Great Wall Motor Co Ltd (601633) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Great Wall Motor Co Ltd stock ¥24.79, price ¥14.31, upside +73.2%, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥13.41 – ¥67.08 · fair‑value band ¥17.35 – ¥32.23 · the ¥14.31 price screens below the ¥24.79 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Great Wall Motor Company Limited engages in the manufacture and sale of automobiles, and automotive parts and components in the People's Republic of China, Europe, ASEAN countries, Latin America, the Middle East, Australia, South Africa, and internationally.
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The company offers SUVs, sedans, pick-up trucks, multi-purpose vehicles (MPVs), motorcycles, heavy-duty trucks, and energy vehicles primarily under the Haval, TANK, WEY, ORA, GWM Pick-up, GWM SOUO, and GWM brand names.
It also provides investment and financing, logistics and goods transportation, buildings rental, after-sales, customer sales, technical development and consulting, technical, and finance leasing services; consulting services on automotive research and development; and operates investment platform.
In addition, the company repairs automobiles; transports general goods; researches, develops, and manufactures auto moulds; researches and manufactures motorcycles and related parts; offers technology services, as well as automotive technology research and development, and technical consultancy services; and processes, recycles, and sells waste and used materials.
Further, it engages in the wholesale and retail of car accessories; research and test development of engineering technology; trading and brokerage activities; scrap car recycling and dismantling activities; provision of insurance brokerage, technical, and computer system services; and development of network and information security software.
The company was formerly known as Baoding Great Wall Motor Company Limited and changed its name to Great Wall Motor Company Limited in May 2003. The company was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Baoding, China.
Great Wall Motor Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of Baoding Innovation Great Wall Asset Management Company Limited.
Stock analysis
Great Wall Motor Co Ltd (601633) currently trades at ¥14.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥24.79, implying the stock looks roughly 42% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of ¥53.08 per share, and 22 of the 26 models we run sit above the ¥14.31 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ¥4.88, and 4 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: ¥17.35 (bear) to ¥32.23 (bull), the price of ¥14.31 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Great Wall Motor Co Ltd reported revenue of 223B CNY in FY2025 versus 136B CNY in FY2021, a compound +13.0%/yr. Reported net income was 9.9B CNY in FY2025, compounding +10.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 122B CNY (≈ $18.3B) Large · P/E ratio 20.2 · P/S ratio 0.53 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.7100 · Dividend yield 2.4% · Net margin 2.2% · Return on equity 5.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 73%, 601633 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥17.35Fair Value ¥24.79Bull¥32.23
Price ¥14.31 · Upside +73.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.3058 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income¥9.31¥10.82¥14.7975
FCF DCF¥54.16¥96.15¥205.2774
5Y EBITDA Exit¥31.64¥52.74¥79.9773
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF¥54.16¥96.15¥205.2774
Owner Earnings¥29.72¥59.35¥117.8471
5Y Revenue Exit¥26.80¥41.82¥61.9771
5Y EBITDA Exit¥31.64¥52.74¥79.9773
5Y P/E Exit¥30.92¥51.11¥75.1769
10Y Revenue Exit¥34.55¥53.08¥80.6365
10Y EBITDA Exit¥38.37¥61.54¥98.5966
10Y P/E Exit¥37.87¥60.28¥94.1862
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥7.92¥48.51¥67.6861
Lynch FV¥13.90¥19.86¥25.8158
PEG = 1.0¥13.90¥19.86¥25.8155
EPV¥13.73¥15.56¥17.1672
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥4.18¥8.73¥13.9464
DDM Multi-Stage¥4.18¥7.34¥9.1664
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥19.22¥25.62¥32.0361
P/S Multiple¥14.85¥19.80¥24.7556
P/B Multiple¥19.30¥25.73¥32.1653
EV/EBIT¥15.62¥21.68¥27.7464
EV/EBITDA¥17.73¥24.49¥31.2566
EV/Revenue¥9.70¥14.95¥20.2052
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥3.64¥4.88¥7.2852
Growth DCF
Growth DCF¥52.55¥106.38¥193.6873
Rev-Margin DCF¥26.80¥41.75¥62.8871
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥9.31¥10.82¥14.7975
ROIC Compounder¥15.80¥21.89¥28.4471
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥20.46¥29.23¥38.0066
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical peak year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.3% a year
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+17.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.0% vs 2.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 5%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−22.8%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −24.1% a year for the price and +9.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Overseas deliveries now exceeding half of total volumes form the main strength, while low gross margins and sharp domestic weakness remain the central limitation in a competitive sector.
Main risk: Rivals such as BYD and Geely that have shifted faster to new-energy vehicles could continue to capture domestic share and intensify price pressure on Great Wall Motor’s traditional models.
Great Wall Motor faces a clear split in its markets. Domestic volumes dropped sharply in September while overseas deliveries now make up over half the total and keep climbing. Our models see the shares as undervalued. Will the global push deliver stable profits or will the domestic weakness continue to weigh on results?
