Orient Overseas International Ltd (0316) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Orient Overseas International Ltd stock HK$133, price HK$147, that is 9.2% below the price, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$44.17 – HK$176.90 · fair‑value band HK$81.46 – HK$179.49 · the HK$146.50 price screens above the HK$132.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Orient Overseas (International) Limited, an investment holding company, provides container transport and logistics services in Asia, Europe, North and South America, Australia, and Africa.
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It offers supply chain management services; containerized shipping services in various trade lanes comprising Trans-Pacific, Trans-Atlantic, Asia/Europe, Asia/ Australia, and Intra-Asia trades; and integrated services.
The company is involved in shipping and logistics software application development; container transport, equipment owning and leasing, container depot and warehousing, portfolio investment, trucking, ship owning and chartering, terminal operating, cargo consolidation and forwarding, transportation and freight agency, liner agency, property owning, and ship management and vessels operation businesses; and provision of corporate services.
In addition, it offers AI and blockchain digital data on network applications, and platform design services. The company was incorporated in 1986 and is based in Wan Chai, Hong Kong. Orient Overseas (International) Limited operates as a subsidiary of Faulkner Global Holdings Limited.
Stock analysis
Orient Overseas International Ltd (0316) currently trades at HK$146.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$132.96, 9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$339.85 per share, and 19 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$146.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$34.67, and 7 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: HK$81.46 (bear) to HK$179.49 (bull), the price of HK$146.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Orient Overseas International Ltd reported revenue of $9.7B in FY2025 versus $16.8B in FY2021, a compound −12.8%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding −32.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$96.7B (≈ $12.3B) Large · P/E ratio 10.2 · P/S ratio 1.59 · Dividend yield 5.2% · Net margin 15.6% · Return on equity 9.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 25.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin 13.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at −9%, 0316 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$81.46Fair Value HK$132.96BullHK$179.49
Price HK$146.50 · Downside -9.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCFHK$75.97HK$95.18HK$121.8980
Growth DCFHK$76.24HK$92.85HK$114.4378
Owner EarningsHK$85.78HK$109.80HK$143.1976
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFHK$75.97HK$95.18HK$121.8980
Owner EarningsHK$85.78HK$109.80HK$143.1976
5Y Revenue ExitHK$125.50HK$192.61HK$280.0870
5Y EBITDA ExitHK$188.54HK$311.50HK$457.6472
5Y P/E ExitHK$206.87HK$346.08HK$494.7268
10Y Revenue ExitHK$101.81HK$155.76HK$231.0364
10Y EBITDA ExitHK$142.98HK$233.38HK$358.8565
10Y P/E ExitHK$153.96HK$255.96HK$385.5461
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddHK$122.35HK$397.61HK$531.0362
Lynch FVHK$88.80HK$126.85HK$164.9159
PEG = 1.0HK$88.80HK$126.85HK$164.9155
EPVHK$140.73HK$155.64HK$168.2174
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMHK$129.85HK$241.71HK$342.4665
DDM Multi-StageHK$129.85HK$208.88HK$257.2865
Multiples
P/E MultipleHK$283.39HK$377.86HK$472.3263
P/S MultipleHK$173.38HK$231.17HK$288.9758
P/B MultipleHK$102.06HK$136.08HK$170.0955
EV/EBITHK$197.67HK$256.36HK$315.0566
EV/EBITDAHK$271.48HK$354.77HK$438.0667
EV/RevenueHK$147.27HK$201.13HK$254.9854
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)HK$22.88HK$34.67HK$43.3354
Growth DCF
Growth DCFHK$76.24HK$92.85HK$114.4378
Rev-Margin DCFHK$125.50HK$191.10HK$266.7370
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeHK$139.77HK$155.34HK$185.6974
ROIC CompounderHK$140.73HK$155.64HK$176.7570
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EHK$237.89HK$339.85HK$441.8065
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−21.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.0% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+14.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.7% vs 17.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−2.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.1% a year for the price and −4.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (36 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Orient Overseas International Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Marine Shipping · 220 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−9.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)9.5% · Above median
Return on assets8.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)12.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)13.9% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.2% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orient Overseas International Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0316
Frequently asked questions
Is Orient Overseas International Ltd (0316) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$132.96 versus a price of HK$146.50, about 9% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0316?
