PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P IDR 257, price IDR 625, upside -58.8%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
50‑month range 185.47 IDR – 2,572 IDR · fair‑value band 133.99 IDR – 418.47 IDR · the 625.00 IDR price screens above the 257.37 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya Purnamasari Tbk engages in the sea transportation business in Indonesia and internationally. The company operates through Owned Vessel, Chartered Vessel, and Other service segments.
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PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya Purnamasari Tbk engages in the sea transportation business in Indonesia and internationally. The company operates through Owned Vessel, Chartered Vessel, and Other service segments. It offers integrated solutions through modern shipyard facilities, shipbuilding, repairs, and other supporting infrastructure; and dry bulk services. The company also provides logistics services, which include warehousing, shorebase, transportation, heavy equipment, terminal management, and cargo documentation; engineering, procurement, and construction services to support onshore and offshore infrastructure development; and training centers, such as DP and pilotage training, and management and skill development services. It owns and operates approximately 100 units of various fleets, such as crew boats, anchor handling tug supply vessels, platform support and utility vessels, and tug boat and bulk carier. PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya Purnamasari Tbk was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Surabaya, Indonesia. PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya Purnamasari Tbk is a subsidiary of Pt Kreasi Cipta Timur.
Stock analysis
PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI) currently trades at 625.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 257.37 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 142.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 402.77 IDR per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the 625.00 IDR price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 88.73 IDR, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 133.99 IDR (bear) to 418.47 IDR (bull), the price of 625.00 IDR sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P reported revenue of 1.0T IDR in FY2025 versus 541B IDR in FY2021, a compound +17.0%/yr. Reported net income was 213B IDR in FY2025, compounding +18.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 12.0T IDR (≈ $1.2B) · P/E ratio 35.4 · P/S ratio 7.45 · EPS (TTM) 17.66 IDR · Net margin 21.0% · Return on equity 7.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.4% · Operating margin 12.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 76% below its 52-week high and 82% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 61% fair-value upside, at −59%, ELPI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 133.99 IDRFair Value 257.37 IDRBull 418.47 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (12.92 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−15.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.5%
’19
’20
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’23
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+7.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.27% → 18%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+52.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +48.6% a year for the price.
Compare PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Marine Shipping · 236 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside−59% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)19% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)12% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)35.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B4.65× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)12.05× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF0.0× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA41.4× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 36
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 23
PAST (return on equity)30· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)95· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ELPI
Frequently asked questions
Is PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 257.37 IDR versus a price of 625.00 IDR, about −59% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ELPI?
Our model-based fair value for PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P is 257.37 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 625.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of ELPI?
PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 257.37 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 133.99 IDR, optimistic scenario 418.47 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 257.37 IDR, about −59% upside versus a price of 625.00 IDR (overvalued). Cautious scenario 133.99 IDR, optimistic scenario 418.47 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 997B IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P would have to grow free cash flow by +52.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +16.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ELPI use?
Our models discount PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.34, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P that is +52.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P grew +16.1 % a year. The price currently implies +52.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (+52.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.80 %: that much free cash flow PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P it is 257.37 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 625.00 IDR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ELPI trades above its calculated fair value: price 625.00 IDR, fair value 257.37 IDR, a gap of about −59% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ELPI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (625.00 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (257.37 IDR). For PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P the two are 367.63 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P worth?
The market values PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P at about 12.0T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 625.00 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 257.37 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ELPI?
Our models span a range for PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P: cautious scenario 133.99 IDR, base 257.37 IDR, optimistic 418.47 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 625.00 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ELPI?
PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 257.37 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.7, P/S 12.1, EV/EBITDA 41.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
Balance-sheet figures for PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.6%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ELPI from its 52-week high?
PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P trades at 625.00 IDR, about 76% below its 52-week high of 2,572 IDR and 82% above the low of 344.20 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 257.37 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft,, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 625.00 IDR, calculated fair value 257.37 IDR (−59%), Quality Score 45/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ELPI calculated?
We run PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 257.37 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 625.00 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 257.37 IDR, about −59% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (418.47 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (133.99 IDR to 418.47 IDR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P
How large is the market capitalisation of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
The market capitalisation of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P is 12.0T IDR (≈ $1.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P is 7.45 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
Earnings per share at PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P are 17.66 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
The net margin of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P is 21.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P is 7.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
The operating margin of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
Revenue at PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P is growing −7.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI)?
Earnings per share at PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P are growing −48.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P (ELPI) carry?
The net debt of PT Pelayaran Nasional Ekalya P is 142B IDR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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