Collins Foods Limited (CKF) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · AU · Market cap A$941M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from A$8.22 to A$8.54 (+3.9%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price +3.9% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range (A$6.16 to A$13.01) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$6.32 – A$12.20 · fair‑value band A$6.16 – A$13.01 · the A$8.16 price screens below the A$8.54 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Collins Foods Limited (CKF) currently trades at A$8.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$8.54, implying the stock looks roughly 4.7% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Collins Foods Limited generated revenue of A$1.6B at a net margin of 0.8%. Revenue grew 6.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.8%. Net debt stands at A$749M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$6.16 (bear case) to A$13.01 (bull case); at A$8.16, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -51% fair-value upside, at 5%, CKF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (A$13.27) versus Asset-Based (A$2.39). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Collins Foods Limited engages in the operation, management, and administration of restaurants in Australia and Europe. The company operates through three segments: KFC Australia, KFC Europe, and Taco Bell Australia. It operates restaurants under the KFC and Taco Bell brands. The company was founded in 1969 and is based in Hamilton, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Collins Foods Limited reported revenue of A$1.6B in FY2026 versus A$1.2B in FY2022, a compound +7.7%/yr. Reported net income was A$44.2M in FY2026, compounding −5.3%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +11.6 pp · buybacks/dilution −2.2 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch CKF: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Restaurants · 224 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $108.49 | $35.83 | -67% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $32.00 | $17.92 | -44% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $150.34 | $58.17 | -61% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.50 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $218.90 | $173.68 | -21% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $47.90 | $54.27 | +13% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $214.28 | $104.89 | -51% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $51.02 | $12.80 | -75% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $353.72 | $227.31 | -36% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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