Newborn Town Inc (9911) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Newborn Town Inc stock HK$27.45, price HK$9.15, upside +200.0%, quality 78 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$1.07 – HK$13.88 · fair‑value band HK$16.58 – HK$50.64 · the HK$9.15 price screens below the HK$27.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Newborn Town Inc. operates as a social networking entertainment company worldwide.
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The company engages in the operation of MICO, a live streaming social networking platform; YoHo, an audio social networking platform; SUGO, a companion-based social networking platform; TopTop, a game-oriented social networking platform; LGBTQ+ platforms, including Blued and Heesay; and Finka, a social networking business.
It also offers Alice's Dream, a game product; Heer Health for HIV prevention and treatment, and sexual health services; Aippy, a consumer-grade AI application; and advertising spaces to agencies of advertisers. The company was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Sha Tin, Hong Kong.
Stock analysis
Newborn Town Inc (9911) currently trades at HK$9.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$27.45, implying the stock looks roughly 67% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$39.76 per share, and 19 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$9.15 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at HK$8.00, and 5 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: HK$16.58 (bear) to HK$50.64 (bull), the price of HK$9.15 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Newborn Town Inc reported revenue of 6.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 2.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound +30.7%/yr. Reported net income was 935M CNY in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap HK$12.4B (≈ $1.6B) Small · P/E ratio 9.7 · P/S ratio 1.31 · Net margin 13.6% · Return on equity 44.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.4% (5-year average) · Operating margin 11.5% · Revenue growth (YoY) +37.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 75 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 200%, 9911 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearHK$16.58Fair Value HK$27.45BullHK$50.64
Price HK$9.15 · Upside +200.0%
Capped: our models arrive at a very high value here. We deliberately show a more cautious Fair Value.
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+35.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+42.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+54.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+46.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+46.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.46.1% vs 24.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 13%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−12.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+16.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −14.0% a year for the price and +14.5% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 630 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score78 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)44.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets21.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)14.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)11.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)37.0% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Newborn Town Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/9911
Frequently asked questions
Is Newborn Town Inc (9911) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$27.45 versus a price of HK$9.15, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 9911?
Our model-based fair value for Newborn Town Inc is HK$27.45 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$9.15.
What is the quality score of 9911?
Newborn Town Inc has a Quality Score of 78/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Newborn Town Inc (9911)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$27.45 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$16.58, optimistic scenario HK$50.64. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Newborn Town Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$27.45, about +200% upside versus a price of HK$9.15 (undervalued). Cautious scenario HK$16.58, optimistic scenario HK$50.64. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Newborn Town Inc (9911)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Newborn Town Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -12.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +42.3 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 9911 use?
Our models discount Newborn Town Inc at 10.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.52, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Newborn Town Inc that is -12.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Newborn Town Inc (9911) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Newborn Town Inc grew +42.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -12.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Newborn Town Inc (9911) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Newborn Town Inc (-12.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Newborn Town Inc (9911)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.30 %: that much free cash flow Newborn Town Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Newborn Town Inc (9911)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Newborn Town Inc it is HK$27.45 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of HK$9.15. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Newborn Town Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, 9911 trades below its calculated fair value: price HK$9.15, fair value HK$27.45, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 9911?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$9.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$27.45). For Newborn Town Inc the two are HK$18.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Newborn Town Inc worth?
The market values Newborn Town Inc at about HK$12.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is HK$9.15; our models calculate a fair value of HK$27.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 9911?
Our models span a range for Newborn Town Inc: cautious scenario HK$16.58, base HK$27.45, optimistic HK$50.64 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price HK$9.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 9911?
Newborn Town Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.7 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of HK$27.45 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.7, P/S 1.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Newborn Town Inc (9911)?
Balance-sheet figures for Newborn Town Inc (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 44.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 78/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 9911 from its 52-week high?
Newborn Town Inc trades at HK$9.15, about 34% below its 52-week high of HK$13.88 and 29% above the low of HK$7.10 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$27.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Newborn Town Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Newborn Town Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price HK$9.15, calculated fair value HK$27.45 (+200%), Quality Score 78/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 9911 calculated?
We run Newborn Town Inc through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$27.45 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Newborn Town Inc currently trades 67% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Newborn Town Inc (9911)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was HK$9.15. Our model-based fair value is HK$27.45, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Newborn Town Inc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (78/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$16.58). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide (HK$16.58 to HK$50.64). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Newborn Town Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Newborn Town Inc (9911)?
The market capitalisation of Newborn Town Inc is HK$12.4B (≈ $1.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Newborn Town Inc (9911)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Newborn Town Inc is 1.31 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Newborn Town Inc (9911)?
The net margin of Newborn Town Inc is 13.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Newborn Town Inc (9911)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Newborn Town Inc is 44.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Newborn Town Inc (9911)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Newborn Town Inc is 10.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Newborn Town Inc (9911)?
The operating margin of Newborn Town Inc is 11.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Newborn Town Inc (9911)?
Revenue at Newborn Town Inc is growing +37.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +35.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Newborn Town Inc (9911)?
Earnings per share at Newborn Town Inc are growing +40.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Newborn Town Inc (9911) hold?
Newborn Town Inc holds more cash than debt, 2.5B CNY net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 5, 2026