US Foods Holding Corp (USFD) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of US Foods Holding Corp stock $59.95, price $110, that is 45.5% below the price, quality 66 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $26.41 – $110.94 · fair‑value band $39.56 – $82.03 · the $109.93 price screens above the $59.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 3, 2026.
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US Foods Holding Corp., together with its subsidiaries, markets, sells, and distributes fresh, frozen, and dry food and non-food products to foodservice customers in the United States. The company also provides MOXe, an all-in-one foodservice business application.
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Its customers include independently owned single and multi-unit restaurants, regional concepts, national restaurant chains, hospitals, nursing homes, hotels and motels, country clubs, government and military organizations, colleges and universities, and retail locations.
The company was formerly known as USF Holding Corp. and changed its name to US Foods Holding Corp. in February 2016. US Foods Holding Corp. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Rosemont, Illinois.
Stock analysis
US Foods Holding Corp (USFD) currently trades at $109.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $59.95, 45% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $65.62 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the $109.93 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $17.81, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $39.56 (bear) to $82.03 (bull), the price of $109.93 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
US Foods Holding Corp reported revenue of $39.4B in FY2025 versus $29.5B in FY2021, a compound +7.5%/yr. Reported net income was $676M in FY2025, compounding +42.5%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $24.2B Large · P/E ratio 33.8 · P/S ratio 0.60 · EPS (TTM) $3.25 · Net margin 1.8% · Return on equity 16.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.6% · Operating margin 4.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 57% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −45%, USFD screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$39.56Fair Value $59.95Bull$82.03
Price $109.93 · Downside -45.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.76 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $3.6M and none bought.
SaleRandy J TaylorOfficer11,630 shares at $110.37$1.3MAug 13, 2026
SaleWilliam Spencer HancockOfficer21,754 shares at $108.29$2.4MAug 7, 2026
SaleDirk J. LocascioEVP, Chief Financial Officer2× since Feb 25, 2026: 45,101 shares, avg. $94.20$4.2MMar 30, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJames David Works JrOfficer65,737 shares at $96.52$6.3MFeb 18, 2026
SaleSteven GubermanOfficer58,632 shares at $72.00$4.2MNov 11, 2025
Plus 11 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.84/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.5% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+18.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+18.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.18.8% vs 11.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 3%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.6% a year for the price and +1.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The distribution business lacks a durable moat in a competitive sector with thin margins and faces pressure from sharply rising labor expenses.
Main risk: Rising labor costs from the ratified Teamsters contract could squeeze margins if not fully offset by pricing power or volume growth with independent customers.
Bull case: By expanding its MOXe ecommerce platform and AI-driven tools for sales and routing, US Foods could improve efficiency and capture additional share among independent operators despite competitive pressures.
Bear case: If competitors steadily erode its customer base in the independent restaurant segment, US Foods could face ongoing margin compression and slower growth across its core broadline distribution activities.
US Foods just ratified a new Teamsters contract covering hundreds of drivers and warehouse workers with wage increases averaging 66 to 70 percent over four years plus stronger automation protections. In food distribution labor and logistics costs directly shape margins when serving restaurants and institutions at scale. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the added expenses be absorbed through pricing and volume gains with independents or will they squeeze results more than expected?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Food Distribution · 85 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−45.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)1.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)4.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)4.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.18× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Food Distribution median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)33.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B5.63× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.60× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow25.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA16.4× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.91× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 40
FUTURE (revenue growth)23· sector 9
PAST (return on equity)65· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)41· sector 93
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 61
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is US Foods Holding Corp (USFD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $59.95 versus a price of $109.93, about 45% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of USFD?
Our model-based fair value for US Foods Holding Corp is $59.95 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $109.93.
What is the quality score of USFD?
US Foods Holding Corp has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for US Foods Holding Corp (USFD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $59.95 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $39.56, optimistic scenario $82.03. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the US Foods Holding Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $59.95, about 45% lower versus a price of $109.93 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $39.56, optimistic scenario $82.03. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of US Foods Holding Corp (USFD)?
US Foods Holding Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $40.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into US Foods Holding Corp (USFD)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, US Foods Holding Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +15.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.5 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of USFD use?
Our models discount US Foods Holding Corp at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.86, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For US Foods Holding Corp that is +15.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has US Foods Holding Corp (USFD) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at US Foods Holding Corp grew +11.5 % a year. The price currently implies +15.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of US Foods Holding Corp (USFD) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into US Foods Holding Corp (+15.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of US Foods Holding Corp (USFD)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.96 %: that much free cash flow US Foods Holding Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of US Foods Holding Corp (USFD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For US Foods Holding Corp it is $59.95 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $109.93. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is US Foods Holding Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, USFD trades above its calculated fair value: price $109.93, fair value $59.95, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of USFD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($109.93); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($59.95). For US Foods Holding Corp the two are $49.98 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is US Foods Holding Corp worth?
The market values US Foods Holding Corp at about $24.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $109.93; our models calculate a fair value of $59.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about USFD?
Our models span a range for US Foods Holding Corp: cautious scenario $39.56, base $59.95, optimistic $82.03 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $109.93). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of USFD?
US Foods Holding Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 33.8 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $59.95 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 6 of the years ex one-offs: 23.9. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 5.6, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 16.4.
What is the PEG ratio of USFD?
The PEG ratio of US Foods Holding Corp is 0.91 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of US Foods Holding Corp (USFD)?
Balance-sheet figures for US Foods Holding Corp (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 16.4%, debt of 1.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is USFD from its 52-week high?
US Foods Holding Corp trades at $109.93, about 1% below its 52-week high of $110.94 and 57% above the low of $70.05 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $59.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to US Foods Holding Corp?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Sysco Corporation, Performance Food Group, Jerónimo Martins, SGPS, S.A, CP Axtra Public Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is US Foods Holding Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $109.93, calculated fair value $59.95 (−45%), Quality Score 66/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of USFD calculated?
We run US Foods Holding Corp through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $59.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. US Foods Holding Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of US Foods Holding Corp (USFD)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $109.93. Our model-based fair value is $59.95, about 45% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with US Foods Holding Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($82.03). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($39.56 to $82.03) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of US Foods Holding Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of US Foods Holding Corp (USFD)?
The market capitalisation of US Foods Holding Corp is $24.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of US Foods Holding Corp (USFD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of US Foods Holding Corp is 0.60 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of US Foods Holding Corp (USFD)?
Earnings per share at US Foods Holding Corp are $3.25 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 33.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of US Foods Holding Corp (USFD)?
The net margin of US Foods Holding Corp is 1.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of US Foods Holding Corp (USFD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of US Foods Holding Corp is 16.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of US Foods Holding Corp (USFD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of US Foods Holding Corp is 6.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of US Foods Holding Corp (USFD)?
The operating margin of US Foods Holding Corp is 4.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at US Foods Holding Corp (USFD)?
Revenue at US Foods Holding Corp is growing +4.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at US Foods Holding Corp (USFD)?
Earnings per share at US Foods Holding Corp are growing +29.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does US Foods Holding Corp (USFD) carry?
The net debt of US Foods Holding Corp is $5.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 3, 2026