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Data-driven stock valuation

Cognor S.A. (COG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Cognor S.A. stock PLN 7.50, price PLN 4.69, upside +60.0%, quality 26 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials PL · ISIN PLCNTSL00014

CS Cognor S.A. logo Thin data Nov 4, 2026

Cognor S.A.

COG · WAR
Cheap, value-trap risk

The stock costs 38% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value 7.50 PLN · Strongly undervalued (38%)
Low debt
Even on cautious assumptions the value is 20% above the price (5.61 PLN).
Mixed vs. peers (5/10)
Quality 26/100
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −17.2 %/yr in PLN)
Loss-making · -4.3% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 16/100 · thin data
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

9.75 PLN 2.92 PLN Fair Value 7.50 PLN Jul 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 2.92 PLN – 9.75 PLN · fair‑value band 5.61 PLN – 11.21 PLN · the 4.69 PLN price screens below the 7.50 PLN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.

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Company profile

Cognor Holding S.A. engages in the production and distribution of steel products in Poland, the Czech Republic, Germany, and internationally.

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The company offers flat bars, round rolled peeled bars, slabs, round and square bars, reinforcing bars, billets with rounded edges for forgings, sections, T-profiles, equal and unequal side angles, metal sheets, conventional polygon ingots, carbon and medium-alloy steels, and high-alloy and special steels, as well as products from non-ferrous metals and non-ferrous metal scrap; C-section products; design of steel composition; and bronze, brass, and copper products.

It also offers transportation, sheet metal fabrication, processing, laboratory analysis, and chemical and metallography laboratory services.

In addition, the company produces rebars, merchant bars, and SQ bars and plates; and sells graphite electrodes and graphite products, ferroalloys, and refractory materials. Further, it offers financial and property development services.

The company was formerly known as Cognor S A and changed its name to Cognor Holding S.A. in November 2016. Cognor Holding S.A. was founded in 1946 and is based in Poraj, Poland. Cognor Holding S.A. is a subsidiary of 4workers Sp. Z O.o.

Stock analysis

Cognor S.A. (COG) currently trades at 4.69 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 7.50 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 38% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 92/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: 5.61 PLN (bear) to 11.21 PLN (bull), the price of 4.69 PLN sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 26/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Cognor S.A. reported revenue of 2.1B PLN in FY2025 versus 2.8B PLN in FY2021, a compound −7.2%/yr. Reported net income was −125M PLN in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 1.1B PLN (≈ $278M) Micro · P/S ratio 0.53 · EPS (TTM) −0.5400 PLN · Net margin −4.3% · Return on equity −7.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.7% · Operating margin 4.8% · Revenue (TTM) 2.2B PLN.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 16 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 60%, COG screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 5.61 PLN Fair Value 7.50 PLN Bull 11.21 PLN
Price 4.69 PLN · Upside +60.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) 2.85 PLN 3.81 PLN 5.69 PLN 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 2.85 PLN 3.81 PLN 5.69 PLN 54

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 26/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 12
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 16
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 7
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 39
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 55
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 57
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 20
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 5
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 43
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 14/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−17.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.3% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.8% (2020) → −7.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Compare Cognor S.A. with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 408 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 26 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +60.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −4.6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −4.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 4.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 9.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.19× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.81× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 0.50× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)47 · sector 36
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)91 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 51

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 ¥6.08 ¥8.07 +33% vs COG
POSCO Holdings PKX $48.60 $44.73 −8% vs COG
Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL ₹182.00 ₹148.06 −19% vs COG
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL ₹1,356 ₹1,029 −24% vs COG
ArcelorMittal S.A MT €54.50 €35.48 −35% vs COG
Reliance, Inc RS $414.04 $211.54 −49% vs COG
Nucor Corporation NUE $245.68 $116.49 −53% vs COG
Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL ₹1,150 ₹516.03 −55% vs COG
Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD $221.90 $89.54 −60% vs COG
Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co 600010 ¥2.03 ¥0.5400 −73% vs COG

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Cognor S.A.: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Cognor S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/COG

Frequently asked questions

Is Cognor S.A. (COG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 7.50 PLN versus a price of 4.69 PLN, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of COG?
Our model-based fair value for Cognor S.A. is 7.50 PLN (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 4.69 PLN.
What is the quality score of COG?
Cognor S.A. has a Quality Score of 26/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Cognor S.A. (COG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 7.50 PLN (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario 5.61 PLN, optimistic scenario 11.21 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Cognor S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 7.50 PLN, about +60% upside versus a price of 4.69 PLN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 5.61 PLN, optimistic scenario 11.21 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Cognor S.A. (COG)?
Cognor S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.2B PLN (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Cognor S.A. (COG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Cognor S.A. it is 7.50 PLN per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of 4.69 PLN. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Cognor S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, COG trades below its calculated fair value: price 4.69 PLN, fair value 7.50 PLN, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of COG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (4.69 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (7.50 PLN). For Cognor S.A. the two are 2.81 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Cognor S.A. worth?
The market values Cognor S.A. at about 1.1B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is 4.69 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 7.50 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about COG?
Our models span a range for Cognor S.A.: cautious scenario 5.61 PLN, base 7.50 PLN, optimistic 11.21 PLN per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price 4.69 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Cognor S.A. (COG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Cognor S.A. (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity −7.5%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 26/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is COG from its 52-week high?
Cognor S.A. trades at 4.69 PLN, about 34% below its 52-week high of 7.08 PLN and 5% above the low of 4.45 PLN (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 7.50 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Cognor S.A.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Cognor S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price 4.69 PLN, calculated fair value 7.50 PLN (+60%), Quality Score 26/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of COG calculated?
We run Cognor S.A. through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 7.50 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Cognor S.A. currently trades 38% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Cognor S.A. (COG)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was 4.69 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 7.50 PLN, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Cognor S.A. right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (26/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (5.61 PLN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (5.61 PLN to 11.21 PLN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Cognor S.A.

How large is the market capitalisation of Cognor S.A. (COG)?
The market capitalisation of Cognor S.A. is 1.1B PLN (≈ $278M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Cognor S.A. (COG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Cognor S.A. is 0.53 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Cognor S.A. (COG)?
Earnings per share at Cognor S.A. are −0.5400 PLN. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Cognor S.A. (COG)?
The net margin of Cognor S.A. is −4.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Cognor S.A. (COG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Cognor S.A. is −7.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Cognor S.A. (COG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Cognor S.A. is 13.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Cognor S.A. (COG)?
The operating margin of Cognor S.A. is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Cognor S.A. (COG)?
Revenue at Cognor S.A. is growing +9.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −17.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Cognor S.A. (COG)?
Earnings per share at Cognor S.A. are growing −91.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Cognor S.A. (COG) generate?
The free cash flow of Cognor S.A. is −216M PLN (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Cognor S.A. (COG) carry?
The net debt of Cognor S.A. is 601M PLN (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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