FDJ United (FDJU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of FDJ United stock €23.47, price €21.68, upside +8.3%, quality 54 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €20.38 – €35.17 · fair‑value band €17.61 – €29.35 · the €21.68 price screens below the €23.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.
Follow FDJ United in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether FDJ United is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
FDJ United engages in the gambling operation and distribution business in France and internationally. The company operates through Lottery and Sports Betting; Online Betting and Gaming; International Lottery; and Payment and Services segments.
Show moreShow less
It offers prize draws, such as Loto and Euromillions, as well as Illiko instant games; online offer (open to competition), including sports betting and horse-race betting, poker and casino games; and payment and collection service through a network of point"of"sale registered as agents.
The company also provides B2B solutions; and owns Relax Gaming, a supplier of online gambling products. The company was formerly known as La Française des Jeux Société anonyme and changed its name to FDJ United in March 2025.
FDJ United was founded in 1933 and is based in Boulogne-Billancourt, France.
Stock analysis
FDJ United (FDJU) currently trades at €21.68, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €23.47, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.6%).
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €40.42 per share, and 16 of the 24 models we run sit above the €21.68 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €13.68, and 8 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €17.61 (bear) to €29.35 (bull), the price of €21.68 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
FDJ United reported revenue of €3.7B in FY2025 versus €2.3B in FY2021, a compound +13.0%/yr. Reported net income was €176M in FY2025, compounding −12.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €4.0B Mid · P/E ratio 166.8 · P/S ratio 1.12 · EPS (TTM) €0.1300 · Dividend yield 9.7% · Net margin 0.7% · Return on equity 3.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 12% fair-value upside, at 8%, FDJU screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€17.61Fair Value €23.47Bull€29.35
Price €21.68 · Upside +8.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.4% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+22.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3.2% vs 0.8%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 15%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.3%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.4% a year for the price and +0.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (30 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Decent returns on equity mark the main strength in this moderate business position, while high leverage and thin evidence of lasting advantages form the central weakness.
Main risk: Higher gaming taxes in the core French market threaten to reduce margins and slow the recovery of profitable growth in lottery operations.
FDJ United continues to face higher gaming taxes and softer lottery performance in its core French market. Management counters this with a performance plan delivering cost reductions alongside investments in AI and digital lottery innovation. Will these efficiency gains and digital initiatives offset the tax pressures enough to restore profitable growth?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gambling · 45 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside+8.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.3% · Below median
Return on assets3.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)0.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)12.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−4.5% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)9.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.07× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Gambling median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)166.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B4.12× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "FDJ United Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FDJU
Frequently asked questions
Is FDJ United (FDJU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €23.47 versus a price of €21.68, about +8% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of FDJU?
Our model-based fair value for FDJ United is €23.47 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €21.68.
What is the quality score of FDJU?
FDJ United has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for FDJ United (FDJU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €23.47 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €17.61, optimistic scenario €29.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the FDJ United stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €23.47, about +8% upside versus a price of €21.68 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €17.61, optimistic scenario €29.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of FDJ United (FDJU)?
FDJ United reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does FDJ United pay a dividend?
FDJ United currently shows a dividend yield of 9.69% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
How much is the dividend of FDJ United (FDJU) and when is the ex-dividend date?
FDJ United pays a dividend of €2.10 per share a year, a dividend yield of 9.7%. The last ex-dividend date was Apr 28, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2020. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.28 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into FDJ United (FDJU)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, FDJ United would have to grow free cash flow by -2.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.9 % per year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FDJU use?
Our models discount FDJ United at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.66, country premium for France. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For FDJ United that is -2.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has FDJ United (FDJU) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at FDJ United grew +13.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -2.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of FDJ United (FDJU) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into FDJ United (-2.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of FDJ United (FDJU)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.36 %: that much free cash flow FDJ United produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of FDJ United (FDJU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For FDJ United it is €23.47 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of €21.68. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is FDJ United stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, FDJU trades below its calculated fair value: price €21.68, fair value €23.47, a gap of about +8% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FDJU?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€21.68); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€23.47). For FDJ United the two are €1.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is FDJ United worth?
The market values FDJ United at about €4.0B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is €21.68; our models calculate a fair value of €23.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FDJU?
Our models span a range for FDJ United: cautious scenario €17.61, base €23.47, optimistic €29.35 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price €21.68). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FDJU?
FDJ United trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 166.8 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €23.47 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), reported earnings: 24.9. Other multiples: P/B 4.1, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 5.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of FDJ United (FDJU)?
Balance-sheet figures for FDJ United (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 3.3%, debt of 2.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FDJU from its 52-week high?
FDJ United trades at €21.68, about 14% below its 52-week high of €25.35 and 6% above the low of €20.38 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €23.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to FDJ United?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Evolution AB, Flutter Entertainment plc, The Lottery Corporation, Lottomatica Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is FDJ United stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price €21.68, calculated fair value €23.47 (+8%), Quality Score 54/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FDJU calculated?
We run FDJ United through 24 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of €23.47 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. FDJ United currently trades 8% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of FDJ United (FDJU)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was €21.68. Our model-based fair value is €23.47, about +8% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with FDJ United right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of FDJ United (FDJU) come from?
Earnings per share at FDJ United grew +8.7 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.9 %, EBIT margin +2.3 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of FDJ United
How large is the market capitalisation of FDJ United (FDJU)?
The market capitalisation of FDJ United is €4.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of FDJ United (FDJU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of FDJ United is 1.12 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of FDJ United (FDJU)?
Earnings per share at FDJ United are €0.1300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 166.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of FDJ United (FDJU)?
The dividend yield of FDJ United is 9.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of FDJ United (FDJU)?
The net margin of FDJ United is 0.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of FDJ United (FDJU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of FDJ United is 3.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of FDJ United (FDJU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of FDJ United is 11.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of FDJ United (FDJU)?
The operating margin of FDJ United is 12.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at FDJ United (FDJU)?
Revenue at FDJ United is growing −4.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at FDJ United (FDJU)?
Earnings per share at FDJ United are growing −78.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does FDJ United (FDJU) carry?
The net debt of FDJ United is €1.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch FDJ United in the live analysis
One click puts FDJ United on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Nov 2, 2026