CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of CNH Industrial N.V. stock $8.65, price $11.25, that is 23.1% below the price, quality 53 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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IndustrialsUS · Based in United Kingdom · ISIN NL0010545661
CIBroad dataNov 6, 2026
CNH Industrial N.V.
CNH · US
Solid,but expensive
Our calculation puts a fair price 23% below what the stock costs today.
Generates free cash flow
0.9% dividend yield · Well covered
Broad data
Quality 53/100
Thin margins · 1.7% net margin (TTM)
Neutral coverage
Profit last quarter 35% below a year ago.
Fair value $8.65 · Overvalued (−23.1%)
Weak Growth(revenue 3y −8.4 %/yr in USD)
High debt
Trails peers(3/15)
Narrow moat32/100 · thin data
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Fresh regulatory scrutiny across the sector🚩John Deere ecosystem dominance🚩Chinese rivals expanding reach
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.13 – $16.25 · fair‑value band $5.01 – $13.76 · the $11.25 price screens above the $8.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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CNH Industrial N.V., an equipment company, engages in the develops, manufacture, and sale agricultural and construction equipment in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, South America, and the Asia Pacific.
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The company operates through three segments: Agriculture, Construction, and Financial Services.
The Agriculture segment develops, manufactures, distributes, and supports agriculture equipment, implements, and precision agriculture solutions, such as tractors, harvesters, hay and forage equipment, seeding and planting equipment, and self-propelled sprayers under Case IH, New Holland, STEYR, and Raven brands.
The Construction segment develops, manufactures, distributes, and supports construction equipment comprising excavators, crawler dozers, graders, wheel loaders, backhoe loaders, skid steer loaders, and compact track loaders under the New Holland Construction, Case Construction, and Eurocomach brands.
The Financial Services segment provides and administers financing to end-use customers for the purchase of new and used agricultural and construction equipment and components, as well as revolving charge account financing and other financial services under the Banco CNH brand.
This segment also offers wholesale financing to CNH dealers and distributors, as well as trade receivables factoring services. CNH Industrial N.V. was founded in 1842 and is headquartered in Basildon, the United Kingdom
Stock analysis
CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH) currently trades at $11.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.65, 23% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $9.62 per share, and 6 of the 23 models we run sit above the $11.25 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.61, and 17 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $5.01 (bear) to $13.76 (bull), the price of $11.25 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
CNH Industrial N.V. reported revenue of $18.1B in FY2025 versus $19.5B in FY2021, a compound −1.8%/yr. Reported net income was $510M in FY2025, compounding −26.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $18.5B Large · P/E ratio 46.1 · P/S ratio 1.02 · EPS (TTM) $0.2500 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 1.7% · Return on equity 3.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at −23%, CNH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$5.01Fair Value $8.65Bull$13.76
Price $11.25 · Downside -23.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1274 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
SaleFrancesco Vincenzo Maria TutinoChief Human Resources Officer48,385 shares at $10.13$490,140May 4, 2026
BuySuzanne HeywoodDirector52,522 shares at $9.52$500,009Nov 18, 2025
BuyHoward W. BuffettDirector10,100 shares at $9.93$100,269Nov 12, 2025
BuyVagn O SorensenDirector10,385 shares at $9.62$99,904Nov 11, 2025
Plus 8 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.5% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−4.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−18.8% vs 1.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 15%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 4.1%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.5% a year for the price and +1.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (92 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Low returns paired with high leverage form the main weakness and limit durable advantage, while support for sustainable farming stands as the chief strength.
Main risk: John Deere's closed data platform and stronger North American market position with roughly double CNH's share in large ag equipment could draw customers away or force CNH to lower prices on tractors and combines.
Bull case: CNH could leverage its multi-brand flexibility, mixed-fleet compatibility and accelerating AI-driven precision features to retain customers seeking open systems and deliver recurring service revenue that offsets any share pressure from rivals.
