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AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of AGTech Holdings Ltd stock HK$3.16, price HK$1.23, upside +156.9%, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Consumer Cyclical HK · ISIN BMG0135Z1032

AH AGTech Holdings Ltd logo Thin data Nov 7, 2026

AGTech Holdings Ltd

8279 · HK
Meets all rules

The stock costs 61% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value HK$3.16 · Strongly undervalued
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 118% above the price (HK$2.68).
Quality 55/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +36.3 %/yr in HKD)
Loss-making · -5.2% net margin (TTM)
Trails peers (4/11)
Narrow moat 24/100 · thin data
Thin data
⚠ Small free float
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$1.61 HK$0.1450 Fair Value HK$3.16 Jun 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$0.1450 – HK$1.61 · fair‑value band HK$2.68 – HK$4.00 · the HK$1.23 price screens below the HK$3.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 5 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

AGTech Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, provides digital banking and payment, and other related services in the Mainland of China, Macau, and internationally. It operates through Digital Payment and Related Businesses, Full-scale Banking Business, and Lottery Business segments.

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The Digital Payment and Related Businesses segment offers payment card and ancillary services, as well as e-wallet services; acquiring services for other payment service providers and merchants; engages in the sale and leasing of payment terminals and equipment; and other related services.

The Full-scale Banking Business segment provides digital banking services for individuals and SMEs, wealth management, and other related services.

The Lottery Operation segment engages in the sale and leasing of lottery hardware, including the provision of related after-sale services; offline lottery distribution and ancillary activities; and other integrated business.

It offers local consumer services, such as lifestyle, culture and entertainment, marketing technical, and e-commerce services; and engages in travel agency and related businesses, as well as research, development, and sale of sports lottery terminals and systems.

The company was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Causeway Bay, Hong Kong. AGTech Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Ali Fortune Investment Holding Limited.

Stock analysis

AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279) currently trades at HK$1.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.16, implying the stock looks roughly 61% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$13.77 per share, and 6 of the 13 models we run sit above the HK$1.23 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$0.4800, and 7 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: HK$2.68 (bear) to HK$4.00 (bull), the price of HK$1.23 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

AGTech Holdings Ltd reported revenue of HK$761M in FY2025 versus HK$253M in FY2021, a compound +31.6%/yr. Reported net income was −HK$39.7M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap HK$15.7B (≈ $2.0B) Mid · P/S ratio 20.7 · Net margin −5.2% · Return on equity −2.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.2% (5-year average) · Operating margin 10.0% · Revenue (TTM) HK$761M · Revenue growth (YoY) +13.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 24 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 544% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at 157%, 8279 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$2.68 Fair Value HK$3.16 Bull HK$4.00
Price HK$1.23 · Upside +156.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.68 HK$3.16 HK$4.00 77
FCF DCF HK$8.25 HK$12.55 HK$26.02 76
Owner Earnings HK$0.6200 HK$0.8400 HK$1.29 76
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$8.25 HK$12.55 HK$26.02 76
Owner Earnings HK$0.6200 HK$0.8400 HK$1.29 76
5Y Revenue Exit HK$2.65 HK$3.09 HK$3.87 74
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$2.68 HK$3.16 HK$4.00 77
10Y Revenue Exit HK$4.31 HK$6.09 HK$6.60 68
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$4.34 HK$6.16 HK$8.64 69
Earnings-Based
EPV HK$0.4700 HK$0.4800 HK$0.4800 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT HK$0.4900 HK$0.5000 HK$0.5200 66
EV/EBITDA HK$0.5200 HK$0.5500 HK$0.5700 67
EV/Revenue HK$0.4700 HK$0.4800 HK$0.5000 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$0.0100 HK$0.0200 HK$0.0300 52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$7.78 HK$13.77 HK$25.61 75
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder HK$0.4700 HK$0.4800 HK$0.4800 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 7
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 100
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 46
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 64
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 45
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 96
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 87
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 74
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 67/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+23.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−81.1% (2020) → 5.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.

