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Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Exodus Movement, Inc. stock $2.66, price $4.07, that is 34.6% below the price, quality 42 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Technology US

EM Exodus Movement, Inc. logo Thin data Nov 8, 2026

Exodus Movement, Inc.

EXOD · US
Expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 35% below what the stock costs today.

Quality 42/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +41.7 %/yr in USD)
Insiders sold $330,350 (6M)
Fair value $2.66 · Overvalued
Loss-making · -79.9% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/9)
Narrow moat 12/100 · thin data
Thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$89.30 $1.00 Fair Value $2.66 Sep 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.00 – $89.30 · fair‑value band $1.76 – $3.33 · the $4.07 price screens above the $2.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Exodus Movement, Inc. operates as a financial technology for blockchain and digital asset industry in the United States. The company develops Exodus Platform, an un-hosted self-custodial digital asset wallet that provides access to the world of decentralized finance and the power of blockchain.

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It also offers fiat on and off-ramps to facilitate an exchange for users to buy digital assets with fiat currency through bank transfer, credit or debit card, and Apple Pay; and staking services, which allows users to stake digital assets in their Exodus wallets.

The company offers its products directly through the Exodus Platform, including storing, sending, and receiving digital assets through the wallet functionality. Exodus Movement, Inc. was founded in 2015 and is based in Omaha, Nebraska.

Stock analysis

Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) currently trades at $4.07, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.66, 35% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $1.76 (bear) to $3.33 (bull), the price of $4.07 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Exodus Movement, Inc. reported revenue of $122M in FY2025 versus $95.8M in FY2021, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$11.4M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $170M Micro · P/E ex one-offs 15.7 · P/S ratio 1.56 · EPS (TTM) $−2.96 · Net margin −79.9% · Return on equity −36.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin −46.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 12 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 81% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −35%, EXOD screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.76 Fair Value $2.66 Bull $3.33
Price $4.07 · Downside -34.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) $1.76 $2.66 $3.33 52
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.76 $2.66 $3.33 52

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 42/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 14
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 20
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 33
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 77
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 33
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 8
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 0
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 71
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $330,350 and none bought.

  • SaleJames GernetzkeChief Financial Officer4× since Aug 17, 2026: 21,936 shares, avg. $6.53$143,183Nov 3, 2026
  • SaleMargaret KnightDirector7× since Apr 1, 2026: 945 shares, avg. $6.51$6,151Oct 1, 2026
  • SaleMatias OliveraChief Technology Officer4× since Aug 19, 2026: 22,680 shares, avg. $8.07$182,914Aug 28, 2026

Plus 9 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+41.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+57.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
20.7% (2020) → −6.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

EXOD screens overvalued: fair value 35% below the price. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 346 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 42 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −34.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −4.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −79.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −46.2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 1.6% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.69× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 1.56× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 25
FUTURE (revenue growth)8 · sector 60
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 31

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Microsoft Corporation MSFT $530.61 $583.67 +10% vs EXOD
Fortinet, Inc FTNT $118.84 $130.72 +10% vs EXOD
Oracle Corporation ORCL $116.10 $111.97 −4% vs EXOD
NetApp, Inc NTAP $169.19 $156.80 −7% vs EXOD
Block, Inc XYZ $85.48 $76.43 −11% vs EXOD
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $450.46 $288.23 −36% vs EXOD
Zscaler, Inc ZS $197.66 $101.45 −49% vs EXOD
Palantir Technologies Inc PLTR $160.38 $42.20 −74% vs EXOD
CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD $216.90 $37.97 −82% vs EXOD
Palo Alto Networks, Inc PANW $313.84 $39.54 −87% vs EXOD

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Exodus Movement, Inc.: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Exodus Movement, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EXOD

Frequently asked questions

Is Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.66 versus a price of $4.07, about 35% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EXOD?
Our model-based fair value for Exodus Movement, Inc. is $2.66 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.07.
What is the quality score of EXOD?
Exodus Movement, Inc. has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.66 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.76, optimistic scenario $3.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Exodus Movement, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.66, about 35% lower versus a price of $4.07 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.76, optimistic scenario $3.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
Exodus Movement, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $109M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Exodus Movement, Inc. it is $2.66 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $4.07. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Exodus Movement, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, EXOD trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.07, fair value $2.66, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EXOD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.07); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.66). For Exodus Movement, Inc. the two are $1.41 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Exodus Movement, Inc. worth?
The market values Exodus Movement, Inc. at about $170M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $4.07; our models calculate a fair value of $2.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EXOD?
Our models span a range for Exodus Movement, Inc.: cautious scenario $1.76, base $2.66, optimistic $3.33 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $4.07). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Exodus Movement, Inc. (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −36.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 42/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EXOD from its 52-week high?
Exodus Movement, Inc. trades at $4.07, about 81% below its 52-week high of $21.86 and 4% above the low of $3.92 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Exodus Movement, Inc.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Exodus Movement, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $4.07, calculated fair value $2.66 (−35%), Quality Score 42/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EXOD calculated?
We run Exodus Movement, Inc. through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $2.66 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Exodus Movement, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $4.07. Our model-based fair value is $2.66, about 35% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Exodus Movement, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.33). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($1.76 to $3.33) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Exodus Movement, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
The market capitalisation of Exodus Movement, Inc. is $170M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) excluding one-off items?
Excluding one-off items, the price-to-earnings ratio of Exodus Movement, Inc. is 15.7 (fiscal year 2025, the reported result was a loss).
What is the P/S ratio of Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Exodus Movement, Inc. is 1.56 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
Earnings per share at Exodus Movement, Inc. are $−2.96. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
The net margin of Exodus Movement, Inc. is −79.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Exodus Movement, Inc. is −36.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Exodus Movement, Inc. is 5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
The operating margin of Exodus Movement, Inc. is −46.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
Revenue at Exodus Movement, Inc. is growing +1.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +33.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
Earnings per share at Exodus Movement, Inc. are growing +19.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) generate?
The free cash flow of Exodus Movement, Inc. is −$25.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) hold?
Exodus Movement, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $4.9M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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