Our model-based fair value for Orient Overseas International Ltd is HK$132.96 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$146.50.
What is the quality score of 0316?
Orient Overseas International Ltd has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orient Overseas International Ltd (0316)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$132.96 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$81.46, optimistic scenario HK$179.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orient Overseas International Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$132.96, about 9% lower versus a price of HK$146.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario HK$81.46, optimistic scenario HK$179.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orient Overseas International Ltd (0316)?
Orient Overseas International Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $10.0B (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Orient Overseas International Ltd pay a dividend?
Orient Overseas International Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 5.16% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Orient Overseas International Ltd (0316) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Orient Overseas International Ltd pays a dividend of HK$7.57 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 10, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2019. The payout ratio is 89.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.23 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into Orient Overseas International Ltd (0316)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Orient Overseas International Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +10.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.5 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0316 use?
Our models discount Orient Overseas International Ltd at 10.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.28, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Orient Overseas International Ltd that is +10.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Orient Overseas International Ltd (0316) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Orient Overseas International Ltd grew +3.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +10.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Orient Overseas International Ltd (0316) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Orient Overseas International Ltd (+10.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Orient Overseas International Ltd (0316)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.55 %: that much free cash flow Orient Overseas International Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Orient Overseas International Ltd (0316)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orient Overseas International Ltd it is HK$132.96 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of HK$146.50. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Orient Overseas International Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, 0316 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$146.50, fair value HK$132.96, a gap of about −9% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0316?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$146.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$132.96). For Orient Overseas International Ltd the two are HK$13.54 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orient Overseas International Ltd worth?
The market values Orient Overseas International Ltd at about HK$96.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is HK$146.50; our models calculate a fair value of HK$132.96 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0316?
Our models span a range for Orient Overseas International Ltd: cautious scenario HK$81.46, base HK$132.96, optimistic HK$179.49 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price HK$146.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 0316?
Orient Overseas International Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.2 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$132.96 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 6.9. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 0.9, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 6.3.
What is the PEG ratio of 0316?
The PEG ratio of Orient Overseas International Ltd is 1.53 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orient Overseas International Ltd (0316)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orient Overseas International Ltd (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 9.5%. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0316 from its 52-week high?
Orient Overseas International Ltd trades at HK$146.50, about 17% below its 52-week high of HK$176.90 and 25% above the low of HK$117.39 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$132.96 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orient Overseas International Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft,, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orient Overseas International Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price HK$146.50, calculated fair value HK$132.96 (−9%), Quality Score 56/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0316 calculated?
We run Orient Overseas International Ltd through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$132.96 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Orient Overseas International Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orient Overseas International Ltd (0316)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was HK$146.50. Our model-based fair value is HK$132.96, about 9% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orient Overseas International Ltd right now?
A fairly wide model range (HK$81.46 to HK$179.49) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Orient Overseas International Ltd (0316) come from?
Earnings per share at Orient Overseas International Ltd grew +21.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.0 %, EBIT margin +13.4 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Orient Overseas International Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Orient Overseas International Ltd (0316)?
The market capitalisation of Orient Overseas International Ltd is HK$96.7B (≈ $12.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orient Overseas International Ltd (0316)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orient Overseas International Ltd is 1.59 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Orient Overseas International Ltd (0316)?
The dividend yield of Orient Overseas International Ltd is 5.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Orient Overseas International Ltd (0316)?
The net margin of Orient Overseas International Ltd is 15.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orient Overseas International Ltd (0316)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orient Overseas International Ltd is 9.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orient Overseas International Ltd (0316)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orient Overseas International Ltd is 25.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orient Overseas International Ltd (0316)?
The operating margin of Orient Overseas International Ltd is 13.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orient Overseas International Ltd (0316)?
Revenue at Orient Overseas International Ltd is growing +6.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −21.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orient Overseas International Ltd (0316)?
Earnings per share at Orient Overseas International Ltd are growing −23.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Orient Overseas International Ltd (0316) hold?
Orient Overseas International Ltd holds more cash than debt, $1.8B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 9, 2026