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Compare AGTech Holdings Ltd with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gambling · 45 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 55 · Below median
Fair Value upside +156.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −0.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −5.2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 10.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 13.8% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Gambling median · lower = cheaper

P/B 6.11× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 20.66× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 2.9× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 54
FUTURE (revenue growth)69 · sector 37
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 88
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 85

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Gambling

Similar stocks

10 more Gambling stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Evolution AB EVO kr 847.60 kr 2,228 +163% vs 8279
Flutter Entertainment plc FLUT $81.70 $194.39 +138% vs 8279
Brightstar Lottery PLC BRSL $9.90 $13.37 +35% vs 8279
Light & Wonder, Inc LNWO $80.88 $101.80 +26% vs 8279
Super Group SGHC $11.36 $12.71 +12% vs 8279
Churchill Downs Incorporated CHDN $97.94 $107.73 +10% vs 8279
Rush Street Interactive, Inc RSI $12.28 $13.51 +10% vs 8279
FDJ United FDJU €21.72 €23.85 +10% vs 8279
Lottomatica Group LTMC €27.57 €30.24 +10% vs 8279
The Lottery Corporation TLC A$5.47 A$2.08 −62% vs 8279

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AGTech Holdings Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AGTech Holdings Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/8279

Frequently asked questions

Is AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.16 versus a price of HK$1.23, about +157% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 8279?
Our model-based fair value for AGTech Holdings Ltd is HK$3.16 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$1.23.
What is the quality score of 8279?
AGTech Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$3.16 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$2.68, optimistic scenario HK$4.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AGTech Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$3.16, about +157% upside versus a price of HK$1.23 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$2.68, optimistic scenario HK$4.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
AGTech Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$761M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AGTech Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +36.3 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 8279 use?
Our models discount AGTech Holdings Ltd at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.64, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AGTech Holdings Ltd that is less than minus 40 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at AGTech Holdings Ltd grew +36.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of less than minus 40 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AGTech Holdings Ltd (less than minus 40 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 38.01 %: that much free cash flow AGTech Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AGTech Holdings Ltd it is HK$3.16 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of HK$1.23. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is AGTech Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, 8279 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$1.23, fair value HK$3.16, a gap of about +157% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 8279?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$1.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$3.16). For AGTech Holdings Ltd the two are HK$1.93 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AGTech Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values AGTech Holdings Ltd at about HK$15.7B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is HK$1.23; our models calculate a fair value of HK$3.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 8279?
Our models span a range for AGTech Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario HK$2.68, base HK$3.16, optimistic HK$4.00 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price HK$1.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
Balance-sheet figures for AGTech Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity −2.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 8279 from its 52-week high?
AGTech Holdings Ltd trades at HK$1.23, about 23% below its 52-week high of HK$1.61 and 544% above the low of HK$0.1910 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$3.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AGTech Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Evolution AB, Flutter Entertainment plc, The Lottery Corporation, Lottomatica Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AGTech Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price HK$1.23, calculated fair value HK$3.16 (+157%), Quality Score 55/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 8279 calculated?
We run AGTech Holdings Ltd through 13 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$3.16 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. AGTech Holdings Ltd currently trades 61% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was HK$1.23. Our model-based fair value is HK$3.16, about +157% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AGTech Holdings Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$2.68). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Key figures of AGTech Holdings Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
The market capitalisation of AGTech Holdings Ltd is HK$15.7B (≈ $2.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AGTech Holdings Ltd is 20.7 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
The net margin of AGTech Holdings Ltd is −5.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AGTech Holdings Ltd is −2.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AGTech Holdings Ltd is −1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
The operating margin of AGTech Holdings Ltd is 10.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279)?
Revenue at AGTech Holdings Ltd is growing +13.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +29.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does AGTech Holdings Ltd (8279) hold?
AGTech Holdings Ltd holds more cash than debt, HK$5.0B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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