A & W Food Services of Canada Inc (AW) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CA · Market cap C$867M
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from C$25.00 to C$23.30 (−6.8%) since Jul 14, 2026. Share price +1.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 37% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (C$15.01 to C$38.29) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (22 months)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
22‑month range C$28.11 – C$38.34 · fair‑value band C$15.01 – C$38.29 · the C$37.17 price screens above the C$23.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
A & W Food Services of Canada Inc (AW) currently trades at C$37.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$23.30, implying the stock looks roughly 37.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, A & W Food Services of Canada Inc generated revenue of C$292M at a net margin of 19.1%. Revenue grew 14.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 30.1%. Net debt stands at C$905M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$15.01 (bear case) to C$38.29 (bull case); at C$37.17, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -47% fair-value upside, at -37%, AW screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (C$39.21) versus Asset-Based (C$6.19). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
A & W Food Services of Canada Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and franchise of quick service restaurants in Canada. The company operates quick service restaurants that serve burgers and sandwiches under the A&W and Pret A Manger brands. A & W Food Services of Canada Inc.
Full company description
A & W Food Services of Canada Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the development and franchise of quick service restaurants in Canada. The company operates quick service restaurants that serve burgers and sandwiches under the A&W and Pret A Manger brands. A & W Food Services of Canada Inc. was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in North Vancouver, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
A & W Food Services of Canada Inc reported revenue of C$294M in FY2025 versus C$245M in FY2021, a compound +4.7%/yr. Reported net income was C$55.2M in FY2025, compounding +11.6%/yr from FY2021.
AW screens 37% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Peer Group
Restaurants · 226 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $105.49 | $35.83 | -66% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $34.63 | $18.43 | -47% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $163.54 | $59.66 | -64% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.19 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $195.74 | $173.68 | -11% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $43.90 | $55.10 | +26% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $197.03 | $104.89 | -47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $68.36 | $12.80 | -81% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $322.18 | $231.96 | -28% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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