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SAIC Motor Corporation (600104) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · CN · Market cap 119B CNY

SM SAIC Motor Corporation 600104 · SHG
Price¥10.77
Fair Value¥19.64
Upside+82.4%
Quality46/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 1.5% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.65% dividend yield
Ranks above peers (9/13)
Narrow moat 30/100
Evidence: Medium Range ¥14.65 – ¥24.18 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Share price +6.3% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 82% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥14.65). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (46/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

¥21.58 ¥9.73 Fair Value ¥19.64 Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ¥9.73 – ¥21.58 · fair‑value band ¥14.65 – ¥24.18 · the ¥10.77 price screens below the ¥19.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.

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Analysis

SAIC Motor Corporation (600104) currently trades at ¥10.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥19.64, implying the stock looks roughly 82.4% undervalued today. We read business quality at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, SAIC Motor Corporation generated revenue of 656B CNY at a net margin of 1.5%. Revenue declined 0.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 65.6B CNY. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026

Our scenario range runs from ¥14.65 (bear case) to ¥24.18 (bull case); at ¥10.77, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at 82%, 600104 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF ¥26.45 ¥41.65 ¥65.47 80
Residual Income ¥19.07 ¥18.70 ¥16.25 76
Rev-Margin DCF ¥23.16 ¥32.44 ¥45.31 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF ¥26.84 ¥40.29 ¥72.29 38
Owner Earnings ¥22.70 ¥34.15 ¥55.93 31
5Y Revenue Exit ¥23.16 ¥32.76 ¥46.27 39
5Y EBITDA Exit ¥34.86 ¥58.55 ¥90.13 41
5Y P/E Exit ¥24.82 ¥36.44 ¥50.41 38
10Y Revenue Exit ¥23.86 ¥33.74 ¥50.00 36
10Y EBITDA Exit ¥32.21 ¥53.38 ¥89.21 37
10Y P/E Exit ¥25.37 ¥36.54 ¥53.70 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd ¥5.98 ¥34.28 ¥47.67 54
Lynch FV ¥9.66 ¥13.79 ¥17.93 50
PEG = 1.0 ¥9.66 ¥13.79 ¥17.93 46
EPV ¥17.99 ¥19.08 ¥20.04 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM ¥3.23 ¥6.71 ¥10.64 70
DDM Multi-Stage ¥3.23 ¥5.66 ¥7.04 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple ¥13.19 ¥17.58 ¥21.98 63
P/S Multiple ¥11.21 ¥14.95 ¥18.68 58
P/B Multiple ¥11.21 ¥14.95 ¥18.68 55
EV/EBIT ¥26.22 ¥31.14 ¥36.07 53
EV/EBITDA ¥39.79 ¥49.23 ¥58.68 54
EV/Revenue ¥21.40 ¥25.67 ¥29.94 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) ¥13.00 ¥17.42 ¥25.99 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF ¥26.45 ¥41.65 ¥65.47 80
Rev-Margin DCF ¥23.16 ¥32.44 ¥45.31 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income ¥19.07 ¥18.70 ¥16.25 76
ROIC Compounder ¥17.99 ¥19.08 ¥20.04 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E ¥14.00 ¥20.00 ¥26.00 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (¥36.44) versus Dividend Discount (¥5.66). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 656B CNY
Revenue growth (YoY) -0.3%
Net margin 1.5%
Return on equity 5.0%
Free cash flow 12.5B CNY FY2025
P/E ratio 13.2
More key figures
Operating margin 4.0%
EPS (TTM) ¥0.8900
Dividend yield 2.3%
EPS growth (YoY) +0.4%
Net cash 65.6B CNY FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 32

Profitability 25
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 39
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 41
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 89
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 8
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 78
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

SAIC Motor Corporation Limited engages in the research and development, production, and sale of vehicles and their parts in the China and internationally. The company operates through Vehicles & Components and Financial Services segments. Its Vehicles & Components segment produces and sells complete vehicles and components.

Full company description

SAIC Motor Corporation Limited engages in the research and development, production, and sale of vehicles and their parts in the China and internationally. The company operates through Vehicles & Components and Financial Services segments. Its Vehicles & Components segment produces and sells complete vehicles and components. The Financial Services segment engages in financial services. SAIC Motor Corporation Limited was founded in 1997 and is based in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China. SAIC Motor Corporation Limited is a subsidiary of Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (Group) Corp.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

SAIC Motor Corporation reported revenue of ¥656B in FY2025 versus ¥780B in FY2021, a compound −4.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥10.1B in FY2025, compounding −19.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
656B CNY
Latest YoY
+4.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−4.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
−2.4%
Avg. growth/yr (31Y)
+23.9%
Revenue −4.2%/yr
FY21 ¥780B
FY22 ¥744B
FY23 ¥745B
FY24 ¥628B
FY25 ¥656B
Net income −19.9%/yr
FY21 ¥24.5B
FY22 ¥16.1B
FY23 ¥14.1B
FY24 ¥1.7B
FY25 ¥10.1B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SAIC Motor Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/600104

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Auto Manufacturers · 119 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 46 · Above median
Fair Value upside +82% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 5% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Revenue growth -0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.7% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.07× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 11.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.40× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.18× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.4× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 26
FUTURE 0 · sector 32
PAST 20 · sector 17
HEALTH 97 · sector 94
DIVIDEND 53 · sector 46

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Toyota Motor Corporation TM $179.76 $224.63 +25%
BYD Company 81211 HK$80.55 HK$50.85 -37%
Hyundai Motor Company 005380 425,000 KRW 616,918 KRW +45%
General Motors Company GM $77.72 $56.93 -27%
Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft BMWM5N 1,909 MXN 2,944 MXN +54%
Ferrari N.V RACE $376.64 $228.05 -39%
Ford Motor Company F C$11.86 C$4.00 -66%
Mercedes-Benz Group BENZ C$20.44 C$35.15 +72%
Volkswagen AG VOW 2,149 CZK 7,191 CZK +235%
Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI ₹13,803 ₹8,236 -40%

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Frequently asked questions

Is SAIC Motor Corporation (600104) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 16, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥19.64 versus a price of ¥10.77, about +82% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 600104?
Our model-based fair value for SAIC Motor Corporation is ¥19.64 (as of Jul 16, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is ¥10.77.
What is the quality score of 600104?
SAIC Motor Corporation has a Quality Score of 46/100. It combines two groups: business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength) and market factors (price momentum, distance to the 52-week high, volatility). Both subtotals are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of SAIC Motor Corporation (600104)?
SAIC Motor Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 656B CNY (latest available figure, as of Jul 16, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 600104?
The net profit margin of SAIC Motor Corporation is about 1.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does SAIC Motor Corporation pay a dividend?
SAIC Motor Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.25% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 16, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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