Burlington Stores Inc (BURL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Burlington Stores Inc stock $150, price $258, that is 41.8% below the price, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $109.78 – $372.19 · fair‑value band $74.03 – $214.65 · the $258.38 price screens above the $150.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 3, 2026.
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Burlington Stores, Inc. operates as a retailer of branded merchandise in the United States and Puerto Rico.
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The company offers fashion-focused merchandise, including women's ready-to-wear apparel, menswear, youth apparel, footwear, accessories, home furnishings, toys, gifts, and coats, as well as baby and beauty merchandise products.
It operates stores under the Burlington Stores, and Cohoes Fashions brands in Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico. The company was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Burlington, New Jersey.
Stock analysis
Burlington Stores Inc (BURL) currently trades at $258.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $150.41, 42% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $165.13 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the $258.38 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $16.24, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $74.03 (bear) to $214.65 (bull), the price of $258.38 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Burlington Stores Inc reported revenue of $11.6B in FY2026 versus $9.3B in FY2022, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was $610M in FY2026, compounding +10.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $16.6B Large · P/E ratio 22.8 · P/S ratio 1.36 · EPS (TTM) $11.33 · Net margin 5.9% · Return on equity 41.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.0% · Operating margin 6.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −42%, BURL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$74.03Fair Value $150.41Bull$214.65
Price $258.38 · Downside -41.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($8.63 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $14.4M and none bought.
SaleJennifer VecchioGroup President and CMO11× since Dec 1, 2025: 31,405 shares, avg. $324.77$10.2MNov 2, 2026
SaleKristin WolfeChief Financial Officer8,200 shares at $340.19$2.8MJun 17, 2026
SaleStephen FerroniSVP, Chief Accounting Officer2,343 shares at $337.22$790,111Jun 11, 2026
SaleMatthew PaschChief Human Resources Officer3,773 shares at $317.21$1.2MJun 5, 2026
SaleTravis MarquettePresident and COO3× since Mar 24, 2026: 4,843 shares, avg. $323.81$1.6MMay 5, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMichael GoodwinDirector321 shares at $324.07$104,027Mar 24, 2026
Plus 16 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.5% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+28.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+28.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.8.1% vs 16.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2% → 7%
2026 sits 82% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+43.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +39.7% a year for the price and +5.7% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The off-price retail model provides sourcing flexibility and lean inventory, yet limited moat evidence and high rivalry with modest margins constrain durability.
Main risk: Burlington's high leverage and need for additional debt to fund store expansion and other investments could constrain flexibility or raise refinancing risks amid ongoing capital spending.
Bull case: By optimizing its smaller store formats and merchandising agility Burlington could capture additional share from traditional retailers while managing costs effectively against peers.
Bear case: If larger off-price rivals encroach further on sourcing opportunities or customers Burlington might face sustained margin pressure and execution challenges during its rapid expansion.
Burlington keeps opening dozens of new stores monthly and is halfway through refreshing its existing locations with open layouts and clearer signage. Our models see the shares as overvalued even though the off-price model gives buyers flexibility to chase in-season deals and keep inventory lean. Does the added scale from expansion and better stores lift productivity enough to cover the costs, or does it stretch execution in a category where every penny of margin matters?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Apparel Retail · 103 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Below median
Fair Value upside−41.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)41.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)5.9% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)6.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)11.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.11× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)22.8× · Pricier than median
P/B9.17× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)1.36× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow96.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA12.8× · Pricier than median
PEG2.99× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 52
FUTURE (revenue growth)55· sector 14
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)44· sector 100
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 58
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Burlington Stores Inc (BURL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $150.41 versus a price of $258.38, about 42% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BURL?
Our model-based fair value for Burlington Stores Inc is $150.41 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $258.38.
What is the quality score of BURL?
Burlington Stores Inc has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Burlington Stores Inc (BURL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $150.41 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $74.03, optimistic scenario $214.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Burlington Stores Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $150.41, about 42% lower versus a price of $258.38 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $74.03, optimistic scenario $214.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Burlington Stores Inc (BURL)?
Burlington Stores Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $12.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Burlington Stores Inc (BURL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Burlington Stores Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +43.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.0 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of BURL use?
Our models discount Burlington Stores Inc at 10.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.43, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Burlington Stores Inc that is +43.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Burlington Stores Inc (BURL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Burlington Stores Inc grew +15.0 % a year. The price currently implies +43.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Burlington Stores Inc (BURL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Burlington Stores Inc (+43.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Burlington Stores Inc (BURL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.04 %: that much free cash flow Burlington Stores Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Burlington Stores Inc (BURL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Burlington Stores Inc it is $150.41 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $258.38. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Burlington Stores Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, BURL trades above its calculated fair value: price $258.38, fair value $150.41, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of BURL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($258.38); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($150.41). For Burlington Stores Inc the two are $107.97 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Burlington Stores Inc worth?
The market values Burlington Stores Inc at about $16.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $258.38; our models calculate a fair value of $150.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about BURL?
Our models span a range for Burlington Stores Inc: cautious scenario $74.03, base $150.41, optimistic $214.65 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $258.38). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of BURL?
Burlington Stores Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 22.8 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $150.41 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2023 ex one-offs: 31.5. Other multiples: PEG 3.0, P/B 9.2, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 12.8.
What is the PEG ratio of BURL?
The PEG ratio of Burlington Stores Inc is 2.99 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Burlington Stores Inc (BURL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Burlington Stores Inc (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 41.4%, debt of 1.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is BURL from its 52-week high?
Burlington Stores Inc trades at $258.38, about 31% below its 52-week high of $372.19 and 14% above the low of $227.28 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $150.41 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Burlington Stores Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A, The TJX Companies, Inc, Fast Retailing Co, Ross Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Burlington Stores Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $258.38, calculated fair value $150.41 (−42%), Quality Score 58/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of BURL calculated?
We run Burlington Stores Inc through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $150.41, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Burlington Stores Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Burlington Stores Inc (BURL)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $258.38. Our model-based fair value is $150.41, about 42% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Burlington Stores Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($214.65). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($74.03 to $214.65). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Burlington Stores Inc (BURL) come from?
Earnings per share at Burlington Stores Inc grew +16.2 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.0 %, EBIT margin +0.9 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Burlington Stores Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Burlington Stores Inc (BURL)?
The market capitalisation of Burlington Stores Inc is $16.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Burlington Stores Inc (BURL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Burlington Stores Inc is 1.36 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Burlington Stores Inc (BURL)?
Earnings per share at Burlington Stores Inc are $11.33 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 22.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Burlington Stores Inc (BURL)?
The net margin of Burlington Stores Inc is 5.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Burlington Stores Inc (BURL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Burlington Stores Inc is 41.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Burlington Stores Inc (BURL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Burlington Stores Inc is 8.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Burlington Stores Inc (BURL)?
The operating margin of Burlington Stores Inc is 6.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Burlington Stores Inc (BURL)?
Revenue at Burlington Stores Inc is growing +11.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Burlington Stores Inc (BURL)?
Earnings per share at Burlington Stores Inc are growing +95.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Burlington Stores Inc (BURL) carry?
The net debt of Burlington Stores Inc is $4.8B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 27.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 3, 2026