PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P stock IDR 219, price IDR 402, that is 45.4% below the price, quality 33 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
51‑month range 185.47 IDR – 2,572 IDR · fair‑value band 129.45 IDR – 406.96 IDR · the 402.00 IDR price screens above the 219.39 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya Purnamasari Tbk engages in the sea transportation business in Indonesia and internationally. The company operates through Owned Vessel, Chartered Vessel, and Other service segments.
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It offers integrated solutions through modern shipyard facilities, shipbuilding, repairs, and other supporting infrastructure; and dry bulk services.
The company also provides logistics services, which include warehousing, shorebase, transportation, heavy equipment, terminal management, and cargo documentation; engineering, procurement, and construction services to support onshore and offshore infrastructure development; and training centers, such as DP and pilotage training, and management and skill development services.
It owns and operates approximately 100 units of various fleets, such as crew boats, anchor handling tug supply vessels, platform support and utility vessels, and tug boat and bulk carier. PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya Purnamasari Tbk was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Surabaya, Indonesia.
PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya Purnamasari Tbk is a subsidiary of Pt Kreasi Cipta Timur.
Stock analysis
PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI) currently trades at 402.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 219.39 IDR, 45% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 457.79 IDR per share, and 6 of the 26 models we run sit above the 402.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 115.66 IDR, and 20 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 129.45 IDR (bear) to 406.96 IDR (bull), the price of 402.00 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P reported revenue of 1.0T IDR in FY2025 versus 541B IDR in FY2021, a compound +17.0%/yr. Reported net income was 213B IDR in FY2025, compounding +18.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.8T IDR (≈ $213M) Micro · P/E ratio 26.7 · P/S ratio 4.25 · EPS (TTM) 15.07 IDR · Dividend yield 4.2% · Net margin 14.8% · Return on equity 5.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.4% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 84% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at −45%, ELPI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear129.45 IDRFair Value 219.39 IDRBull406.96 IDR
Price 402.00 IDR · Downside -45.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF47.40 IDR81.17 IDR130.19 IDR79
Growth DCF45.96 IDR74.11 IDR111.53 IDR77
Residual Income200.11 IDR206.24 IDR222.98 IDR76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF47.40 IDR81.17 IDR130.19 IDR79
Owner Earnings40.44 IDR69.89 IDR112.65 IDR75
5Y Revenue Exit91.43 IDR180.65 IDR305.86 IDR70
5Y EBITDA Exit186.14 IDR381.25 IDR635.51 IDR72
5Y P/E Exit201.56 IDR413.93 IDR666.15 IDR68
10Y Revenue Exit67.33 IDR135.74 IDR246.73 IDR63
10Y EBITDA Exit122.71 IDR258.10 IDR478.78 IDR65
10Y P/E Exit131.20 IDR278.03 IDR500.35 IDR61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd152.29 IDR780.00 IDR1,078 IDR64
Lynch FV212.58 IDR303.68 IDR394.79 IDR61
PEG = 1.0212.58 IDR303.68 IDR394.79 IDR57
EPV106.28 IDR118.91 IDR129.03 IDR74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM72.92 IDR117.67 IDR148.64 IDR69
DDM Multi-Stage72.92 IDR113.65 IDR126.98 IDR67
Multiples
P/E Multiple352.73 IDR470.31 IDR587.88 IDR63
P/S Multiple159.66 IDR212.87 IDR266.09 IDR58
P/B Multiple915.07 IDR1,220 IDR1,525 IDR55
EV/EBIT225.34 IDR305.42 IDR385.50 IDR66
EV/EBITDA308.55 IDR416.37 IDR524.18 IDR67
EV/Revenue119.21 IDR176.69 IDR234.16 IDR53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)135.57 IDR181.66 IDR271.13 IDR54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF45.96 IDR74.11 IDR111.53 IDR77
Rev-Margin DCF91.43 IDR176.83 IDR290.47 IDR70
Economic Profit
Residual Income200.11 IDR206.24 IDR222.98 IDR76
ROIC Compounder106.28 IDR118.91 IDR129.03 IDR72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E320.45 IDR457.79 IDR595.13 IDR67
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−15.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
’19
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+11.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 18%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+50.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +46.9% a year for the price.
Compare PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Marine Shipping · 220 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−45.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.0% · Below median
Return on assets6.3% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)14.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)8.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−29.2% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)4.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ELPI
Frequently asked questions
Is PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 219.39 IDR versus a price of 402.00 IDR, about 45% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ELPI?
Our model-based fair value for PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P is 219.39 IDR (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 402.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of ELPI?
PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 219.39 IDR (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 129.45 IDR, optimistic scenario 406.96 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 219.39 IDR, about 45% lower versus a price of 402.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 129.45 IDR, optimistic scenario 406.96 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 900B IDR (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P pay a dividend?
PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P currently shows a dividend yield of 4.23% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI) and when is the ex-dividend date?
PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P pays a dividend of 17.00 IDR per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Mar 25, 2026. The payout ratio is 113% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.23 times. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What growth is priced into PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P would have to grow free cash flow by +50.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.1 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ELPI use?
Our models discount PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.50, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P that is +50.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P grew +16.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +50.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (+50.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.05 %: that much free cash flow PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P it is 219.39 IDR per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of 402.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, ELPI trades above its calculated fair value: price 402.00 IDR, fair value 219.39 IDR, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ELPI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (402.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (219.39 IDR). For PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P the two are 182.62 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P worth?
The market values PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P at about 3.8T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is 402.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 219.39 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ELPI?
Our models span a range for PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P: cautious scenario 129.45 IDR, base 219.39 IDR, optimistic 406.96 IDR per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price 402.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ELPI?
PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.7 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 219.39 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 4.3, EV/EBITDA 16.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
Balance-sheet figures for PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 5.0%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 33/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ELPI from its 52-week high?
PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P trades at 402.00 IDR, about 84% below its 52-week high of 2,572 IDR and at the low of 400.00 IDR (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 219.39 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft,, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price 402.00 IDR, calculated fair value 219.39 IDR (−45%), Quality Score 33/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ELPI calculated?
We run PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 219.39 IDR builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 402.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 219.39 IDR, about 45% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P right now?
Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (129.45 IDR to 406.96 IDR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P
How large is the market capitalisation of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
The market capitalisation of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P is 3.8T IDR (≈ $213M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P is 4.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
Earnings per share at PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P are 15.07 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
The dividend yield of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P is 4.2% (payout 113%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
The net margin of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P is 14.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P is 5.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P is 7.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
The operating margin of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
Revenue at PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P is growing −29.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
Earnings per share at PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P are growing −63.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI) carry?
The net debt of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P is 142B IDR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 6, 2026