Aspen Group (APZ) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · AU · Market cap A$1.1B
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price +1.3% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 51% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$3.28). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (A$1.77 to A$3.28) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.9739 – A$6.29 · fair‑value band A$1.77 – A$3.28 · the A$5.27 price screens above the A$2.60 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Aspen Group (APZ) currently trades at A$5.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$2.60, implying the stock looks roughly 50.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Aspen Group generated revenue of A$127M at a net margin of 48.6%. Revenue grew 37.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.0%. Net debt stands at A$121M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$1.77 (bear case) to A$3.28 (bull case); at A$5.27, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 54% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -51%, APZ screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (A$3.09) versus Dividend Discount (A$1.04). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Aspen Group is a stapled entity comprising Aspen Group Limited (the Company) and its controlled entities, and Aspen Property Trust and its controlled entities. Aspen was established for the purpose of facilitating a joint quotation of the Trust and the Company and their controlled entities on the ASX, with both entities being stapled together.
Full company description
Aspen Group is a stapled entity comprising Aspen Group Limited (the Company) and its controlled entities, and Aspen Property Trust and its controlled entities. Aspen was established for the purpose of facilitating a joint quotation of the Trust and the Company and their controlled entities on the ASX, with both entities being stapled together. The Deed of the Trust and the Constitution of the Company ensure that, for so long as the two entities remain jointly quoted, the number of units in the Trust and the number of shares in the Company shall be equal and that unitholders and shareholders be identical. With the establishment of Aspen via a stapling arrangement, the combined group has common business objectives and operates as a combined entity in the core business of owning, developing and operating affordable accommodation assets. The Trust, the Company and their controlled entities are domiciled in Australia. The consolidated financial statements of Aspen as at and for the year ended 30 June 2025 are combined financial statements that present the financial statements and accompanying notes of both the Company and the Trust along with their subsidiaries and their interests in associates and jointly controlled entities. Aspen is a for-profit entity and is primarily involved in investment in and operation of accommodation assets. Aspen Group was incorporated in 2001 in Australia. The address of Aspen's registered office is Suite 21, 285A Crown Street, Surry Hills, New South Wales 2010.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Aspen Group reported revenue of A$108M in FY2025 versus A$35.5M in FY2021, a compound +32.1%/yr. Reported net income was A$57.1M in FY2025, compounding +22.4%/yr from FY2021.
APZ screens 51% overvalued. Compare with Swiss Prime Site AG →
Peer Group
Real Estate - Diversified · 138 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Swiss Prime Site AG SPSN | CHF 129.20 | CHF 44.83 | -65% |
| Central Pattana Public Company CPN | 68.75 THB | 71.37 THB | +4% |
| Prestige Estates Projects Limited PRESTIGE | ₹1,733 | ₹645.21 | -63% |
| The Phoenix Mills Limited PHOENIXLTD | ₹2,076 | ₹701.74 | -66% |
| Fastighets AB BALDB | kr 50.42 | kr 70.70 | +40% |
| Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction Company 4325 | 16.39 SAR | 11.62 SAR | -29% |
| Hainan Airport Infrastructure Co 600515 | ¥2.89 | ¥0.3300 | -89% |
| Shenzhen Special Economic Zone Real Estate & Properties (Group) Co 000029 | ¥19.95 | ¥4.60 | -77% |
| Parque Arauco S.A PARAUCO | 3,940 CLP | 2,777 CLP | -30% |
| Corporación Inmobiliaria Vesta, S.A. VESTA | 59.57 MXN | 53.94 MXN | -9% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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