AMERISAFE, Inc (AMSF) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $584M
AMERISAFE, Inc
AMSF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 25, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price −17.6% over the past month.
A solid business, screening 13% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
- Our model range runs from $24.58 (bear) to $40.96 (bull), base $32.77. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 55/100 (solid quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $29.04 – $54.36 · fair‑value band $24.58 – $40.96 · the $29.12 price screens below the $32.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 25, 2026.
Analysis
AMERISAFE, Inc (AMSF) currently trades at $29.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $32.77, implying the stock looks roughly 12.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, AMERISAFE, Inc generated revenue of $325M at a net margin of 14.3%. Revenue grew 10.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $61.9M. Fundamentals as of Jul 25, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $24.58 (bear case) to $40.96 (bull case); at $29.12, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 46% fair-value upside, at 13%, AMSF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($22.91) versus Asset-Based ($9.01). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 25, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
AMERISAFE, Inc., an insurance holding company, underwrites workers' compensation insurance in the United States. The company provides benefits to injured employees for temporary or permanent disability, death, and medical and hospital expenses.
Full company description
AMERISAFE, Inc., an insurance holding company, underwrites workers' compensation insurance in the United States. The company provides benefits to injured employees for temporary or permanent disability, death, and medical and hospital expenses. It sells its products through retail and wholesale brokers and agents; and small and mid-sized employers engaged in hazardous industries, including construction, trucking, logging and lumber, agriculture, manufacturing, telecommunications, and maritime. The company was incorporated in 1985 and is based in Deridder, Louisiana.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AMERISAFE, Inc reported revenue of $317M in FY2025 versus $316M in FY2021, a compound +0.1%/yr. Reported net income was $47.1M in FY2025, compounding −8.0%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- AMERISAFE Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- AMERISAFE Q2 Earnings Miss Estimates Despite Strong Premium Growth
- AMERISAFE, Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary
- Amerisafe (AMSF) Lags Q2 Earnings Estimates
Peer Group
Insurance - Specialty · 32 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Insurance - Specialty median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Insurance - Specialty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 25, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fidelity National Financial, Inc FNF | $49.53 | $29.08 | -41% |
| AXIS Capital Holdings AXS | $114.62 | $177.90 | +55% |
| First American Financial Corporation FAF | $70.06 | $79.33 | +13% |
| Enact Holdings ACT | $46.52 | $62.79 | +35% |
| MGIC Investment Corporation MTG | $29.47 | $45.39 | +54% |
| Essent Group ESNT | $66.71 | $97.33 | +46% |
| Radian Group RDN | $39.14 | $56.98 | +46% |
| Protector Forsikring ASA PROT | kr 485.80 | kr 418.04 | -14% |
| Assured Guaranty Ltd AGO | $82.49 | $147.67 | +79% |
| NMI Holdings NMIH | $41.16 | $66.55 | +62% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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