SAIC Motor Corp Ltd (600104) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of SAIC Motor Corp Ltd stock ¥20.92, price ¥10.68, upside +95.9%, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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The stock costs 49% less than our calculation considers fair.
Fair value ¥20.92 · Strongly undervalued (49%)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
2.5% dividend yield · Well covered
Ranks above peers(9/13)
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 62% above the price (¥17.30).
Quality 53/100
Mixed Growth(revenue 5y −2.4 %/yr in CNY)
Thin margins · 1.4% net margin (TTM)
Some data
Narrow moat29/100
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Small free float
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Chinese passenger-car retail sales fell 26 percent year on year🚩Rivals like BYD erode market share🚩Export tariffs and trade barriers🚩Dependence on struggling joint ventures
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥9.73 – ¥21.58 · fair‑value band ¥17.30 – ¥27.20 · the ¥10.68 price screens below the ¥20.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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SAIC Motor Corporation Limited engages in the research and development, production, and sale of vehicles and their parts in the China and internationally. The company operates through Vehicles & Components and Financial Services segments.
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Its Vehicles & Components segment produces and sells complete vehicles and components. The Financial Services segment engages in financial services. SAIC Motor Corporation Limited was founded in 1997 and is based in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
SAIC Motor Corporation Limited is a subsidiary of Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (Group) Corp.
Stock analysis
SAIC Motor Corp Ltd (600104) currently trades at ¥10.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥20.92, implying the stock looks roughly 49% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥30.50 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥10.68 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥3.42, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥17.30 (bear) to ¥27.20 (bull), the price of ¥10.68 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2001: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2001.
SAIC Motor Corp Ltd reported revenue of 656B CNY in FY2025 versus 780B CNY in FY2021, a compound −4.2%/yr. Reported net income was 10.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding −19.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 123B CNY (≈ $18.4B) Large · P/E ratio 13.2 · P/S ratio 0.19 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.8100 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 1.4% · Return on equity 4.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 29 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 7% fair-value upside, at 96%, 600104 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥17.30Fair Value ¥20.92Bull¥27.20
Price ¥10.68 · Upside +95.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.4605 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2001: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2001.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.2% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−13.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−16.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Per share before 2001divided by the spin-off factor 1.0878
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−16.1% vs −10.6%, slowing
Profit margin 1994 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.33% → 2%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.1% a year for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: SAIC benefits from export momentum and joint-venture electrification efforts that may cushion home-market softness, yet low returns and a commoditized position leave only a weak moat.
Main risk: Domestic Chinese rivals such as BYD could continue gaining share in the NEV segment through aggressive pricing and faster innovation, pressuring SAIC's joint-venture volumes and independent-brand margins.
Bull case: By accelerating independent NEV platforms, deepening partnerships such as with Huawei for intelligent features and shifting exports to hybrids, SAIC could reduce joint-venture reliance and capture overseas growth despite domestic pressures.
Bear case: If joint-venture performance continues to deteriorate and export tariffs intensify while domestic rivals maintain pricing pressure, SAIC's overall volumes and profitability could decline further as its traditional strengths lose relevance.
SAIC Motor’s September sales dropped 7.7 percent overall, yet overseas volumes jumped 49 percent and new-energy vehicles rose 19 percent. Its joint ventures and export focus show how international growth and electrification may counter weaker home-market demand. Will overseas momentum outweigh the domestic slowdown?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 109 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside+95.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.8% · Below median
Return on assets1.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)2.4% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)1.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−0.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.07× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SAIC Motor Corp Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600104
Frequently asked questions
Is SAIC Motor Corp Ltd (600104) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥20.92 versus a price of ¥10.68, about +96% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 600104?
Our model-based fair value for SAIC Motor Corp Ltd is ¥20.92 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥10.68.
What is the quality score of 600104?
SAIC Motor Corp Ltd has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SAIC Motor Corp Ltd (600104)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥20.92 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥17.30, optimistic scenario ¥27.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SAIC Motor Corp Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥20.92, about +96% upside versus a price of ¥10.68 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥17.30, optimistic scenario ¥27.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SAIC Motor Corp Ltd (600104)?
