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ExpertAi SpA (EXAI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of ExpertAi SpA stock €0.28, price €1.55, that is 81.9% below the price, quality 39 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 10 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Technology IT · ISIN IT0004496029

ES ExpertAi SpA logo Thin data Nov 8, 2026

ExpertAi SpA

EXAI · MI
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 82% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Revenue last quarter +33% vs. a year ago.
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +10.2 %/yr in EUR)
Fair value €0.2805 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 39/100
Loss-making · -5.7% net margin (TTM)
Trails peers (1/11)
Narrow moat 16/100
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€2.86 €0.4277 Fair Value €0.2805 Sep 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €0.4277 – €2.86 · fair‑value band €0.1615 – €0.4420 · the €1.55 price screens above the €0.2805 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Expert.ai S.p.A., an artificial intelligence (AI) platform company, develops and sells cognitive computing software products based on AI algorithms to read and understand written language worldwide.

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The company offers expert.ai Platform that captures the strategic value of language data; expert.ai Answers, a customer support automation software that allows human like interaction between customers and internal staff, using the language of business and users; expert.ai Discover, a text analytics, and extraction and categorization software; expert.ai for Insurance that automate insurance claims management with natural language understanding; and expert.ai for Life Sciences to mimic the human like comprehension of scientific content, such as publications, patents, clinical trials, or medical reports.

It serves the banking and insurance, public administration, life science and pharma, oil and gas, media and publishing, and telecom and utilities industries, as well as defense, and intelligence and law enforcement industries.

Expert.ai S.p.A. has a strategic partnership agreement with WealthIntel Inc. to facilitate innovations in natural language and text analytics. The company was formerly known as Expert System S.p.A. and changed its name to Expert.ai S.p.A. in May 2021.

Expert.ai S.p.A. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Modena, Italy.

Stock analysis

ExpertAi SpA (EXAI) currently trades at €1.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €0.2805, 82% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €0.5850 per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the €1.55 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €0.1400, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: €0.1615 (bear) to €0.4420 (bull), the price of €1.55 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

ExpertAi SpA reported revenue of €45.9M in FY2025 versus €28.7M in FY2021, a compound +12.5%/yr. Reported net income was −€5.7M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap €175M Micro · P/S ratio 3.94 · EPS (TTM) €−0.0800 · Net margin −12.4% · Return on equity −8.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −12.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin −17.1% · Revenue (TTM) €45.6M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 16 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at −82%, EXAI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €0.1615 Fair Value €0.2805 Bull €0.4420
Price €1.55 · Downside -81.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF €0.1900 €0.2900 €0.4300 80
Growth DCF €0.1800 €0.2700 €0.3700 79
5Y EBITDA Exit €0.4100 €0.8000 €1.30 73
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €0.1900 €0.2900 €0.4300 80
5Y Revenue Exit €0.1900 €0.3300 €0.5200 71
5Y EBITDA Exit €0.4100 €0.8000 €1.30 73
10Y Revenue Exit €0.1800 €0.2900 €0.4500 66
10Y EBITDA Exit €0.2900 €0.5300 €0.9200 66
Multiples
EV/EBITDA €0.6700 €0.9100 €1.16 67
EV/Revenue €0.1700 €0.2600 €0.3500 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €0.1000 €0.1400 €0.2100 53
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €0.1800 €0.2700 €0.3700 79
Rev-Margin DCF €0.1900 €0.3300 €0.5100 71

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 17
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 80
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 40
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 52
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 71
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 48
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 39
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 35
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 53/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+133.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.9% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−18.6% (2020) → −7.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+52.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +48.8% a year for the price.

EXAI screens overvalued: fair value 82% below the price. Compare with SAP SE →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 723 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −81.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −6.3% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) −5.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) −17.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 33.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.29× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.99× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 3.84× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 63.8× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 40
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 9
HEALTH (low debt)85 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 28

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Adobe Inc ADBE $236.70 $463.72 +96% vs EXAI
Salesforce, Inc CRM $213.48 $342.73 +61% vs EXAI
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER $70.05 $101.28 +45% vs EXAI
Intuit Inc INTU $340.44 $459.14 +35% vs EXAI
ServiceNow, Inc NOW $99.61 $112.17 +13% vs EXAI
SAP SE SAP €209.95 €173.59 −17% vs EXAI
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $331.64 $225.48 −32% vs EXAI
Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP $305.44 $192.37 −37% vs EXAI
Shopify Inc SHOP $146.61 $64.96 −56% vs EXAI
Snowflake Inc SNOW $295.76 $73.81 −75% vs EXAI

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ExpertAi SpA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EXAI

Frequently asked questions

Is ExpertAi SpA (EXAI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €0.2805 versus a price of €1.55, about 82% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EXAI?
Our model-based fair value for ExpertAi SpA is €0.2805 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €1.55.
What is the quality score of EXAI?
ExpertAi SpA has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €0.2805 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario €0.1615, optimistic scenario €0.4420. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ExpertAi SpA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €0.2805, about 82% lower versus a price of €1.55 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €0.1615, optimistic scenario €0.4420. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
ExpertAi SpA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €45.6M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What growth is priced into ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ExpertAi SpA would have to grow free cash flow by +52.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 17.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.3 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EXAI use?
Our models discount ExpertAi SpA at 17.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.55, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ExpertAi SpA that is +52.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (17.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ExpertAi SpA (EXAI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ExpertAi SpA grew +10.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +52.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ExpertAi SpA (EXAI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ExpertAi SpA (+52.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.57 %: that much free cash flow ExpertAi SpA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (17.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ExpertAi SpA it is €0.2805 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of €1.55. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is ExpertAi SpA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, EXAI trades above its calculated fair value: price €1.55, fair value €0.2805, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EXAI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€1.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€0.2805). For ExpertAi SpA the two are €1.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ExpertAi SpA worth?
The market values ExpertAi SpA at about €175M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is €1.55; our models calculate a fair value of €0.2805 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EXAI?
Our models span a range for ExpertAi SpA: cautious scenario €0.1615, base €0.2805, optimistic €0.4420 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price €1.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
Balance-sheet figures for ExpertAi SpA (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −8.0%, debt of 0.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 39/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EXAI from its 52-week high?
ExpertAi SpA trades at €1.55, about 19% below its 52-week high of €1.92 and 9% above the low of €1.42 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €0.2805 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ExpertAi SpA?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ExpertAi SpA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price €1.55, calculated fair value €0.2805 (−82%), Quality Score 39/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EXAI calculated?
We run ExpertAi SpA through 10 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €0.2805 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. ExpertAi SpA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was €1.55. Our model-based fair value is €0.2805, about 82% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ExpertAi SpA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€0.4420). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (€0.1615 to €0.4420). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of ExpertAi SpA

How large is the market capitalisation of ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
The market capitalisation of ExpertAi SpA is €175M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ExpertAi SpA is 3.94 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
Earnings per share at ExpertAi SpA are €−0.0800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
The net margin of ExpertAi SpA is −12.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ExpertAi SpA is −8.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ExpertAi SpA is −12.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
The operating margin of ExpertAi SpA is −17.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
Revenue at ExpertAi SpA is growing +33.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +28.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does ExpertAi SpA (EXAI) carry?
The net debt of ExpertAi SpA is €6.3M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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