AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of AMERISAFE Inc stock $24.98, price $19.59, upside +27.5%, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $19.59 – $54.36 · fair‑value band $18.93 – $28.32 · the $19.59 price screens below the $24.98 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.
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AMERISAFE, Inc., an insurance holding company, underwrites workers' compensation insurance in the United States. The company provides benefits to injured employees for temporary or permanent disability, death, and medical and hospital expenses.
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It sells its products through retail and wholesale brokers and agents; and small and mid-sized employers engaged in hazardous industries, including construction, trucking, logging and lumber, agriculture, manufacturing, telecommunications, and maritime.
The company was incorporated in 1985 and is based in Deridder, Louisiana.
Stock analysis
AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF) currently trades at $19.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $24.98, implying the stock looks roughly 22% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $26.64 per share, and 3 of the 6 models we run sit above the $19.59 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.33, and 3 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $18.93 (bear) to $28.32 (bull), the price of $19.59 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
AMERISAFE Inc reported revenue of $317M in FY2025 versus $316M in FY2021, a compound +0.1%/yr. Reported net income was $47.1M in FY2025, compounding −8.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $428M Small · P/E ratio 7.9 · P/S ratio 1.28 · EPS (TTM) $2.48 · Dividend yield 8.2% · Net margin 14.0% · Return on equity 18.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at 28%, AMSF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$18.93Fair Value $24.98Bull$28.32
Price $19.59 · Upside +27.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7546 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
SaleAnastasios OmiridisEVP-CFO1,247 shares at $40.21$50,142Nov 20, 2025
Plus 8 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.36/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.3% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−3.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−11.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−11.2% vs −3.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 19%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Specialty · 23 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Below median
Fair Value upside+27.5% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)18.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)14.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)19.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)13.4% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)8.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.19× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Specialty median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AMERISAFE Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AMSF
Frequently asked questions
Is AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $24.98 versus a price of $19.59, about +28% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of AMSF?
Our model-based fair value for AMERISAFE Inc is $24.98 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $19.59.
What is the quality score of AMSF?
AMERISAFE Inc has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $24.98 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $18.93, optimistic scenario $28.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AMERISAFE Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $24.98, about +28% upside versus a price of $19.59 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $18.93, optimistic scenario $28.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF)?
AMERISAFE Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $336M (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does AMERISAFE Inc pay a dividend?
AMERISAFE Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 8.17% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
How much is the dividend of AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
AMERISAFE Inc pays a dividend of $1.60 per share a year, a dividend yield of 8.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 11, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2013. The payout ratio is 64.5% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.30 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AMERISAFE Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +17.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.4 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AMSF use?
Our models discount AMERISAFE Inc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AMERISAFE Inc that is +17.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at AMERISAFE Inc grew -1.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +17.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AMERISAFE Inc (+17.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.42 %: that much free cash flow AMERISAFE Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AMERISAFE Inc it is $24.98 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $19.59. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is AMERISAFE Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, AMSF trades below its calculated fair value: price $19.59, fair value $24.98, a gap of about +28% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AMSF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($19.59); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($24.98). For AMERISAFE Inc the two are $5.39 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AMERISAFE Inc worth?
The market values AMERISAFE Inc at about $428M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $19.59; our models calculate a fair value of $24.98 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AMSF?
Our models span a range for AMERISAFE Inc: cautious scenario $18.93, base $24.98, optimistic $28.32 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $19.59). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AMSF?
AMERISAFE Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.9 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $24.98 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 15.5. Other multiples: PEG 1.8, P/B 1.7, P/S 1.3, EV/EBITDA 7.0.
What is the PEG ratio of AMSF?
The PEG ratio of AMERISAFE Inc is 1.81 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF)?
Balance-sheet figures for AMERISAFE Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 18.2%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AMSF from its 52-week high?
AMERISAFE Inc trades at $19.59, about 50% below its 52-week high of $39.08 and at the low of $19.59 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $24.98 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AMERISAFE Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Fidelity National Financial, Inc, Medibank Private Limited, AXIS Capital Holdings, First American Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AMERISAFE Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $19.59, calculated fair value $24.98 (+28%), Quality Score 59/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AMSF calculated?
We run AMERISAFE Inc through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $24.98 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. AMERISAFE Inc currently trades 22% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $19.59. Our model-based fair value is $24.98, about +28% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AMERISAFE Inc right now?
Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF) come from?
Earnings per share at AMERISAFE Inc grew −2.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.8 %, EBIT margin −0.9 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of AMERISAFE Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF)?
The market capitalisation of AMERISAFE Inc is $428M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AMERISAFE Inc is 1.28 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF)?
Earnings per share at AMERISAFE Inc are $2.48 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF)?
The dividend yield of AMERISAFE Inc is 8.2% (payout 64.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF)?
The net margin of AMERISAFE Inc is 14.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AMERISAFE Inc is 18.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AMERISAFE Inc is 5.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF)?
The operating margin of AMERISAFE Inc is 19.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF)?
Revenue at AMERISAFE Inc is growing +13.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF)?
Earnings per share at AMERISAFE Inc are growing +6.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does AMERISAFE Inc (AMSF) hold?
AMERISAFE Inc holds more cash than debt, $61.9M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026