Compare Great Wall Motor Co Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Manufacturers · 109 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+73.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.8% · Below median
Return on assets4.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)2.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)4.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−5.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.4% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Great Wall Motor Co Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/601633
Frequently asked questions
Is Great Wall Motor Co Ltd (601633) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥24.79 versus a price of ¥14.31, about +73% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 601633?
Our model-based fair value for Great Wall Motor Co Ltd is ¥24.79 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥14.31.
What is the quality score of 601633?
Great Wall Motor Co Ltd has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Great Wall Motor Co Ltd (601633)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥24.79 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥17.35, optimistic scenario ¥32.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Great Wall Motor Co Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥24.79, about +73% upside versus a price of ¥14.31 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ¥17.35, optimistic scenario ¥32.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Great Wall Motor Co Ltd (601633)?
Great Wall Motor Co Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 229B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
Does Great Wall Motor Co Ltd pay a dividend?
Great Wall Motor Co Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.45% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Great Wall Motor Co Ltd (601633)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Great Wall Motor Co Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -22.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.6 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 601633 use?
Our models discount Great Wall Motor Co Ltd at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.61, country premium for China. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Great Wall Motor Co Ltd that is -22.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Great Wall Motor Co Ltd (601633) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Great Wall Motor Co Ltd grew +16.6 % a year. The price currently implies -22.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Great Wall Motor Co Ltd (601633) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Great Wall Motor Co Ltd (-22.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Great Wall Motor Co Ltd (601633)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.88 %: that much free cash flow Great Wall Motor Co Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Great Wall Motor Co Ltd (601633)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Great Wall Motor Co Ltd it is ¥24.79 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of ¥14.31. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Great Wall Motor Co Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, 601633 trades below its calculated fair value: price ¥14.31, fair value ¥24.79, a gap of about +73% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 601633?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥14.31); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥24.79). For Great Wall Motor Co Ltd the two are ¥10.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Great Wall Motor Co Ltd worth?
The market values Great Wall Motor Co Ltd at about 122B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is ¥14.31; our models calculate a fair value of ¥24.79 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 601633?
Our models span a range for Great Wall Motor Co Ltd: cautious scenario ¥17.35, base ¥24.79, optimistic ¥32.23 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price ¥14.31). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 601633?
Great Wall Motor Co Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.2 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥24.79 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 20.2. Other multiples: PEG 3.0, P/B 1.4, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 8.7.
What is the PEG ratio of 601633?
The PEG ratio of Great Wall Motor Co Ltd is 2.98 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Great Wall Motor Co Ltd (601633)?
Balance-sheet figures for Great Wall Motor Co Ltd (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 5.8%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 601633 from its 52-week high?
Great Wall Motor Co Ltd trades at ¥14.31, about 40% below its 52-week high of ¥23.73 and 7% above the low of ¥13.41 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥24.79 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Great Wall Motor Co Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Tesla, Inc, Toyota Motor Corporation, BYD Company, Ferrari N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Great Wall Motor Co Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price ¥14.31, calculated fair value ¥24.79 (+73%), Quality Score 60/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 601633 calculated?
We run Great Wall Motor Co Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥24.79, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Great Wall Motor Co Ltd currently trades 42% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Great Wall Motor Co Ltd (601633)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was ¥14.31. Our model-based fair value is ¥24.79, about +73% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Great Wall Motor Co Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (¥17.35). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (60/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (¥17.35 to ¥32.23) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Great Wall Motor Co Ltd (601633) come from?
Earnings per share at Great Wall Motor Co Ltd grew +1.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.7 %, EBIT margin −9.2 %, tax rate +0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Great Wall Motor Co Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Great Wall Motor Co Ltd (601633)?
The market capitalisation of Great Wall Motor Co Ltd is 122B CNY (≈ $18.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Great Wall Motor Co Ltd (601633)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Great Wall Motor Co Ltd is 0.53 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Great Wall Motor Co Ltd (601633)?
Earnings per share at Great Wall Motor Co Ltd are ¥0.7100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Great Wall Motor Co Ltd (601633)?
The dividend yield of Great Wall Motor Co Ltd is 2.4% (payout 49.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Great Wall Motor Co Ltd (601633)?
The net margin of Great Wall Motor Co Ltd is 2.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Great Wall Motor Co Ltd (601633)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Great Wall Motor Co Ltd is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Great Wall Motor Co Ltd (601633)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Great Wall Motor Co Ltd is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Great Wall Motor Co Ltd (601633)?
The operating margin of Great Wall Motor Co Ltd is 4.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Great Wall Motor Co Ltd (601633)?
Revenue at Great Wall Motor Co Ltd is growing −5.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Great Wall Motor Co Ltd (601633)?
Earnings per share at Great Wall Motor Co Ltd are growing −40.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Great Wall Motor Co Ltd (601633) carry?
The net debt of Great Wall Motor Co Ltd is 21.7B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 3, 2026