Walmart Inc. (WMT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Walmart Inc. stock $50.15, price $128, that is 60.7% below the price, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $37.47 – $133.88 · fair‑value band $29.46 – $68.14 · the $127.72 price screens above the $50.15 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Walmart Inc. engages in the operation of retail and wholesale stores and clubs, ecommerce websites, and mobile applications worldwide.
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The company operates through three segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International, and Sam's Club U.S. It operates supercenters, supermarkets, warehouse clubs, cash and carry stores, and discount stores under Walmart and Walmart Neighborhood Market brands; membership-only warehouse clubs; and ecommerce websites, such as walmart.com.mx, walmart.ca, flipkart.com, PhonePe and other sites.
It offers grocery items, including dry grocery, snacks, dairy, meat, produce, deli and bakery, frozen foods, alcoholic and nonalcoholic beverages, as well as consumables, such as health and beauty aids, pet supplies, household chemicals, paper goods, and baby products; and fuel and other categories.
In addition, it is involved in the provision of health and wellness products covering pharmacy, optical and hearing services, over-the-counter drugs, and protein and nutrition products; and home, hardlines, and seasonal items, including home improvement, outdoor living, gardening, furniture, apparel, jewelry, tools and power equipment, housewares, toys, and mattresses.
Further, the company offers consumer electronics and accessories, software, video games, office supplies, appliances, and third-party gift cards.
Additionally, it operates digital payment platforms; offers financial services and related products, including money transfers, bill payments, money orders, check cashing, prepaid access, co-branded credit cards, installment lending, and earned wage access; and markets lines of merchandise under private and licensed brands.
The company was formerly known as Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. and changed its name to Walmart Inc. in February 2018. Walmart Inc. was founded in 1945 and is based in Bentonville, Arkansas.
Stock analysis
Walmart Inc. (WMT) currently trades at $127.72, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $50.15, 61% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $50.80 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $127.72 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.97, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $29.46 (bear) to $68.14 (bull), the price of $127.72 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Walmart Inc. reported revenue of $713B in FY2026 versus $573B in FY2022, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was $21.9B in FY2026, compounding +12.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $1.0T Mega · P/E ratio 46.6 · P/S ratio 1.39 · EPS (TTM) $2.74 · Dividend yield 0.8% · Net margin 3.0% · Return on equity 22.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −61%, WMT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$29.46Fair Value $50.15Bull$68.14
Price $127.72 · Downside -60.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.36 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 8 officers or directors sold shares worth $40.5M and none bought.
SaleDaniel J BartlettExecutive Vice President13× since Nov 17, 2025: 29,764 shares, avg. $114.79$3.4MNov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleSuresh KumarChief Technology Officer166,342 shares at $123.21$20.5MOct 30, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJohn R. FurnerPresident & CEO, Director9× since Nov 20, 2025: 118,125 shares, avg. $118.54$14.0MOct 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleChristopher James NicholasExecutive Vice President8× since Feb 20, 2026: 54,382 shares, avg. $119.90$6.5MOct 15, 2026
SaleLatriece WatkinsExecutive Vice President3× since Feb 20, 2026: 26,000 shares, avg. $119.16$3.1MOct 14, 2026
SaleDaniel DankerExecutive Vice President2× since Jan 14, 2026: 55,009 shares, avg. $106.53$5.9MAug 26, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleWalton Family Holdings Trust10% owner12× since Nov 21, 2025: 24,176,448 shares, avg. $119.09$2.9BJun 16, 2026
SaleDavid W GugginaExecutive Vice President11,978 shares at $119.82$1.4MJun 10, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleC Douglas McMillonDirector7× since Nov 28, 2025: 135,912 shares, avg. $120.18$16.3MMay 28, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJohn D RaineyExecutive Vice President3× since Dec 1, 2025: 42,200 shares, avg. $124.31$5.2MMar 2, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 3 more entries from the last 12 months.
Plus 59 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.69/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.0% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+12.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.10.9% vs 6.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 4%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.3% a year for the price and +1.8% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Moderate moat from operational scale in discount retail forms the main strength, yet limited innovation signals and a model that constrains power remain the central weakness.
Main risk: Amazon could capture more customer discovery and transactions through its platform and Prime ecosystem, squeezing Walmart's online sales growth and grocery margins.
