Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Dollar Tree Inc stock $129, price $147, that is 12.3% below the price, quality 77 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $61.21 – $174.08 · fair‑value band $89.24 – $166.41 · the $147.00 price screens above the $128.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Dollar Tree, Inc. operates retail discount stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands in the United States and Canada.
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The company offers consumable merchandise comprising everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, food, candy, health, personal care products, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise consisting of toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, arts and crafts supplies, and other items; and seasonal goods, including Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise.
The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.
Stock analysis
Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) currently trades at $147.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $128.97, 12% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $151.62 per share, and 7 of the 24 models we run sit above the $147.00 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $55.79, and 17 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $89.24 (bear) to $166.41 (bull), the price of $147.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Dollar Tree Inc reported revenue of $19.4B in FY2026 versus $26.3B in FY2022, a compound −7.3%/yr. Reported net income was $1.3B in FY2026, compounding −0.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $30.3B Large · P/E ratio 17.8 · P/S ratio 1.51 · EPS (TTM) $8.24 · Net margin 8.0% · Return on equity 46.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.1% · Operating margin 6.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 69% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at −12%, DLTR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$89.24Fair Value $128.97Bull$166.41
Price $147.00 · Downside -12.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($6.30 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $248.7M and none bought.
SaleStephanie StahlDirector1,185 shares at $131.47$155,792Sep 4, 2026
SaleRobert AflatooniChief Information Officer2× since Jan 7, 2026: 2,675 shares, avg. $126.35$337,982Aug 31, 2026
SalePaul C HilalDirector2,230,455 shares at $111.31$248.3MJun 24, 2026
SaleBrent A. BeebeChief Merchandising Officer2,200 shares at $124.65$274,230Dec 8, 2025
Plus 12 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.3%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.3% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+6.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.1.9% vs 7.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.9% a year for the price and +3.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Limited durable advantage in discount retail with low entry barriers and price pressure forms the main weakness, while tariff refunds allow reinvestments in pricing and upgrades as a temporary offset.
Main risk: Amazon and Walmart could use AI to identify and quickly private-label Dollar Tree's high-velocity products, squeezing its margins and assortment appeal.
Bull case: Dollar Tree could leverage its store network and multi-price flexibility to offer faster local access and curated value that online platforms and AI-driven rivals struggle to match fully.
Bear case: Persistent China supply risks combined with Temu-style online competition and AI-enabled private labeling could steadily erode Dollar Tree's cost advantages and force further assortment or margin compression.
Dollar Tree received hundreds of millions in tariff refunds that lifted second-quarter earnings and prompted an increase in full-year profit guidance. Management is directing much of that windfall into lower prices, marketing and store upgrades instead of immediate bottom-line gains. Will the reinvestment build lasting customer loyalty and operational strength, or will it simply delay the earnings benefit investors expect?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Discount Stores · 23 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score77 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−12.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)46.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)8.0% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)6.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.65× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Discount Stores median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Dollar Tree Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/DLTR
Frequently asked questions
Is Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $128.97 versus a price of $147.00, about 12% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of DLTR?
Our model-based fair value for Dollar Tree Inc is $128.97 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $147.00.
What is the quality score of DLTR?
Dollar Tree Inc has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $128.97 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $89.24, optimistic scenario $166.41. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Dollar Tree Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $128.97, about 12% lower versus a price of $147.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $89.24, optimistic scenario $166.41. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)?
Dollar Tree Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $20.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Dollar Tree Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +9.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -5.3 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of DLTR use?
Our models discount Dollar Tree Inc at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.72, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Dollar Tree Inc that is +9.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Dollar Tree Inc grew -5.3 % a year. The price currently implies +9.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Dollar Tree Inc (+9.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.61 %: that much free cash flow Dollar Tree Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Dollar Tree Inc it is $128.97 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $147.00. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Dollar Tree Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, DLTR trades above its calculated fair value: price $147.00, fair value $128.97, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of DLTR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($147.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($128.97). For Dollar Tree Inc the two are $18.03 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Dollar Tree Inc worth?
The market values Dollar Tree Inc at about $30.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $147.00; our models calculate a fair value of $128.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about DLTR?
Our models span a range for Dollar Tree Inc: cautious scenario $89.24, base $128.97, optimistic $166.41 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $147.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of DLTR?
Dollar Tree Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.8 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $128.97 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 16.4 (reported for FY2026: 23.6). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 20.1. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 8.1, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 12.8.
What is the PEG ratio of DLTR?
The PEG ratio of Dollar Tree Inc is 1.41 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Dollar Tree Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 46.0%, debt of 0.65 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 77/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is DLTR from its 52-week high?
Dollar Tree Inc trades at $147.00, at its 52-week high of $147.00 and 69% above the low of $86.80 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $128.97 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Dollar Tree Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Walmart Inc, Costco Wholesale Corporation, Target Corporation, Dollarama Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Dollar Tree Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $147.00, calculated fair value $128.97 (−12%), Quality Score 77/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of DLTR calculated?
We run Dollar Tree Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $128.97, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Dollar Tree Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $147.00. Our model-based fair value is $128.97, about 12% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Dollar Tree Inc right now?
A fairly wide model range ($89.24 to $166.41) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Dollar Tree Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)?
The market capitalisation of Dollar Tree Inc is $30.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Dollar Tree Inc is 1.51 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)?
Earnings per share at Dollar Tree Inc are $8.24 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)?
The net margin of Dollar Tree Inc is 8.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Dollar Tree Inc is 46.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Dollar Tree Inc is 9.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)?
The operating margin of Dollar Tree Inc is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)?
Revenue at Dollar Tree Inc is growing +7.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)?
Earnings per share at Dollar Tree Inc are growing +197% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR) carry?
The net debt of Dollar Tree Inc is $3.9B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026