Guosen Securities Co Ltd (002736) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Guosen Securities Co Ltd stock ¥15.33, price ¥9.16, upside +67.4%, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥6.81 – ¥14.90 · fair‑value band ¥11.01 – ¥19.17 · the ¥9.16 price screens below the ¥15.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. provides financial products and services to individual and institutional clients in China. It operates through Brokerage and Wealth Management; Investment Banking; Investment and Trading; Asset Management; and Other segments.
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The company offers securities brokerage, futures brokerage, agency sales of financial products, asset custody, investment consulting, margin trading, and other capital intermediary services, as well as stock underwriting and sponsorship, bond underwriting, mergers and acquisitions, and restructuring services.
It also engages in the investment and trading of equity, fixed income, alternative investment, derivatives, and other financial products; and development of asset management products, including asset management, private equity fund management, and fund management business.
Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. was formerly known as Shenzhen Guotou Securities Co., Ltd. The company was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Stock analysis
Guosen Securities Co Ltd (002736) currently trades at ¥9.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥15.33, implying the stock looks roughly 40% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ¥14.05 per share, and 5 of the 6 models we run sit above the ¥9.16 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥8.55, and 1 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥11.01 (bear) to ¥19.17 (bull), the price of ¥9.16 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Guosen Securities Co Ltd reported revenue of 23.7B CNY in FY2025 versus 28.0B CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.1%/yr. Reported net income was 11.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding +2.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 93.8B CNY (≈ $14.1B) Large · P/E ratio 9.1 · P/S ratio 3.67 · EPS (TTM) ¥1.01 · Dividend yield 4.9% · Net margin 44.8% · Return on equity 9.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 67%, 002736 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥11.01Fair Value ¥15.33Bull¥19.17
Price ¥9.16 · Upside +67.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.4756 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.9% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +5.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+0.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.5% vs 4.4%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.35% → 35%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 62% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.2% a year for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (2 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: The business shows average quality with limited public signals, its main strength in capital access amid the sector shift to larger brokers while the main weak point remains modest returns and unclear durability from thin evidence.
Main risk: Repeated warnings and fines from Chinese and Hong Kong regulators for inadequate supervision of bond funds, client asset handling and false disclosures could restrict business activities or increase compliance costs in brokerage and investment banking.
Bull case: The company could leverage its parent support and scale through acquisitions to meet stricter rules while adopting KI tools internally to cut costs and improve client services in wealth management.
Bear case: Ongoing regulatory restrictions combined with intensified competition from larger peers and digital platforms could limit growth in core brokerage and investment banking while squeezing margins across services.
Guosen Securities just raised three billion yuan through new bond issues while managing multiple interest payments and redemptions. Our models see the shares as undervalued amid the sector's push toward larger brokers. Will the fresh capital mainly support growth in wealth management and institutional business or simply meet higher regulatory requirements?
Compare Guosen Securities Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Financial Conglomerates · 49 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+67.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.1% · Below median
Return on assets1.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)44.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)56.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)28.6% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.31× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Financial Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Guosen Securities Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/002736
Frequently asked questions
Is Guosen Securities Co Ltd (002736) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥15.33 versus a price of ¥9.16, about +67% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 002736?
Our model-based fair value for Guosen Securities Co Ltd is ¥15.33 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥9.16.
What is the quality score of 002736?
Guosen Securities Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Guosen Securities Co Ltd (002736)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥15.33 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥11.01, optimistic scenario ¥19.17. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Guosen Securities Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥15.33, about +67% upside versus a price of ¥9.16 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥11.01, optimistic scenario ¥19.17. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Guosen Securities Co Ltd (002736)?
Guosen Securities Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 25.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Guosen Securities Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Guosen Securities Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 4.91% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Guosen Securities Co Ltd (002736)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Guosen Securities Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.4 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 002736 use?
Our models discount Guosen Securities Co Ltd at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Guosen Securities Co Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Guosen Securities Co Ltd (002736) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Guosen Securities Co Ltd grew +1.4 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Guosen Securities Co Ltd (002736) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Guosen Securities Co Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Guosen Securities Co Ltd (002736)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.83 %: that much free cash flow Guosen Securities Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Guosen Securities Co Ltd (002736)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Guosen Securities Co Ltd it is ¥15.33 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of ¥9.16. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Guosen Securities Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 002736 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥9.16, fair value ¥15.33, a gap of about +67% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 002736?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥9.16); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥15.33). For Guosen Securities Co Ltd the two are ¥6.17 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Guosen Securities Co Ltd worth?
The market values Guosen Securities Co Ltd at about 93.8B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is ¥9.16; our models calculate a fair value of ¥15.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 002736?
Our models span a range for Guosen Securities Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥11.01, base ¥15.33, optimistic ¥19.17 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price ¥9.16). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 002736?
Guosen Securities Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.1 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥15.33 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 17.3. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 3.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Guosen Securities Co Ltd (002736)?
Balance-sheet figures for Guosen Securities Co Ltd (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 9.1%, debt of 0.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 002736 from its 52-week high?
Guosen Securities Co Ltd trades at ¥9.16, about 33% below its 52-week high of ¥13.76 and 8% above the low of ¥8.52 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥15.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Guosen Securities Co Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value ORIX Corporation, Bajaj Finserv Ltd, China Galaxy Securities Co, CNPC Capital Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Guosen Securities Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price ¥9.16, calculated fair value ¥15.33 (+67%), Quality Score 67/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 002736 calculated?
We run Guosen Securities Co Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥15.33, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Guosen Securities Co Ltd currently trades 40% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Guosen Securities Co Ltd (002736)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ¥9.16. Our model-based fair value is ¥15.33, about +67% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Guosen Securities Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥11.01). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (67/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Guosen Securities Co Ltd (002736) come from?
Earnings per share at Guosen Securities Co Ltd grew −1.6 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.9 %, EBIT margin −6.7 %, tax rate +2.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Guosen Securities Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Guosen Securities Co Ltd (002736)?
The market capitalisation of Guosen Securities Co Ltd is 93.8B CNY (≈ $14.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Guosen Securities Co Ltd (002736)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Guosen Securities Co Ltd is 3.67 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Guosen Securities Co Ltd (002736)?
Earnings per share at Guosen Securities Co Ltd are ¥1.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Guosen Securities Co Ltd (002736)?
The dividend yield of Guosen Securities Co Ltd is 4.9% (payout 44.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Guosen Securities Co Ltd (002736)?
The net margin of Guosen Securities Co Ltd is 44.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Guosen Securities Co Ltd (002736)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Guosen Securities Co Ltd is 9.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Guosen Securities Co Ltd (002736)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Guosen Securities Co Ltd is 2.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Guosen Securities Co Ltd (002736)?
The operating margin of Guosen Securities Co Ltd is 56.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Guosen Securities Co Ltd (002736)?
Revenue at Guosen Securities Co Ltd is growing +28.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Guosen Securities Co Ltd (002736)?
Earnings per share at Guosen Securities Co Ltd are growing +19.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Guosen Securities Co Ltd (002736) hold?
Guosen Securities Co Ltd holds more cash than debt, 58.2B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 5, 2026