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ExpertAi SpA (EXAI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of ExpertAi SpA €0.28, price €1.60, upside -82.5%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Technology · IT · ISIN IT0004496029

ES ExpertAi SpA logo Thin data Sep 27, 2026

ExpertAi SpA

EXAI · MI

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value €0.2805 · Strongly overvalued (−82.5%)
!Quality 40/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +10.2 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -12.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/11)
!Narrow moat 23/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€3.05 €0.4277 Fair Value €0.2805 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €0.4277 – €3.05 · fair‑value band €0.1615 – €0.4335 · the €1.60 price screens above the €0.2805 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.

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Company profile

Expert.ai S.p.A., an artificial intelligence (AI) platform company, develops and sells cognitive computing software products based on AI algorithms to read and understand written language worldwide.

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Expert.ai S.p.A., an artificial intelligence (AI) platform company, develops and sells cognitive computing software products based on AI algorithms to read and understand written language worldwide. The company offers expert.ai Platform that captures the strategic value of language data; expert.ai Answers, a customer support automation software that allows human like interaction between customers and internal staff, using the language of business and users; expert.ai Discover, a text analytics, and extraction and categorization software; expert.ai for Insurance that automate insurance claims management with natural language understanding; and expert.ai for Life Sciences to mimic the human like comprehension of scientific content, such as publications, patents, clinical trials, or medical reports. It serves the banking and insurance, public administration, life science and pharma, oil and gas, media and publishing, and telecom and utilities industries, as well as defense, and intelligence and law enforcement industries. Expert.ai S.p.A. has a strategic partnership agreement with WealthIntel Inc. to facilitate innovations in natural language and text analytics. The company was formerly known as Expert System S.p.A. and changed its name to Expert.ai S.p.A. in May 2021. Expert.ai S.p.A. was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Modena, Italy.

Stock analysis

ExpertAi SpA (EXAI) currently trades at €1.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €0.2805, implying the stock looks roughly 470.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €0.4500 per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the €1.60 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €0.2600, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: €0.1615 (bear) to €0.4335 (bull), the price of €1.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

ExpertAi SpA reported revenue of €45.9M in FY2025 versus €28.7M in FY2021, a compound +12.5%/yr. Reported net income was −€5.7M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap €181M · P/S ratio 4.05 · EPS (TTM) €−0.0500 · Net margin −12.4% · Return on equity −15.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −12.1% · Operating margin 9.5% · Revenue (TTM) €45.9M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −82%, EXAI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €0.1615 Fair Value €0.2805 Bull €0.4335
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €0.2600 €0.4500 €0.7300 78
Growth DCF €0.2600 €0.4100 €0.6300 77
5Y EBITDA Exit €0.5000 €0.9600 €1.57 73
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €0.2600 €0.4500 €0.7300 78
5Y Revenue Exit €0.2300 €0.3900 €0.6200 71
5Y EBITDA Exit €0.5000 €0.9600 €1.57 73
10Y Revenue Exit €0.2300 €0.3800 €0.6200 65
10Y EBITDA Exit €0.3900 €0.7500 €1.31 66
Multiples
EV/EBITDA €0.7100 €0.9500 €1.20 67
EV/Revenue €0.2100 €0.3000 €0.4000 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €0.1900 €0.2600 €0.3900 53
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €0.2600 €0.4100 €0.6300 77
Rev-Margin DCF €0.2300 €0.3900 €0.6100 71

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 40/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36

Profitability 17
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 80
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 40
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 71
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 45
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 32
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 53/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+133.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.9% a year
Revenue growth 15 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.8%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−18.6% (2020) → −7.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+52.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +49.6% a year for the price.

EXAI screens 470% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 708 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −82.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −2.8% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −12.4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 9.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 68.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.29× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

P/B 4.69× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 4.49× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 75.0× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 36
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)85 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 31

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
SAP SE SAP €185.92 €172.46 −7%
Salesforce, Inc CRM $234.02 $342.73 +46%
Shopify Inc SHOP $142.25 $64.36 −55%
ServiceNow, Inc NOW $135.62 $149.18 +10%
Uber Technologies, Inc UBER $69.62 $103.69 +49%
Snowflake Inc SNOW $335.94 $74.36 −78%
Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP $263.67 $150.01 −43%
Adobe Inc ADBE $235.47 $454.04 +93%
Datadog, Inc DDOG $268.13 $32.52 −88%
Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS $326.13 $225.48 −31%

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ExpertAi SpA · Fair Value
€0.2805 −470%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ExpertAi SpA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EXAI

Frequently asked questions

Is ExpertAi SpA (EXAI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €0.2805 versus a price of €1.60, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EXAI?
Our model-based fair value for ExpertAi SpA is €0.2805 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €1.60.
What is the quality score of EXAI?
ExpertAi SpA has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €0.2805 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario €0.1615, optimistic scenario €0.4335. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ExpertAi SpA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €0.2805, about −82% upside versus a price of €1.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €0.1615, optimistic scenario €0.4335. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
ExpertAi SpA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €45.9M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ExpertAi SpA would have to grow free cash flow by +52.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 17.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.3 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of EXAI use?
Our models discount ExpertAi SpA at 17.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.64, country premium for Italy. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ExpertAi SpA that is +52.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (17.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ExpertAi SpA (EXAI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ExpertAi SpA grew +10.3 % a year. The price currently implies +52.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ExpertAi SpA (EXAI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ExpertAi SpA (+52.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.52 %: that much free cash flow ExpertAi SpA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (17.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ExpertAi SpA it is €0.2805 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of €1.60. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ExpertAi SpA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, EXAI trades above its calculated fair value: price €1.60, fair value €0.2805, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EXAI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€1.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€0.2805). For ExpertAi SpA the two are €1.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ExpertAi SpA worth?
The market values ExpertAi SpA at about €181M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is €1.60; our models calculate a fair value of €0.2805 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EXAI?
Our models span a range for ExpertAi SpA: cautious scenario €0.1615, base €0.2805, optimistic €0.4335 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price €1.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
Balance-sheet figures for ExpertAi SpA (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −15.0%, debt of 0.29 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EXAI from its 52-week high?
ExpertAi SpA trades at €1.60, about 17% below its 52-week high of €1.92 and 13% above the low of €1.42 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €0.2805 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ExpertAi SpA?
From the same area (Technology) we also value SAP SE, Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ExpertAi SpA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price €1.60, calculated fair value €0.2805 (−82%), Quality Score 40/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EXAI calculated?
We run ExpertAi SpA through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €0.2805, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.2 % above its aggregate fair value. ExpertAi SpA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was €1.60. Our model-based fair value is €0.2805, about −82% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ExpertAi SpA right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€0.4335). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (€0.1615 to €0.4335). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of ExpertAi SpA

How large is the market capitalisation of ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
The market capitalisation of ExpertAi SpA is €181M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ExpertAi SpA is 4.05 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
Earnings per share at ExpertAi SpA are €−0.0500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
The net margin of ExpertAi SpA is −12.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ExpertAi SpA is −15.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ExpertAi SpA is −12.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
The operating margin of ExpertAi SpA is 9.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ExpertAi SpA (EXAI)?
Revenue at ExpertAi SpA is growing +68.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +28.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does ExpertAi SpA (EXAI) carry?
The net debt of ExpertAi SpA is €6.3M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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