Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp stock ¥3.99, price ¥10.11, that is 60.6% below the price, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.82 – ¥23.26 · fair‑value band ¥2.79 – ¥5.18 · the ¥10.11 price screens above the ¥3.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Apple Flavor & Fragrance Group Co.,Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of flavors, fragrances, and food ingredients in China.
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It offers food flavors, including dairy, ice cream, beverage, confectionery, savory, bakery, and snack related flavors, as well as fragrances for perfumes, personal care, oral care, home care, and candle and air care products.
The company also manufactures aroma ingredients, such as synthetic aroma chemicals, natural extracts, and fermentation natural chemicals.
In addition, it offers food ingredients, such as dairy products, chocolate and cocoa products, fruit products, flavors and fragrances, breads, desserts, and other products. Apple Flavor & Fragrance Group Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020) currently trades at ¥10.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.99, 61% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥6.69 per share, and 1 of the 15 models we run sit above the ¥10.11 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥1.30, and 14 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥2.79 (bear) to ¥5.18 (bull), the price of ¥10.11 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp reported revenue of 2.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound −7.3%/yr. Reported net income was 86.7M CNY in FY2025, compounding −19.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.9B CNY (≈ $581M) Small · P/E ratio 59.5 · P/S ratio 2.06 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.1700 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 2.5% · Return on equity 2.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −61%, 603020 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear¥2.79Fair Value ¥3.99Bull¥5.18
Price ¥10.11 · Downside -60.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0598 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Owner Earnings¥1.37¥1.67¥2.2177
Residual Income¥5.79¥5.84¥6.0676
EPV¥1.50¥1.66¥1.8073
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings¥1.37¥1.67¥2.2177
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd¥1.57¥2.38¥2.8467
EPV¥1.50¥1.66¥1.8073
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM¥1.08¥1.24¥1.4169
DDM Multi-Stage¥1.08¥1.36¥1.7067
Multiples
P/E Multiple¥2.94¥3.93¥4.9163
P/S Multiple¥2.94¥3.93¥4.9157
P/B Multiple¥8.11¥10.81¥13.5255
EV/EBIT¥2.96¥3.81¥4.6665
EV/EBITDA¥3.30¥4.26¥5.2367
EV/Revenue¥2.62¥3.57¥4.5253
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)¥4.41¥6.69¥8.3654
Economic Profit
Residual Income¥5.79¥5.84¥6.0676
ROIC Compounder¥1.50¥1.66¥1.8071
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E¥2.10¥3.00¥3.9067
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.15/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.0% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−14.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−15.7% vs −9.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 5%
Compare Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 727 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside−60.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)2.8% · Below median
Return on assets3.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)3.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)7.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.8% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.0% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)59.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.18× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)2.06× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA30.0× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)39· sector 67
PAST (return on equity)11· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)20· sector 30
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.99 versus a price of ¥10.11, about 61% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603020?
Our model-based fair value for Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp is ¥3.99 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥10.11.
What is the quality score of 603020?
Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥3.99 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥2.79, optimistic scenario ¥5.18. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥3.99, about 61% lower versus a price of ¥10.11 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.79, optimistic scenario ¥5.18. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp pay a dividend?
Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp currently shows a dividend yield of 0.99% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp pays a dividend of ¥0.1 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 1, 2026. The payout ratio is 58.8% of earnings. Our assessment: Token dividend. At a yield of 1.0% the dividend is symbolic. On paper it is not fully covered by earnings or free cash flow, but at this size that hardly matters: even scrapping it entirely would cost less than 1.0% a year, and coverage ratios on amounts this small swing with ordinary working-capital movements. Judge this company on its business, not on its dividend.
What is the intrinsic value of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp it is ¥3.99 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of ¥10.11. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 603020 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥10.11, fair value ¥3.99, a gap of about −61% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603020?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥10.11); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥3.99). For Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp the two are ¥6.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp worth?
The market values Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp at about 3.9B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is ¥10.11; our models calculate a fair value of ¥3.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603020?
Our models span a range for Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp: cautious scenario ¥2.79, base ¥3.99, optimistic ¥5.18 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price ¥10.11). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 603020?
Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 59.5 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥3.99 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 25.3. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 2.1, EV/EBITDA 30.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
Balance-sheet figures for Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 2.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603020 from its 52-week high?
Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp trades at ¥10.11, about 32% below its 52-week high of ¥14.90 and 12% above the low of ¥9.05 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥3.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, Ecolab Inc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Nan Ya Plastics Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price ¥10.11, calculated fair value ¥3.99 (−61%), Quality Score 49/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603020 calculated?
We run Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp through 15 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of ¥3.99 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was ¥10.11. Our model-based fair value is ¥3.99, about 61% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥5.18). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (49/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (¥2.79 to ¥5.18) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020) come from?
Earnings per share at Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp grew −7.1 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.1 %, EBIT margin −6.0 %, tax rate −0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp
How large is the market capitalisation of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
The market capitalisation of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp is 3.9B CNY (≈ $581M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp is 2.06 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
Earnings per share at Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp are ¥0.1700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 59.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
The dividend yield of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp is 1.0% (payout 58.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
The net margin of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp is 2.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
The operating margin of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp is 7.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
Revenue at Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp is growing +7.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
Earnings per share at Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp are growing −48.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020) generate?
The free cash flow of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp is −3.4M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020) hold?
Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp holds more cash than debt, 203M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 5, 2026