Collins Foods Ltd (CKF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Collins Foods Ltd stock A$8.53, price A$9.24, that is 7.7% below the price, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$6.32 – A$12.20 · fair‑value band A$6.15 – A$12.98 · the A$9.24 price screens above the A$8.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 11, 2026.
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Collins Foods Limited engages in the operation, management, and administration of restaurants in Australia and Europe. The company operates through three segments: KFC Australia, KFC Europe, and Taco Bell Australia. It operates restaurants under the KFC and Taco Bell brands.
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The company was founded in 1969 and is based in Hamilton, Australia.
Stock analysis
Collins Foods Ltd (CKF) currently trades at A$9.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$8.53, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.3%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$19.17 per share, and 14 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$9.24 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at A$4.22, and 10 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$6.15 (bear) to A$12.98 (bull), the price of A$9.24 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Collins Foods Ltd reported revenue of A$1.6B in FY2026 versus A$1.2B in FY2022, a compound +7.7%/yr. Reported net income was A$44.2M in FY2026, compounding −5.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$1.1B (≈ $749M) Small · P/E ratio 25.1 · P/S ratio 0.69 · EPS (TTM) A$0.3677 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin 2.8% · Return on equity 11.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.2% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −8%, CKF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$6.15Fair Value A$8.53BullA$12.98
Price A$9.24 · Downside -7.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0597 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.72/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.7% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +6.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.9% vs 2.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2026 sits 242% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.9% a year for the price and +3.7% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 203 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−7.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.4% · Above median
Return on assets2.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)2.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)7.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.50× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)25.1× · Pricier than median
P/B2.61× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)0.69× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)11.4× · Cheaper than median
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Is Collins Foods Ltd (CKF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 11, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$8.53 versus a price of A$9.24, about 8% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of CKF?
Our model-based fair value for Collins Foods Ltd is A$8.53 (as of Nov 11, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$9.24.
What is the quality score of CKF?
Collins Foods Ltd has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Collins Foods Ltd (CKF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$8.53 (as of Nov 11, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$6.15, optimistic scenario A$12.98. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Collins Foods Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$8.53, about 8% lower versus a price of A$9.24 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario A$6.15, optimistic scenario A$12.98. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Collins Foods Ltd (CKF)?
Collins Foods Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$1.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 11, 2026).
Does Collins Foods Ltd pay a dividend?
Collins Foods Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 3.03% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 11, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Collins Foods Ltd (CKF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Collins Foods Ltd pays a dividend of A$0.28 per share a year, a dividend yield of 3.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 13, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2012. The payout ratio is 51.3% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 71.8%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.91 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Collins Foods Ltd (CKF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Collins Foods Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +1.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.4 % per year. As of Nov 11, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CKF use?
Our models discount Collins Foods Ltd at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.45, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Collins Foods Ltd that is +1.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Collins Foods Ltd (CKF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Collins Foods Ltd grew +8.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +1.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Collins Foods Ltd (CKF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Collins Foods Ltd (+1.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Collins Foods Ltd (CKF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.77 %: that much free cash flow Collins Foods Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Collins Foods Ltd (CKF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Collins Foods Ltd it is A$8.53 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026), against a price of A$9.24. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Collins Foods Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 11, 2026, CKF trades above its calculated fair value: price A$9.24, fair value A$8.53, a gap of about −8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CKF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$9.24); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$8.53). For Collins Foods Ltd the two are A$0.7100 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Collins Foods Ltd worth?
The market values Collins Foods Ltd at about A$1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 11, 2026). Per share that is A$9.24; our models calculate a fair value of A$8.53 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CKF?
Our models span a range for Collins Foods Ltd: cautious scenario A$6.15, base A$8.53, optimistic A$12.98 per share (as of Nov 11, 2026, price A$9.24). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CKF?
Collins Foods Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.1 (as of Nov 11, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$8.53 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 18.0 (reported 25.1). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 22.2. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 2.6, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 7.5.
What is the PEG ratio of CKF?
The PEG ratio of Collins Foods Ltd is 1.66 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 11, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Collins Foods Ltd (CKF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Collins Foods Ltd (as of Nov 11, 2026): return on equity 11.4%, debt of 0.50 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CKF from its 52-week high?
Collins Foods Ltd trades at A$9.24, about 18% below its 52-week high of A$11.32 and 20% above the low of A$7.67 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$8.53 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Collins Foods Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Yum! Brands, Inc, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Collins Foods Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 11, 2026: price A$9.24, calculated fair value A$8.53 (−8%), Quality Score 62/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CKF calculated?
We run Collins Foods Ltd through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$8.53 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.3% above its aggregate fair value. Collins Foods Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Collins Foods Ltd (CKF)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was A$9.24. Our model-based fair value is A$8.53, about 8% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Collins Foods Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (A$6.15 to A$12.98) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Collins Foods Ltd (CKF) come from?
Earnings per share at Collins Foods Ltd grew +2.9 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.4 %, EBIT margin −0.6 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Collins Foods Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Collins Foods Ltd (CKF)?
The market capitalisation of Collins Foods Ltd is A$1.1B (≈ $749M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Collins Foods Ltd (CKF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Collins Foods Ltd is 0.69 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Collins Foods Ltd (CKF)?
Earnings per share at Collins Foods Ltd are A$0.3677 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Collins Foods Ltd (CKF)?
The dividend yield of Collins Foods Ltd is 3.0% (payout 51.3%, on adjusted earnings, reported 71.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Collins Foods Ltd (CKF)?
The net margin of Collins Foods Ltd is 2.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Collins Foods Ltd (CKF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Collins Foods Ltd is 11.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Collins Foods Ltd (CKF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Collins Foods Ltd is 8.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Collins Foods Ltd (CKF)?
The operating margin of Collins Foods Ltd is 7.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Collins Foods Ltd (CKF)?
Revenue at Collins Foods Ltd is growing +6.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Collins Foods Ltd (CKF)?
Earnings per share at Collins Foods Ltd are growing +12.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Collins Foods Ltd (CKF) carry?
The net debt of Collins Foods Ltd is A$749M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 7.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 11, 2026