A&W Food Services of Canada (AW) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of A&W Food Services of Canada stock C$32.73, price C$36.62, that is 10.6% below the price, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
25‑month range C$27.73 – C$37.83 · fair‑value band C$16.70 – C$50.35 · the C$36.62 price screens above the C$32.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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A & W Food Services of Canada Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and franchise of quick service restaurants in Canada. The company operates quick service restaurants that serve burgers and sandwiches under the A&W and Pret A Manger brands.
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A & W Food Services of Canada Inc. was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in North Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
A&W Food Services of Canada (AW) currently trades at C$36.62, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$32.73, 11% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of C$42.41 per share, and 10 of the 22 models we run sit above the C$36.62 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at C$20.85, and 12 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$16.70 (bear) to C$50.35 (bull), the price of C$36.62 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
A&W Food Services of Canada reported revenue of C$294M in FY2025 versus C$245M in FY2021, a compound +4.7%/yr. Reported net income was C$55.2M in FY2025, compounding +11.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$884M (≈ $625M) Small · P/E ratio 15.6 · P/S ratio 2.92 · EPS (TTM) C$2.35 · Dividend yield 5.2% · Net margin 18.8% · Return on equity 26.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 76 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −11%, AW screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$16.70Fair Value C$32.73BullC$50.35
Price C$36.62 · Downside -10.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (C$0.3676 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +9.6% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
−33.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−38.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−21.0% vs 0.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 32%
2025 sits 128% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.5%/yr over ~9Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.3% a year for the price.
Compare A&W Food Services of Canada with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 199 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−10.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)26.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.5% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)18.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)34.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.05× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)15.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B3.98× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)2.92× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)15.8× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "A&W Food Services of Canada Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AW
Frequently asked questions
Is A&W Food Services of Canada (AW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$32.73 versus a price of C$36.62, about 11% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AW?
Our model-based fair value for A&W Food Services of Canada is C$32.73 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$36.62.
What is the quality score of AW?
A&W Food Services of Canada has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for A&W Food Services of Canada (AW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$32.73 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$16.70, optimistic scenario C$50.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the A&W Food Services of Canada stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$32.73, about 11% lower versus a price of C$36.62 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$16.70, optimistic scenario C$50.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of A&W Food Services of Canada (AW)?
A&W Food Services of Canada reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$302M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does A&W Food Services of Canada pay a dividend?
A&W Food Services of Canada currently shows a dividend yield of 5.24% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of A&W Food Services of Canada (AW) and when is the ex-dividend date?
A&W Food Services of Canada pays a dividend of C$1.92 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 15, 2026. The payout ratio is 81.7% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.21 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into A&W Food Services of Canada (AW)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, A&W Food Services of Canada would have to grow free cash flow by +9.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.8 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AW use?
Our models discount A&W Food Services of Canada at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.25, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For A&W Food Services of Canada that is +9.5 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has A&W Food Services of Canada (AW) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at A&W Food Services of Canada grew +7.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +9.5 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of A&W Food Services of Canada (AW) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into A&W Food Services of Canada (+9.5 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of A&W Food Services of Canada (AW)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.33 %: that much free cash flow A&W Food Services of Canada produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of A&W Food Services of Canada (AW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For A&W Food Services of Canada it is C$32.73 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of C$36.62. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is A&W Food Services of Canada stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, AW trades above its calculated fair value: price C$36.62, fair value C$32.73, a gap of about −11% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AW?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$36.62); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$32.73). For A&W Food Services of Canada the two are C$3.89 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is A&W Food Services of Canada worth?
The market values A&W Food Services of Canada at about C$884M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is C$36.62; our models calculate a fair value of C$32.73 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AW?
Our models span a range for A&W Food Services of Canada: cautious scenario C$16.70, base C$32.73, optimistic C$50.35 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price C$36.62). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AW?
A&W Food Services of Canada trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.6 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$32.73 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.0, P/S 2.9, EV/EBITDA 12.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of A&W Food Services of Canada (AW)?
Balance-sheet figures for A&W Food Services of Canada (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 26.4%, debt of 1.05 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AW from its 52-week high?
A&W Food Services of Canada trades at C$36.62, about 1% below its 52-week high of C$37.09 and 9% above the low of C$33.68 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$32.73 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to A&W Food Services of Canada?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Yum! Brands, Inc, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is A&W Food Services of Canada stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price C$36.62, calculated fair value C$32.73 (−11%), Quality Score 59/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AW calculated?
We run A&W Food Services of Canada through 22 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of C$32.73 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. A&W Food Services of Canada itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of A&W Food Services of Canada (AW)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was C$36.62. Our model-based fair value is C$32.73, about 11% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with A&W Food Services of Canada right now?
The model range is unusually wide (C$16.70 to C$50.35). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of A&W Food Services of Canada (AW) come from?
Earnings per share at A&W Food Services of Canada grew −6.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −7.5 %, EBIT margin +10.9 %, tax rate −3.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of A&W Food Services of Canada
How large is the market capitalisation of A&W Food Services of Canada (AW)?
The market capitalisation of A&W Food Services of Canada is C$884M (≈ $625M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of A&W Food Services of Canada (AW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of A&W Food Services of Canada is 2.92 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of A&W Food Services of Canada (AW)?
Earnings per share at A&W Food Services of Canada are C$2.35 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of A&W Food Services of Canada (AW)?
The dividend yield of A&W Food Services of Canada is 5.2% (payout 81.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of A&W Food Services of Canada (AW)?
The net margin of A&W Food Services of Canada is 18.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of A&W Food Services of Canada (AW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of A&W Food Services of Canada is 26.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of A&W Food Services of Canada (AW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of A&W Food Services of Canada is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of A&W Food Services of Canada (AW)?
The operating margin of A&W Food Services of Canada is 34.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at A&W Food Services of Canada (AW)?
Revenue at A&W Food Services of Canada is growing +11.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at A&W Food Services of Canada (AW)?
Earnings per share at A&W Food Services of Canada are growing +12.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does A&W Food Services of Canada (AW) carry?
The net debt of A&W Food Services of Canada is C$905M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 16.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026