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AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of AMS OSRAM AG €12.44, price €23.50, upside -47.1%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Technology · AT

AO Some data Sep 24, 2026

AMS OSRAM AG

AMS2 · VI

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value €12.44 · Strongly overvalued (−47%)
!Quality 35/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −11.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -6.2% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (5/13)
!Narrow moat 18/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€94.00 €5.50 Fair Value €12.44 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €5.50 – €94.00 · fair‑value band €8.44 – €18.29 · the €23.50 price screens above the €12.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

ams-OSRAM AG engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of LED and optical sensor solutions in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United States, and the Asia/Pacific. The company operates through Opto Semiconductors (OS); CMOS Sensors & ASICs (CSA); and Lamps & Systems (L&S) segments.

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ams-OSRAM AG engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of LED and optical sensor solutions in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, the United States, and the Asia/Pacific. The company operates through Opto Semiconductors (OS); CMOS Sensors & ASICs (CSA); and Lamps & Systems (L&S) segments. It offers white, color, UV-C, IR, and multi color LEDs, as well as LED modules and accessories; color and IR lasers; photodiodes and phototransistors; optical modules; and automotive and digital systems and lamps, as well as power management ICs, LED driver and analog frontend ICs, and sensor interfaces. In addition, the company provides ambient light, color, and spectral and proximity sensors; direct time-of-flight sensors; position and capacitive sensors; CMOS image sensors; temperature sensors; active noise cancellation solutions; and boards, kits, and related accessories. Its products are used in automotive and mobility, industrial, medical and health, mobile and wearables, lighting, and computing applications. The company was formerly known as ams AG and changed its name to ams-OSRAM AG in January 2022. The company was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Premstätten, Austria.

Stock analysis

AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2) currently trades at €23.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €12.44, implying the stock looks roughly 88.9% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €18.74 per share, and 4 of the 11 models we run sit above the €23.50 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €6.34, and 7 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: €8.44 (bear) to €18.29 (bull), the price of €23.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

AMS OSRAM AG reported revenue of €3.3B in FY2025 versus €4.8B in FY2022, a compound −11.7%/yr. Reported net income was −€130M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap €2.3B · P/S ratio 0.60 · EPS (TTM) €−2.05 · Net margin −3.9% · Return on equity −20.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.0% · Operating margin 0.1% · Revenue (TTM) €3.3B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 212% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −47%, AMS2 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €8.44 Fair Value €12.44 Bull €18.29
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €11.99 €18.74 €30.06 76
Growth DCF €12.71 €19.11 €29.02 75
Owner Earnings €16.72 €24.90 €38.64 72
All 12 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €11.99 €18.74 €30.06 76
Owner Earnings €16.72 €24.90 €38.64 72
5Y Revenue Exit €2.81 €5.87 €10.27 66
5Y EBITDA Exit €31.80 €56.00 €88.04 70
10Y Revenue Exit €6.62 €9.11 €11.53 65
10Y EBITDA Exit €22.84 €37.42 €53.18 65
Multiples
EV/EBIT €2.42 €6.64 €10.86 61
EV/EBITDA €56.90 €79.27 €101.65 67
EV/Revenue n/a n/a €1.65 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €4.73 €6.34 €9.46 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €12.71 €19.11 €29.02 75
Rev-Margin DCF €2.81 €6.46 €11.23 66

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 35/100

Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64

Profitability 13
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 52
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 18
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 16
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 93
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 91
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 93
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 40
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 18/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−11.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
0.7% (2022) → 2.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+50.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +47.3% a year for the price and −0.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−3.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+3.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+3.1%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.8%

AMS2 screens 89% overvalued. Compare with NVIDIA Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 335 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −47% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 2.66× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.81× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 0.80× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 69.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 7.2× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 0.23× · Cheapest 25%

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Semiconductors stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
NVIDIA Corporation NVDA $228.87 $197.96 −14%
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSM $452.00 $497.20 +10%
Broadcom Inc AVGO $364.54 $303.52 −17%
SK hynix Inc 000660 1,862,000 KRW 2,048,200 KRW +10%
Micron Technology, Inc MU $1,096 $151.51 −86%
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc AMD $623.77 $122.74 −80%
Intel Corporation INTC $123.86 $35.41 −71%
Texas Instruments Incorporated TXN $271.41 $82.09 −70%
Arm Holdings ARM $333.20 $44.44 −87%
QUALCOMM Incorporated QCOM $198.27 $218.10 +10%

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AMS OSRAM AG · Fair Value
€12.44 −89%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AMS OSRAM AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AMS2

Frequently asked questions

Is AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €12.44 versus a price of €23.50, about −47% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AMS2?
Our model-based fair value for AMS OSRAM AG is €12.44 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €23.50.
What is the quality score of AMS2?
AMS OSRAM AG has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €12.44 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario €8.44, optimistic scenario €18.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AMS OSRAM AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €12.44, about −47% upside versus a price of €23.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €8.44, optimistic scenario €18.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
AMS OSRAM AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AMS OSRAM AG would have to grow free cash flow by +50.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew -11.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AMS2 use?
Our models discount AMS OSRAM AG at 13.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.80, country premium for Austria. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AMS OSRAM AG that is +50.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at AMS OSRAM AG grew -11.7 % a year. The price currently implies +50.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AMS OSRAM AG (+50.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.63 %: that much free cash flow AMS OSRAM AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AMS OSRAM AG it is €12.44 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of €23.50. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AMS OSRAM AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, AMS2 trades above its calculated fair value: price €23.50, fair value €12.44, a gap of about −47% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AMS2?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€23.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€12.44). For AMS OSRAM AG the two are €11.06 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AMS OSRAM AG worth?
The market values AMS OSRAM AG at about €2.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is €23.50; our models calculate a fair value of €12.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AMS2?
Our models span a range for AMS OSRAM AG: cautious scenario €8.44, base €12.44, optimistic €18.29 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price €23.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of AMS2?
The PEG ratio of AMS OSRAM AG is 0.23 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
Balance-sheet figures for AMS OSRAM AG (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −20.9%, debt of 2.66 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AMS2 from its 52-week high?
AMS OSRAM AG trades at €23.50, about 10% below its 52-week high of €26.20 and 212% above the low of €7.54 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €12.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AMS OSRAM AG?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, SK hynix Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AMS OSRAM AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price €23.50, calculated fair value €12.44 (−47%), Quality Score 35/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AMS2 calculated?
We run AMS OSRAM AG through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €12.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. AMS OSRAM AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €23.50. Our model-based fair value is €12.44, about −47% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AMS OSRAM AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€18.29). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (€8.44 to €18.29) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of AMS OSRAM AG

How large is the market capitalisation of AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
The market capitalisation of AMS OSRAM AG is €2.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AMS OSRAM AG is 0.60 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
Earnings per share at AMS OSRAM AG are €−2.05. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
The net margin of AMS OSRAM AG is −3.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AMS OSRAM AG is −20.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AMS OSRAM AG is 0.0% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
The operating margin of AMS OSRAM AG is 0.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2)?
Revenue at AMS OSRAM AG is growing −2.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −11.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does AMS OSRAM AG (AMS2) carry?
The net debt of AMS OSRAM AG is €1.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 28.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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