Bull case: Walmart could leverage its scale, AI agent integrations and fulfillment investments to retain customers and gain share from rivals by offering seamless omnichannel value.
Bear case: Rivals such as Amazon and Aldi could steadily take grocery and online share while regulatory pressures raise costs, leaving Walmart with thinner margins and slower growth.
Walmart is introducing tools that let third-party AI agents browse and complete purchases directly on its platforms. This positions the retailer to capture volume from the rise of agentic shopping while it also expands bundled memberships to lock in loyalty. Our models see it as overvalued. Will the added reach and efficiency from AI outweigh the risk that external agents erode direct customer control and margins?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Discount Stores · 23 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Above median
Fair Value upside−60.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)22.3% · Above median
Return on assets7.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)3.0% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)3.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)5.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.8% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.35× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Discount Stores median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Walmart Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/WMT
Frequently asked questions
Is Walmart Inc. (WMT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $50.15 versus a price of $127.72, about 61% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of WMT?
Our model-based fair value for Walmart Inc. is $50.15 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $127.72.
What is the quality score of WMT?
Walmart Inc. has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Walmart Inc. (WMT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $50.15 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $29.46, optimistic scenario $68.14. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Walmart Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $50.15, about 61% lower versus a price of $127.72 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $29.46, optimistic scenario $68.14. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Walmart Inc. (WMT)?
Walmart Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $736B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Walmart Inc. pay a dividend?
Walmart Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.76% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Walmart Inc. (WMT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Walmart Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +27.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.0 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of WMT use?
Our models discount Walmart Inc. at 7.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 0.58, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Walmart Inc. that is +27.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Walmart Inc. (WMT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Walmart Inc. grew +5.0 % a year. The price currently implies +27.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Walmart Inc. (WMT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Walmart Inc. (+27.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Walmart Inc. (WMT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.46 %: that much free cash flow Walmart Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Walmart Inc. (WMT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Walmart Inc. it is $50.15 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $127.72. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Walmart Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, WMT trades above its calculated fair value: price $127.72, fair value $50.15, a gap of about −61% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of WMT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($127.72); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($50.15). For Walmart Inc. the two are $77.57 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Walmart Inc. worth?
The market values Walmart Inc. at about $1.0T (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $127.72; our models calculate a fair value of $50.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about WMT?
Our models span a range for Walmart Inc.: cautious scenario $29.46, base $50.15, optimistic $68.14 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $127.72). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of WMT?
Walmart Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 46.6 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $50.15 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 4.2, P/B 10.3, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 23.8.
What is the PEG ratio of WMT?
The PEG ratio of Walmart Inc. is 4.22 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Walmart Inc. (WMT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Walmart Inc. (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 22.3%, debt of 0.35 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is WMT from its 52-week high?
Walmart Inc. trades at $127.72, about 5% below its 52-week high of $133.88 and 28% above the low of $99.77 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $50.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Walmart Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Costco Wholesale Corporation, Target Corporation, Dollarama Inc, Dollar General Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Walmart Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $127.72, calculated fair value $50.15 (−61%), Quality Score 64/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of WMT calculated?
We run Walmart Inc. through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $50.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Walmart Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Walmart Inc. (WMT)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $127.72. Our model-based fair value is $50.15, about 61% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Walmart Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($68.14). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($29.46 to $68.14) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Walmart Inc. (WMT) come from?
Earnings per share at Walmart Inc. grew +4.7 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.8 %, EBIT margin −2.1 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Walmart Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Walmart Inc. (WMT)?
The market capitalisation of Walmart Inc. is $1.0T. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Walmart Inc. (WMT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Walmart Inc. is 1.39 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Walmart Inc. (WMT)?
Earnings per share at Walmart Inc. are $2.74 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 46.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Walmart Inc. (WMT)?
The dividend yield of Walmart Inc. is 0.8% (payout 35.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Walmart Inc. (WMT)?
The net margin of Walmart Inc. is 3.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Walmart Inc. (WMT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Walmart Inc. is 22.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Walmart Inc. (WMT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Walmart Inc. is 10.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Walmart Inc. (WMT)?
The operating margin of Walmart Inc. is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Walmart Inc. (WMT)?
Revenue at Walmart Inc. is growing +5.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Walmart Inc. (WMT)?
Earnings per share at Walmart Inc. are growing −9.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Walmart Inc. (WMT) carry?
The net debt of Walmart Inc. is $56.4B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 3.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026