Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp ¥3.99, price ¥13.34, upside -70.1%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ¥5.82 – ¥23.26 · fair‑value band ¥2.94 – ¥5.18 · the ¥13.34 price screens above the ¥3.99 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Apple Flavor & Fragrance Group Co.,Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of flavors, fragrances, and food ingredients in China.
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Apple Flavor & Fragrance Group Co.,Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture and sale of flavors, fragrances, and food ingredients in China. It offers food flavors, including dairy, ice cream, beverage, confectionery, savory, bakery, and snack related flavors, as well as fragrances for perfumes, personal care, oral care, home care, and candle and air care products. The company also manufactures aroma ingredients, such as synthetic aroma chemicals, natural extracts, and fermentation natural chemicals. In addition, it offers food ingredients, such as dairy products, chocolate and cocoa products, fruit products, flavors and fragrances, breads, desserts, and other products. Apple Flavor & Fragrance Group Co.,Ltd. was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Shanghai, China.
Stock analysis
Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020) currently trades at ¥13.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ¥3.99, implying the stock looks roughly 234.6% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of ¥5.85 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the ¥13.34 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ¥1.59, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ¥2.94 (bear) to ¥5.18 (bull), the price of ¥13.34 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp reported revenue of 2.5B CNY in FY2025 versus 3.3B CNY in FY2021, a compound −7.3%/yr. Reported net income was 86.7M CNY in FY2025, compounding −19.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 5.1B CNY (≈ $763M) · P/E ratio 58.0 · P/S ratio 2.04 · EPS (TTM) ¥0.2300 · Dividend yield 0.7% · Net margin 3.5% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 47% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −70%, 603020 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ¥2.94Fair Value ¥3.99Bull ¥5.18
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (¥0.0951 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.15/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.0% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−15.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−16% vs −9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 5%
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Chemicals · 719 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score51 · Below median
Fair Value upside−70% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.7% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)58.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B0.23× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.31× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA3.9× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 1
FUTURE (revenue growth)16· sector 21
PAST (return on equity)13· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)15· sector 29
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ¥3.99 versus a price of ¥13.34, about −70% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 603020?
Our model-based fair value for Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp is ¥3.99 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ¥13.34.
What is the quality score of 603020?
Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ¥3.99 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario ¥2.94, optimistic scenario ¥5.18. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ¥3.99, about −70% upside versus a price of ¥13.34 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ¥2.94, optimistic scenario ¥5.18. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.5B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp pay a dividend?
Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.75% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp it is ¥3.99 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of ¥13.34. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, 603020 trades above its calculated fair value: price ¥13.34, fair value ¥3.99, a gap of about −70% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 603020?
No. The price is what the market pays today (¥13.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (¥3.99). For Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp the two are ¥9.35 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp worth?
The market values Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp at about 5.1B CNY (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is ¥13.34; our models calculate a fair value of ¥3.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 603020?
Our models span a range for Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp: cautious scenario ¥2.94, base ¥3.99, optimistic ¥5.18 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price ¥13.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 603020?
Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 58.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ¥3.99 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.2, P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 3.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
Balance-sheet figures for Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 3.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 603020 from its 52-week high?
Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp trades at ¥13.34, about 10% below its 52-week high of ¥14.90 and 47% above the low of ¥9.05 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ¥3.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Linde plc, The Sherwin-Williams Company, Ecolab Inc, Air Products and Chemicals, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price ¥13.34, calculated fair value ¥3.99 (−70%), Quality Score 51/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 603020 calculated?
We run Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ¥3.99, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was ¥13.34. Our model-based fair value is ¥3.99, about −70% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (¥5.18). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020) come from?
Earnings per share at Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp grew −7.1 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.1 %, EBIT margin −6.0 %, tax rate −0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp
How large is the market capitalisation of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
The market capitalisation of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp is 5.1B CNY (≈ $763M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp is 2.04 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
Earnings per share at Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp are ¥0.2300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 58.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
The dividend yield of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp is 0.7% (payout 43.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
The net margin of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp is 3.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp is 5.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
The operating margin of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
Revenue at Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp is growing +3.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020)?
Earnings per share at Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp are growing +2.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020) generate?
The free cash flow of Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp is −3.4M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp (603020) hold?
Apple Flavor&Fragrance Grp holds more cash than debt, 203M CNY net (fiscal year 2024). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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