Bear case: If John Deere widens its ecosystem lead or Chinese entrants gain traction in premium segments, CNH might lose meaningful share in key markets, compressing equipment margins and slowing the shift to higher-margin tech services.
CNH is showing how its equipment supports more sustainable farming, as seen in recent trials helping Thai rice growers manage crop residue without burning. At the same time the agriculture business contends with softer demand and fresh regulatory scrutiny across the sector. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the precision and environmental initiatives expand margins faster than cyclical pressures erode them?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 143 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside−23.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.9% · Below median
Return on assets1.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)1.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)5.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.46× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
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Is CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $8.65 versus a price of $11.25, about 23% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of CNH?
Our model-based fair value for CNH Industrial N.V. is $8.65 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.25.
What is the quality score of CNH?
CNH Industrial N.V. has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $8.65 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.01, optimistic scenario $13.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the CNH Industrial N.V. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $8.65, about 23% lower versus a price of $11.25 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.01, optimistic scenario $13.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH)?
CNH Industrial N.V. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $18.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does CNH Industrial N.V. pay a dividend?
CNH Industrial N.V. currently shows a dividend yield of 0.89% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, CNH Industrial N.V. would have to grow free cash flow by +13.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.1 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of CNH use?
Our models discount CNH Industrial N.V. at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.26, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For CNH Industrial N.V. that is +13.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at CNH Industrial N.V. grew +4.1 % a year. The price currently implies +13.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into CNH Industrial N.V. (+13.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.28 %: that much free cash flow CNH Industrial N.V. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For CNH Industrial N.V. it is $8.65 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $11.25. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is CNH Industrial N.V. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, CNH trades above its calculated fair value: price $11.25, fair value $8.65, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of CNH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($8.65). For CNH Industrial N.V. the two are $2.60 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is CNH Industrial N.V. worth?
The market values CNH Industrial N.V. at about $18.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $11.25; our models calculate a fair value of $8.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about CNH?
Our models span a range for CNH Industrial N.V.: cautious scenario $5.01, base $8.65, optimistic $13.76 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $11.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of CNH?
CNH Industrial N.V. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 46.1 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $8.65 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 20.5 (reported for FY2025: 27.5). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings, 8 of the years ex one-offs: 10.8. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 2.4, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 39.9.
What is the PEG ratio of CNH?
The PEG ratio of CNH Industrial N.V. is 0.38 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH)?
Balance-sheet figures for CNH Industrial N.V. (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 3.9%, debt of 3.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is CNH from its 52-week high?
CNH Industrial N.V. trades at $11.25, about 22% below its 52-week high of $14.40 and 23% above the low of $9.13 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $8.65 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to CNH Industrial N.V.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is CNH Industrial N.V. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $11.25, calculated fair value $8.65 (−23%), Quality Score 53/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of CNH calculated?
We run CNH Industrial N.V. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $8.65, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. CNH Industrial N.V. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $11.25. Our model-based fair value is $8.65, about 23% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with CNH Industrial N.V. right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($5.01 to $13.76). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH) come from?
Earnings per share at CNH Industrial N.V. grew +12.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.9 %, EBIT margin +8.0 %, tax rate +4.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of CNH Industrial N.V.
How large is the market capitalisation of CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH)?
The market capitalisation of CNH Industrial N.V. is $18.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of CNH Industrial N.V. is 1.02 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH)?
Earnings per share at CNH Industrial N.V. are $0.2500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 46.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH)?
The dividend yield of CNH Industrial N.V. is 0.9% (payout 29.7%, on adjusted earnings, reported 40.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH)?
The net margin of CNH Industrial N.V. is 1.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of CNH Industrial N.V. is 3.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of CNH Industrial N.V. is 8.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH)?
The operating margin of CNH Industrial N.V. is 5.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH)?
Revenue at CNH Industrial N.V. is growing +2.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH)?
Earnings per share at CNH Industrial N.V. are growing −35.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH) carry?
The net debt of CNH Industrial N.V. is $23.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 11.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026