Exodus Movement, Inc (EXOD) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $179M
Exodus Movement, Inc
EXOD · US
Fair value as of: Jul 7, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 34 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 7, 2026, revised from $2.48 to $2.76 (+11.3%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +7.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 50% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($1.82 to $3.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range $1.00 – $89.30 · fair‑value band $1.82 – $3.44 · the $5.49 price screens above the $2.76 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 7, 2026.
Analysis
Exodus Movement, Inc (EXOD) currently trades at $5.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.76, implying the stock looks roughly 49.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Exodus Movement, Inc generated revenue of $108M at a net margin of -28.3%. Revenue declined 36.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -13.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $4.9M. Fundamentals as of Jul 7, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.82 (bear case) to $3.44 (bull case); at $5.49, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -50% fair-value upside, at -50%, EXOD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 7, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 2
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Exodus Movement, Inc. operates as a financial technology for blockchain and digital asset industry in the United States. The company develops Exodus Platform, an un-hosted self-custodial digital asset wallet that provides access to the world of decentralized finance and the power of blockchain.
Full company description
Exodus Movement, Inc. operates as a financial technology for blockchain and digital asset industry in the United States. The company develops Exodus Platform, an un-hosted self-custodial digital asset wallet that provides access to the world of decentralized finance and the power of blockchain. It also offers fiat on and off-ramps to facilitate an exchange for users to buy digital assets with fiat currency through bank transfer, credit or debit card, and Apple Pay; and staking services, which allows users to stake digital assets in their Exodus wallets. The company offers its products directly through the Exodus Platform, including storing, sending, and receiving digital assets through the wallet functionality. Exodus Movement, Inc. was founded in 2015 and is based in Omaha, Nebraska.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Exodus Movement, Inc reported revenue of $122M in FY2025 versus $95.8M in FY2021, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$11.4M in FY2025.
EXOD screens 50% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →
Peer Group
Software - Infrastructure · 370 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Infrastructure stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 7, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Microsoft Corporation MSFT | $384.00 | $274.17 | -29% |
| Oracle Corporation ORAC | C$9.08 | C$2.94 | -68% |
| Fortinet, Inc FTNT | $160.78 | $44.96 | -72% |
| Synopsys, Inc 1SNPS | €354.50 | €93.61 | -74% |
| Block, Inc XYZ | A$114.53 | A$70.69 | -38% |
| CoreWeave, Inc CRWV | $79.94 | $44.89 | -44% |
| Range Intelligent Computing Technology Group 300442 | ¥71.60 | ¥34.00 | -53% |
| Oracle Financial Services Software Limited OFSS | ₹11,651 | ₹5,821 | -50% |
| 360 Security Technology Inc 601360 | ¥9.64 | ¥5.05 | -48% |
| One97 Communications Limited PAYTM | ₹1,342 | ₹181.50 | -86% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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