Aug 17, 2026
SaleKeith HumpichCHIEF ACCT & FIN SVCS OFFCR819 shares at $204.11$167,166Aug 17, 2026
SaleGregory N MooreDirector4× since Dec 3, 2025: 7,350 shares, avg. $187.39$1.4MAug 11, 2026
SaleSean G RenfroeGENERAL COUNSEL426 shares at $192.53$82,018Jul 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleChristopher C. ColsonCHIEF BUSINESS & ADMIN OFFICER499 shares at $179.22$89,431May 26, 2026
SaleJane Grote AbellDirector339 shares at $177.43$60,149May 18, 2026
SaleCurtis WarfieldDirector2,640 shares at $183.05$483,252May 11, 2026
Plus 2 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 6 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.5% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+20.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+18.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19.9% vs 16.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+18.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.0% a year for the price and +6.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Steady demand shown by consistent restaurant additions and same-store sales growth forms the main strength, while thin gross margins leave the business exposed to commodity cost rises and rival pressure.
Main risk: Texas Roadhouse buys most of its beef from only four suppliers and any shortfall or price spike could raise costs and squeeze restaurant margins.
Bull case: By securing longer-term beef contracts and accelerating its own fast-casual and sports-bar concepts, the company could offset supplier pressure and capture additional traffic.
Bear case: Persistent beef shortages or aggressive expansion by Chili's and LongHorn could raise costs sharply and erode customer traffic enough to stall overall profit growth.
Texas Roadhouse keeps adding restaurants at a 4.9 percent annual rate while same-store sales rise 6.1 percent, showing solid demand. Thin gross margins of 16.4 percent still leave the business exposed when commodity costs climb or rivals fight harder for traffic. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will faster unit growth lift overall profits enough to close that gap, or will margin pressure keep widening it?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 203 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−34.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)27.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets11.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)6.6% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)8.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)31.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B8.86× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.08× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow37.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA18.2× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.64× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 36
FUTURE (revenue growth)56· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)98· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)29· sector 59
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $128.55 versus a price of $196.45, about 35% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TXRH?
Our model-based fair value for Texas Roadhouse Inc is $128.55 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $196.45.
What is the quality score of TXRH?
Texas Roadhouse Inc has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $128.55 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $76.68, optimistic scenario $167.11. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Texas Roadhouse Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $128.55, about 35% lower versus a price of $196.45 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $76.68, optimistic scenario $167.11. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH)?
Texas Roadhouse Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $6.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Texas Roadhouse Inc pay a dividend?
Texas Roadhouse Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 1.46% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Texas Roadhouse Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +18.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.6 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TXRH use?
Our models discount Texas Roadhouse Inc at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.81, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Texas Roadhouse Inc that is +18.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Texas Roadhouse Inc grew +19.6 % a year. The price currently implies +18.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Texas Roadhouse Inc (+18.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.64 %: that much free cash flow Texas Roadhouse Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Texas Roadhouse Inc it is $128.55 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $196.45. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Texas Roadhouse Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, TXRH trades above its calculated fair value: price $196.45, fair value $128.55, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TXRH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($196.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($128.55). For Texas Roadhouse Inc the two are $67.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Texas Roadhouse Inc worth?
The market values Texas Roadhouse Inc at about $12.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $196.45; our models calculate a fair value of $128.55 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TXRH?
Our models span a range for Texas Roadhouse Inc: cautious scenario $76.68, base $128.55, optimistic $167.11 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $196.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TXRH?
Texas Roadhouse Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.4 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $128.55 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 7 of the years ex one-offs: 27.1. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 8.9, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 18.2.
What is the PEG ratio of TXRH?
The PEG ratio of Texas Roadhouse Inc is 1.64 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Texas Roadhouse Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 27.7%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TXRH from its 52-week high?
Texas Roadhouse Inc trades at $196.45, about 8% below its 52-week high of $214.28 and 27% above the low of $155.21 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $128.55 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Texas Roadhouse Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Yum! Brands, Inc, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Texas Roadhouse Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $196.45, calculated fair value $128.55 (−35%), Quality Score 61/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TXRH calculated?
We run Texas Roadhouse Inc through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $128.55, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Texas Roadhouse Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $196.45. Our model-based fair value is $128.55, about 35% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Texas Roadhouse Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($167.11). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($76.68 to $167.11) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH) come from?
Earnings per share at Texas Roadhouse Inc grew +16.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.5 %, EBIT margin +0.4 %, tax rate +2.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Texas Roadhouse Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH)?
The market capitalisation of Texas Roadhouse Inc is $12.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Texas Roadhouse Inc is 2.08 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH)?
Earnings per share at Texas Roadhouse Inc are $6.25 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH)?
The dividend yield of Texas Roadhouse Inc is 1.5% (payout 45.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH)?
The net margin of Texas Roadhouse Inc is 6.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Texas Roadhouse Inc is 27.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Texas Roadhouse Inc is 13.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH)?
The operating margin of Texas Roadhouse Inc is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH)?
Revenue at Texas Roadhouse Inc is growing +11.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH)?
Earnings per share at Texas Roadhouse Inc are growing −0.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Texas Roadhouse Inc (TXRH) carry?
The net debt of Texas Roadhouse Inc is $1.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026