Aspen Group (APZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Aspen Group stock A$3.52, price A$4.99, that is 29.5% below the price, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.21 – A$6.29 · fair‑value band A$1.79 – A$6.80 · the A$4.99 price screens above the A$3.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Aspen Group is a stapled entity comprising Aspen Group Limited (the Company) and its controlled entities, and Aspen Property Trust and its controlled entities.
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Aspen was established for the purpose of facilitating a joint quotation of the Trust and the Company and their controlled entities on the ASX, with both entities being stapled together.
The Deed of the Trust and the Constitution of the Company ensure that, for so long as the two entities remain jointly quoted, the number of units in the Trust and the number of shares in the Company shall be equal and that unitholders and shareholders be identical.
With the establishment of Aspen via a stapling arrangement, the combined group has common business objectives and operates as a combined entity in the core business of owning, developing and operating affordable accommodation assets.
The Trust, the Company and their controlled entities are domiciled in Australia.
The consolidated financial statements of Aspen as at and for the year ended 30 June 2025 are combined financial statements that present the financial statements and accompanying notes of both the Company and the Trust along with their subsidiaries and their interests in associates and jointly controlled entities.
Aspen is a for-profit entity and is primarily involved in investment in and operation of accommodation assets. Aspen Group was incorporated in 2001 in Australia. The address of Aspen's registered office is Suite 21, 285A Crown Street, Surry Hills, New South Wales 2010.
Stock analysis
Aspen Group (APZ) currently trades at A$4.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.52, 29% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$4.30 per share, and 1 of the 16 models we run sit above the A$4.99 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$1.56, and 15 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$1.79 (bear) to A$6.80 (bull), the price of A$4.99 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Aspen Group reported revenue of A$141M in FY2026 versus A$46.7M in FY2022, a compound +31.9%/yr. Reported net income was A$72.6M in FY2026, compounding −0.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$1.2B (≈ $798M) Small · P/E ratio 16.1 · P/S ratio 8.20 · EPS (TTM) A$0.3100 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 51.4% · Return on equity 12.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 75 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at −29%, APZ screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$1.79Fair Value A$3.52BullA$6.80
Price A$4.99 · Downside -29.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0723 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual IncomeA$2.36A$2.70A$3.6176
FCF DCFA$2.29A$3.78A$8.3375
Growth DCFA$2.11A$4.14A$8.0074
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFA$2.29A$3.78A$8.3375
5Y Revenue ExitA$1.63A$3.31A$6.7468
5Y EBITDA ExitA$2.13A$4.36A$8.6070
10Y Revenue ExitA$1.75A$4.30A$6.2965
10Y EBITDA ExitA$2.17A$5.28A$11.0163
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMA$0.8700A$1.65A$2.3867
DDM Multi-StageA$0.8700A$1.46A$1.7567
Multiples
P/S MultipleA$3.00A$4.00A$5.0158
P/B MultipleA$1.62A$2.15A$2.6955
EV/EBITA$2.47A$3.61A$4.7565
EV/EBITDAA$1.79A$2.70A$3.6266
EV/RevenueA$0.9400A$1.75A$2.5552
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)A$1.32A$1.77A$2.6454
Growth DCF
Growth DCFA$2.11A$4.14A$8.0074
Rev-Margin DCFA$1.63A$3.88A$7.4868
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeA$2.36A$2.70A$3.6176
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+30.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.9% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Per share before 2012divided by the spin-off factor 1.1605
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.7% vs 21.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 34%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.0% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Diversified · 114 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−29.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)51.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)34.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)24.5% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.26× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Aspen Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/APZ
Frequently asked questions
Is Aspen Group (APZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$3.52 versus a price of A$4.99, about 29% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of APZ?
Our model-based fair value for Aspen Group is A$3.52 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$4.99.
What is the quality score of APZ?
Aspen Group has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Aspen Group (APZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$3.52 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$1.79, optimistic scenario A$6.80. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Aspen Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$3.52, about 29% lower versus a price of A$4.99 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$1.79, optimistic scenario A$6.80. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Aspen Group (APZ)?
Aspen Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$141M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Aspen Group pay a dividend?
Aspen Group currently shows a dividend yield of 2.20% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Aspen Group (APZ) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Aspen Group pays a dividend of A$0.11 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 29, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2003. The payout ratio is 35.5% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.71 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Aspen Group (APZ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Aspen Group would have to grow free cash flow by +19.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +31.8 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of APZ use?
Our models discount Aspen Group at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.68, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Aspen Group that is +19.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Aspen Group (APZ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Aspen Group grew +31.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +19.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Aspen Group (APZ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Aspen Group (+19.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Aspen Group (APZ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.73 %: that much free cash flow Aspen Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Aspen Group (APZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Aspen Group it is A$3.52 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of A$4.99. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Aspen Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, APZ trades above its calculated fair value: price A$4.99, fair value A$3.52, a gap of about −29% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of APZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$4.99); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$3.52). For Aspen Group the two are A$1.47 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Aspen Group worth?
The market values Aspen Group at about A$1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is A$4.99; our models calculate a fair value of A$3.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about APZ?
Our models span a range for Aspen Group: cautious scenario A$1.79, base A$3.52, optimistic A$6.80 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price A$4.99). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of APZ?
Aspen Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.1 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$3.52 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 9.9. Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/B 1.9, P/S 8.2, EV/EBITDA 26.6.
What is the PEG ratio of APZ?
The PEG ratio of Aspen Group is 1.94 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Aspen Group (APZ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Aspen Group (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 12.7%, debt of 0.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is APZ from its 52-week high?
Aspen Group trades at A$4.99, about 21% below its 52-week high of A$6.29 and 17% above the low of A$4.25 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$3.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Aspen Group?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Swiss Prime Site AG, The Phoenix Mills Limited, Prestige Estates Projects Limited, Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Aspen Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price A$4.99, calculated fair value A$3.52 (−29%), Quality Score 50/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of APZ calculated?
We run Aspen Group through 16 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$3.52 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Aspen Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Aspen Group (APZ)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was A$4.99. Our model-based fair value is A$3.52, about 29% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Aspen Group right now?
The model range is unusually wide (A$1.79 to A$6.80). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Aspen Group (APZ) come from?
Earnings per share at Aspen Group grew +23.9 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.5 %, EBIT margin +18.3 %, tax rate +5.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −10.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Aspen Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Aspen Group (APZ)?
The market capitalisation of Aspen Group is A$1.2B (≈ $798M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Aspen Group (APZ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Aspen Group is 8.20 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Aspen Group (APZ)?
Earnings per share at Aspen Group are A$0.3100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Aspen Group (APZ)?
The dividend yield of Aspen Group is 2.2% (payout 35.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Aspen Group (APZ)?
The net margin of Aspen Group is 51.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Aspen Group (APZ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Aspen Group is 12.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Aspen Group (APZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Aspen Group is 4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Aspen Group (APZ)?
The operating margin of Aspen Group is 34.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Aspen Group (APZ)?
Revenue at Aspen Group is growing +24.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +29.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Aspen Group (APZ)?
Earnings per share at Aspen Group are growing +27.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Aspen Group (APZ) carry?
The net debt of Aspen Group is A$218M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 5.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026