Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Emeco Holdings Ltd stock A$3.12, price A$1.27, upside +145.7%, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.5650 – A$1.45 · fair‑value band A$2.04 – A$3.90 · the A$1.27 price screens below the A$3.12 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 10, 2026.
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Emeco Holdings Limited engages in the provision of surface and underground mining equipment rental, complementary equipment, and mining services in Australia. It rents trucks, excavators, dozers, loaders, and graders.
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The company is also involved in the maintenance, repair, and rebuild of machines and components for heavy earthmoving equipment; mechanical and boilermaker repair services; and sandblasting and painting services.
In addition, it offers fabrication and boiler making; and field services and labour hire. Emeco Holdings Limited was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL) currently trades at A$1.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$3.12, implying the stock looks roughly 59% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$3.32 per share, and 22 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$1.27 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$1.02, and 2 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$2.04 (bear) to A$3.90 (bull), the price of A$1.27 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2020: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2020.
Emeco Holdings Ltd reported revenue of A$793M in FY2026 versus A$754M in FY2022, a compound +1.3%/yr. Reported net income was A$76.7M in FY2026, compounding +4.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$685M (≈ $468M) Small · P/E ratio 8.5 · P/S ratio 0.86 · EPS (TTM) A$0.1500 · Net margin 9.6% · Return on equity 10.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin 17.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at 146%, EHL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$2.04Fair Value A$3.12BullA$3.90
Price A$1.27 · Upside +145.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0555 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2020: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2020.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+2.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Per share before 2020divided by the spin-off factor 1.0612
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 16%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.6%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.3% a year for the price and −0.3% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Rental & Leasing Services · 87 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$3.12 versus a price of A$1.27, about +146% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of EHL?
Our model-based fair value for Emeco Holdings Ltd is A$3.12 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.27.
What is the quality score of EHL?
Emeco Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$3.12 (as of Nov 10, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$2.04, optimistic scenario A$3.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Emeco Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$3.12, about +146% upside versus a price of A$1.27 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$2.04, optimistic scenario A$3.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL)?
Emeco Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$797M (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What growth is priced into Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Emeco Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -4.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.0 % per year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EHL use?
Our models discount Emeco Holdings Ltd at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.51, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Emeco Holdings Ltd that is -4.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Emeco Holdings Ltd grew +5.0 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -4.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Emeco Holdings Ltd (-4.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.39 %: that much free cash flow Emeco Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Emeco Holdings Ltd it is A$3.12 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of A$1.27. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Emeco Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, EHL trades below its calculated fair value: price A$1.27, fair value A$3.12, a gap of about +146% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EHL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.27); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$3.12). For Emeco Holdings Ltd the two are A$1.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Emeco Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Emeco Holdings Ltd at about A$685M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is A$1.27; our models calculate a fair value of A$3.12 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EHL?
Our models span a range for Emeco Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario A$2.04, base A$3.12, optimistic A$3.90 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price A$1.27). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of EHL?
Emeco Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.5 (as of Nov 10, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$3.12 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2019 to 2026), reported earnings: 7.2. Other multiples: PEG 0.4, P/B 0.9, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 2.8.
What is the PEG ratio of EHL?
The PEG ratio of Emeco Holdings Ltd is 0.39 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 10, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Emeco Holdings Ltd (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity 10.2%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EHL from its 52-week high?
Emeco Holdings Ltd trades at A$1.27, about 12% below its 52-week high of A$1.45 and 34% above the low of A$0.9450 (as of Nov 12, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$3.12 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Emeco Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Rentals, Inc, Sunbelt Rentals Holdings, AerCap Holdings, U-Haul Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Emeco Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price A$1.27, calculated fair value A$3.12 (+146%), Quality Score 49/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EHL calculated?
We run Emeco Holdings Ltd through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of A$3.12 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0% above its aggregate fair value. Emeco Holdings Ltd currently trades 59% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL)?
The closing price on Nov 12, 2026 was A$1.27. Our model-based fair value is A$3.12, about +146% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Emeco Holdings Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (49/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$2.04). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (A$2.04 to A$3.90) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Emeco Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL)?
The market capitalisation of Emeco Holdings Ltd is A$685M (≈ $468M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Emeco Holdings Ltd is 0.86 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL)?
Earnings per share at Emeco Holdings Ltd are A$0.1500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL)?
The net margin of Emeco Holdings Ltd is 9.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Emeco Holdings Ltd is 10.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Emeco Holdings Ltd is 9.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL)?
The operating margin of Emeco Holdings Ltd is 17.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL)?
Revenue at Emeco Holdings Ltd is growing −6.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL)?
Earnings per share at Emeco Holdings Ltd are growing −9.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Emeco Holdings Ltd (EHL) carry?
The net debt of Emeco Holdings Ltd is A$127M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 10, 2026