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Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Exodus Movement, Inc. $2.76, price $7.81, upside -64.7%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · US · ISIN US30209R1068

EM Exodus Movement, Inc. logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Exodus Movement, Inc.

EXOD · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $2.76 · Strongly overvalued (−65%)
!Quality 36/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +41.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -28.3% net margin (TTM)
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/9)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$89.30 $1.00 Fair Value $2.76 Sep 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $1.00 – $89.30 · fair‑value band $1.82 – $3.44 · the $7.81 price screens above the $2.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Exodus Movement, Inc. operates as a financial technology for blockchain and digital asset industry in the United States. The company develops Exodus Platform, an un-hosted self-custodial digital asset wallet that provides access to the world of decentralized finance and the power of blockchain.

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Exodus Movement, Inc. operates as a financial technology for blockchain and digital asset industry in the United States. The company develops Exodus Platform, an un-hosted self-custodial digital asset wallet that provides access to the world of decentralized finance and the power of blockchain. It also offers fiat on and off-ramps to facilitate an exchange for users to buy digital assets with fiat currency through bank transfer, credit or debit card, and Apple Pay; and staking services, which allows users to stake digital assets in their Exodus wallets. The company offers its products directly through the Exodus Platform, including storing, sending, and receiving digital assets through the wallet functionality. Exodus Movement, Inc. was founded in 2015 and is based in Omaha, Nebraska.

Stock analysis

Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) currently trades at $7.81, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.76, implying the stock looks roughly 183.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $1.82 (bear) to $3.44 (bull), the price of $7.81 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Exodus Movement, Inc. reported revenue of $122M in FY2025 versus $95.8M in FY2021, a compound +6.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$11.4M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $227M · P/E ex one-offs 30.1 · P/S ratio 1.66 · EPS (TTM) $−1.02 · Net margin −9.3% · Return on equity −13.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.5% · Operating margin −27.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 76% below its 52-week high and 68% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −65%, EXOD screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.82 Fair Value $2.76 Bull $3.44
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $4.26 $5.71 $8.53 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.26 $5.71 $8.53 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23

Profitability 14
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 20
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 77
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 49
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 68
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+33.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+41.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+57.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
20.7% (2020) → −6.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

EXOD screens 183% overvalued. Compare with Microsoft Corporation →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 383 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 41 · Below median
Fair Value upside −65% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −6% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −28% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −27% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −37% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.92× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 2.09× · Cheaper than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Fortinet, Inc FTNT $178.74 $164.92 −8%
Synopsys, Inc SNPS $413.06 $250.04 −39%
Block, Inc XYZ $74.68 $101.29 +36%
CoreWeave, Inc CRWV $86.90 $71.79 −17%
NetApp, Inc NTAP $192.91 $157.18 −19%

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Exodus Movement, Inc. · Fair Value
$2.76 −183%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Exodus Movement, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/EXOD

Frequently asked questions

Is Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.76 versus a price of $7.81, about −65% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of EXOD?
Our model-based fair value for Exodus Movement, Inc. is $2.76 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.81.
What is the quality score of EXOD?
Exodus Movement, Inc. has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.76 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.82, optimistic scenario $3.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Exodus Movement, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.76, about −65% upside versus a price of $7.81 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.82, optimistic scenario $3.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
Exodus Movement, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $108M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Exodus Movement, Inc. it is $2.76 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $7.81. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Exodus Movement, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, EXOD trades above its calculated fair value: price $7.81, fair value $2.76, a gap of about −65% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of EXOD?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.81); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.76). For Exodus Movement, Inc. the two are $5.05 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Exodus Movement, Inc. worth?
The market values Exodus Movement, Inc. at about $227M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $7.81; our models calculate a fair value of $2.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about EXOD?
Our models span a range for Exodus Movement, Inc.: cautious scenario $1.82, base $2.76, optimistic $3.44 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $7.81). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
Balance-sheet figures for Exodus Movement, Inc. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −13.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is EXOD from its 52-week high?
Exodus Movement, Inc. trades at $7.81, about 76% below its 52-week high of $32.00 and 68% above the low of $4.64 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Exodus Movement, Inc.?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Palo Alto Networks, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Exodus Movement, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $7.81, calculated fair value $2.76 (−65%), Quality Score 36/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of EXOD calculated?
We run Exodus Movement, Inc. through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Exodus Movement, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $7.81. Our model-based fair value is $2.76, about −65% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Exodus Movement, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($1.82 to $3.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Exodus Movement, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
The market capitalisation of Exodus Movement, Inc. is $227M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) excluding one-off items?
Excluding one-off items, the price-to-earnings ratio of Exodus Movement, Inc. is 30.1 (fiscal year 2025, the reported result was a loss).
What is the P/S ratio of Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Exodus Movement, Inc. is 1.66 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
Earnings per share at Exodus Movement, Inc. are $−1.02. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
The net margin of Exodus Movement, Inc. is −9.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Exodus Movement, Inc. is −13.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Exodus Movement, Inc. is 5.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
The operating margin of Exodus Movement, Inc. is −27.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
Revenue at Exodus Movement, Inc. is growing −36.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +33.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD)?
Earnings per share at Exodus Movement, Inc. are growing +19.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) generate?
The free cash flow of Exodus Movement, Inc. is −$25.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Exodus Movement, Inc. (EXOD) hold?
Exodus Movement, Inc. holds more cash than debt, $4.9M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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