Yum! Brands Inc (YUM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Yum! Brands Inc stock $73.05, price $166, that is 56.0% below the price, quality 68 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 21 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $97.48 – $166.65 · fair‑value band $39.26 – $127.50 · the $166.09 price screens above the $73.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Yum! Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, operates, and franchises traditional and non-traditional quick service restaurants in the United States, China, and internationally.
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The company operates in four segments: KFC Division, Taco Bell Division, Pizza Hut Division, and Habit Burger & Grill Division.
It also operates restaurants under the KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, and Habit Burger & Grill brands, which specialize in chicken, Mexican-style food and pizza categories, made-to-order chargrilled burgers, sandwiches, and other products.
The company was formerly known as TRICON Global Restaurants, Inc. and changed its name to Yum! Brands, Inc. in May 2002. Yum! Brands, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.
Stock analysis
Yum! Brands Inc (YUM) currently trades at $166.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $73.05, 56% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $96.30 per share, and 0 of the 20 models we run sit above the $166.09 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $17.31, and 20 of the 20 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $39.26 (bear) to $127.50 (bull), the price of $166.09 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Yum! Brands Inc reported revenue of $8.2B in FY2025 versus $6.6B in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was $1.6B in FY2025, compounding −0.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $46.3B Large · P/E ratio 13.4 · P/S ratio 5.27 · EPS (TTM) $12.42 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 39.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 35.4% · Operating margin 32.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 87 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
Analysts expect earnings well below the last reported figure (earnings in transition, for example expiring patents or contracts); a fair value that looks fair on trailing earnings may then be too optimistic.
The share trades at its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −56%, YUM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$39.26Fair Value $73.05Bull$127.50
Price $166.09 · Downside -56.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($9.94 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Plus 10 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.81/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+9.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
From 2014 to 2025, about 73% of the growth in earnings per share came from share buybacks, and equity is negative: the buybacks are partly paid with debt. That cannot be repeated indefinitely.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%
Per share before 2016divided by the spin-off factor 1.391
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.6.3% vs 10.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 31%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.6% a year for the price and −1.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: The franchise system and established brands form the main strength, while high leverage together with negative equity remain the central weakness.
Main risk: Specialized chicken chains such as Raising Cane’s and Wingstop could draw US customers away from KFC and pressure its same-store sales and margins.
Bull case: By deepening its own digital platforms and supplier partnerships Yum could strengthen franchisee economics and defend market share against specialized rivals through faster innovation and reliable supply.
Bear case: If specialized chicken chains continue gaining US share and supplier issues persist, Yum might face sustained pressure on KFC volumes and higher operating costs across its franchise system.
Yum Brands completed the divestiture of Pizza Hut earlier this year, leaving it with a tighter focus on KFC, Taco Bell and Habit Burger Grill. International KFC unit growth and Taco Bell's market share gains look promising, while US consumer caution and any domestic KFC recovery still pose questions. Will the cleaner structure accelerate same-store sales and expansion, or will execution risks around the remaining brands hold back results?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 200 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−56.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets19.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)39.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)32.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)13.4× · Cheapest 25%
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Yum! Brands Inc (YUM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $73.05 versus a price of $166.09, about 56% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of YUM?
Our model-based fair value for Yum! Brands Inc is $73.05 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $166.09.
What is the quality score of YUM?
Yum! Brands Inc has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Yum! Brands Inc (YUM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $73.05 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $39.26, optimistic scenario $127.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Yum! Brands Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $73.05, about 56% lower versus a price of $166.09 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $39.26, optimistic scenario $127.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Yum! Brands Inc (YUM)?
Yum! Brands Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $8.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Yum! Brands Inc pay a dividend?
Yum! Brands Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.45% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Yum! Brands Inc (YUM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Yum! Brands Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +15.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.8 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of YUM use?
Our models discount Yum! Brands Inc at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.53, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Yum! Brands Inc that is +15.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Yum! Brands Inc (YUM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Yum! Brands Inc grew +7.8 % a year. The price currently implies +15.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Yum! Brands Inc (YUM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Yum! Brands Inc (+15.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Yum! Brands Inc (YUM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.54 %: that much free cash flow Yum! Brands Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Yum! Brands Inc (YUM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Yum! Brands Inc it is $73.05 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $166.09. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Yum! Brands Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, YUM trades above its calculated fair value: price $166.09, fair value $73.05, a gap of about −56% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of YUM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($166.09); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($73.05). For Yum! Brands Inc the two are $93.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Yum! Brands Inc worth?
The market values Yum! Brands Inc at about $46.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $166.09; our models calculate a fair value of $73.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about YUM?
Our models span a range for Yum! Brands Inc: cautious scenario $39.26, base $73.05, optimistic $127.50 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $166.09). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of YUM?
Yum! Brands Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.4 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $73.05 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2016, FY2020 ex one-offs: 26.2. Other multiples: PEG 2.1, P/S 5.3, EV/EBITDA 18.9.
What is the PEG ratio of YUM?
The PEG ratio of Yum! Brands Inc is 2.11 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Yum! Brands Inc (YUM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Yum! Brands Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is YUM from its 52-week high?
Yum! Brands Inc trades at $166.09, at its 52-week high of $166.65 and 22% above the low of $135.75 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $73.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Yum! Brands Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, Restaurant Brands International Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Yum! Brands Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $166.09, calculated fair value $73.05 (−56%), Quality Score 68/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of YUM calculated?
We run Yum! Brands Inc through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $73.05, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Yum! Brands Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Yum! Brands Inc (YUM)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $166.09. Our model-based fair value is $73.05, about 56% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Yum! Brands Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($127.50). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($39.26 to $127.50). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Yum! Brands Inc (YUM) come from?
Earnings per share at Yum! Brands Inc grew +6.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.3 %, EBIT margin +6.7 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Yum! Brands Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Yum! Brands Inc (YUM)?
The market capitalisation of Yum! Brands Inc is $46.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Yum! Brands Inc (YUM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Yum! Brands Inc is 5.27 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Yum! Brands Inc (YUM)?
Earnings per share at Yum! Brands Inc are $12.42 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Yum! Brands Inc (YUM)?
The dividend yield of Yum! Brands Inc is 0.5% (payout 6.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Yum! Brands Inc (YUM)?
The net margin of Yum! Brands Inc is 39.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Yum! Brands Inc (YUM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Yum! Brands Inc is 35.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Yum! Brands Inc (YUM)?
The operating margin of Yum! Brands Inc is 32.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Yum! Brands Inc (YUM)?
Revenue at Yum! Brands Inc is growing +3.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Yum! Brands Inc (YUM)?
Earnings per share at Yum! Brands Inc are growing +320% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Yum! Brands Inc (YUM) carry?
The net debt of Yum! Brands Inc is $11.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026