SAIC Motor Corp Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 655B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does SAIC Motor Corp Ltd pay a dividend?
SAIC Motor Corp Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.49% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into SAIC Motor Corp Ltd (600104)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SAIC Motor Corp Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.4 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 600104 use?
Our models discount SAIC Motor Corp Ltd at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.10, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SAIC Motor Corp Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SAIC Motor Corp Ltd (600104) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SAIC Motor Corp Ltd grew -2.4 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SAIC Motor Corp Ltd (600104) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SAIC Motor Corp Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SAIC Motor Corp Ltd (600104)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.20 %: that much free cash flow SAIC Motor Corp Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SAIC Motor Corp Ltd (600104)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SAIC Motor Corp Ltd it is ¥20.92 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of ¥10.68. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SAIC Motor Corp Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, 600104 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥10.68, fair value ¥20.92, a gap of about +96% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 600104?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥10.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥20.92). For SAIC Motor Corp Ltd the two are ¥10.24 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SAIC Motor Corp Ltd worth?
The market values SAIC Motor Corp Ltd at about 123B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is ¥10.68; our models calculate a fair value of ¥20.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 600104?
Our models span a range for SAIC Motor Corp Ltd: cautious scenario ¥17.30, base ¥20.92, optimistic ¥27.20 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price ¥10.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 600104?
SAIC Motor Corp Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.2 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥20.92 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 16.4 (reported for FY2025: 12.1). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 10.9. Other multiples: P/B 0.4, P/S 0.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of SAIC Motor Corp Ltd (600104)?
Balance-sheet figures for SAIC Motor Corp Ltd (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 4.8%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 600104 from its 52-week high?
SAIC Motor Corp Ltd trades at ¥10.68, about 34% below its 52-week high of ¥16.08 and 10% above the low of ¥9.73 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥20.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SAIC Motor Corp Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Ferrari N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SAIC Motor Corp Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price ¥10.68, calculated fair value ¥20.92 (+96%), Quality Score 53/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 600104 calculated?
We run SAIC Motor Corp Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥20.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. SAIC Motor Corp Ltd currently trades 49% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SAIC Motor Corp Ltd (600104)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ¥10.68. Our model-based fair value is ¥20.92, about +96% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SAIC Motor Corp Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥17.30). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (53/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of SAIC Motor Corp Ltd (600104) come from?
Earnings per share at SAIC Motor Corp Ltd grew −10.4 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.0 %, EBIT margin −8.7 %, tax rate −2.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of SAIC Motor Corp Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of SAIC Motor Corp Ltd (600104)?
The market capitalisation of SAIC Motor Corp Ltd is 123B CNY (≈ $18.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SAIC Motor Corp Ltd (600104)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SAIC Motor Corp Ltd is 0.19 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SAIC Motor Corp Ltd (600104)?
Earnings per share at SAIC Motor Corp Ltd are ¥0.8100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SAIC Motor Corp Ltd (600104)?
The dividend yield of SAIC Motor Corp Ltd is 2.5% (payout 44.7%, on adjusted earnings, reported 32.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SAIC Motor Corp Ltd (600104)?
The net margin of SAIC Motor Corp Ltd is 1.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SAIC Motor Corp Ltd (600104)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SAIC Motor Corp Ltd is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SAIC Motor Corp Ltd (600104)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SAIC Motor Corp Ltd is 2.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SAIC Motor Corp Ltd (600104)?
The operating margin of SAIC Motor Corp Ltd is 1.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SAIC Motor Corp Ltd (600104)?
Revenue at SAIC Motor Corp Ltd is growing −0.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SAIC Motor Corp Ltd (600104)?
Earnings per share at SAIC Motor Corp Ltd are growing −28.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does SAIC Motor Corp Ltd (600104) hold?
SAIC Motor Corp Ltd holds more cash than debt, 65.6B CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 3, 2026