AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of AMS OSRAM AG stock €17.25, price €15.95, upside +8.2%, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 11 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €5.50 – €93.74 · fair‑value band €11.57 – €26.89 · the €15.95 price screens below the €17.25 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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ams-OSRAM AG engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of LED and optical sensor solutions in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United States, and the Asia/Pacific. The company operates through Opto Semiconductors (OS); CMOS Sensors & ASICs (CSA); and Lamps & Systems (L&S) segments.
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It offers white, color, UV-C, IR, and multi color LEDs, as well as LED modules and accessories; color and IR lasers; photodiodes and phototransistors; optical modules; and automotive and digital systems and lamps, as well as power management ICs, LED driver and analog frontend ICs, and sensor interfaces.
In addition, the company provides ambient light, color, and spectral and proximity sensors; direct time-of-flight sensors; position and capacitive sensors; CMOS image sensors; temperature sensors; active noise cancellation solutions; and boards, kits, and related accessories.
Its products are used in automotive and mobility, industrial, medical and health, mobile and wearables, lighting, and computing applications. The company was formerly known as ams AG and changed its name to ams-OSRAM AG in January 2022.
The company was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Premstätten, Austria.
Stock analysis
AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2) currently trades at €15.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €17.25, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.5%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €42.37 per share, and 6 of the 10 models we run sit above the €15.95 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €11.70, and 4 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €11.57 (bear) to €26.89 (bull), the price of €15.95 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
AMS OSRAM AG reported revenue of €3.3B in FY2025 versus €4.8B in FY2022, a compound −11.7%/yr. Reported net income was −€130M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €1.9B Mid · P/S ratio 0.57 · EPS (TTM) €−3.27 · Net margin −9.7% · Return on equity −37.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.0% (4-year average) · Operating margin 1.1% · Revenue (TTM) €3.3B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 16 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 112% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at 8%, AMS2 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€11.57Fair Value €17.25Bull€26.89
Price €15.95 · Upside +8.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.18/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.7%
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
0.7% (2022) → 2.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+39.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +36.4% a year for the price and −0.5% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The business quality shows strength in advancing photonics for AI data centers through VCSEL arrays but weakness in the core semiconductor operations burdened by restructuring and margin pressure.
Main risk: Restructuring and margin pressure in the core semiconductor operations threaten to constrain the scaling of photonics applications across the overall business.
ams OSRAM is pushing thin-film VCSEL arrays and multi-core fiber links for low-power optical interconnects inside AI data centers. The move builds on its photonics focus while the core semiconductor operations still contend with restructuring and margin pressure. Will the AI applications scale quickly enough to reshape the business, or will they remain a side bet alongside the established automotive LED franchise?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 370 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+8.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)−9.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)1.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.66× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
P/B2.02× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.57× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)50.2× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AMS OSRAM AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AMS2
Frequently asked questions
Is AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €17.25 versus a price of €15.95, about +8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of AMS2?
Our model-based fair value for AMS OSRAM AG is €17.25 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €15.95.
What is the quality score of AMS2?
AMS OSRAM AG has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €17.25 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario €11.57, optimistic scenario €26.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AMS OSRAM AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €17.25, about +8% upside versus a price of €15.95 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €11.57, optimistic scenario €26.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
AMS OSRAM AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AMS OSRAM AG would have to grow free cash flow by +39.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew -11.7 % per year. Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AMS2 use?
Our models discount AMS OSRAM AG at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.71, country premium for Austria. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AMS OSRAM AG that is +39.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at AMS OSRAM AG grew -11.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +39.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +15.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AMS OSRAM AG (+39.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.41 % in the last fiscal year (free cash flow was negative over the last twelve months): that much free cash flow AMS OSRAM AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AMS OSRAM AG it is €17.25 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of €15.95. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models in 3 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Growth DCF).
Is AMS OSRAM AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, AMS2 trades below its calculated fair value: price €15.95, fair value €17.25, a gap of about +8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AMS2?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€15.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€17.25). For AMS OSRAM AG the two are €1.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AMS OSRAM AG worth?
The market values AMS OSRAM AG at about €1.9B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is €15.95; our models calculate a fair value of €17.25 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AMS2?
Our models span a range for AMS OSRAM AG: cautious scenario €11.57, base €17.25, optimistic €26.89 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price €15.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of AMS2?
The PEG ratio of AMS OSRAM AG is 0.23 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
Balance-sheet figures for AMS OSRAM AG (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −37.6%, debt of 2.66 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AMS2 from its 52-week high?
AMS OSRAM AG trades at €15.95, about 41% below its 52-week high of €27.00 and 112% above the low of €7.54 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €17.25 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AMS OSRAM AG?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, Micron Technology, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AMS OSRAM AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price €15.95, calculated fair value €17.25 (+8%), Quality Score 43/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AMS2 calculated?
We run AMS OSRAM AG through 11 models from 3 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €17.25 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. AMS OSRAM AG currently trades 8% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €15.95. Our model-based fair value is €17.25, about +8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AMS OSRAM AG right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (€11.57 to €26.89) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of AMS OSRAM AG
How large is the market capitalisation of AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
The market capitalisation of AMS OSRAM AG is €1.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AMS OSRAM AG is 0.57 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
Earnings per share at AMS OSRAM AG are €−3.27. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
The net margin of AMS OSRAM AG is −9.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AMS OSRAM AG is −37.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AMS OSRAM AG is 0.0% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
The operating margin of AMS OSRAM AG is 1.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
Revenue at AMS OSRAM AG is growing +3.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2) carry?
The net debt of AMS OSRAM AG is €1.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 28.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 8, 2026