Five Below Inc (FIVE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Five Below Inc stock $185, price $241, that is 23.3% below the price, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $55.75 – $262.72 · fair‑value band $121.92 – $240.49 · the $241.26 price screens above the $184.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Five Below, Inc. operates as a specialty value retailer in the United States.
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It offers assortment of classic and novelty candy bars, movie-size box candy, seasonal-related candy, gum, and snack food products, as well as sells chilled drinks through coolers; socks, jewelry, hair accessories, cozy loungewear, and t-shirts; personal care essentials, skincare, fragrance, and branded cosmetics; and party goods, decorations, gag gifts, greeting cards, and every day and special occasion merchandise products.
The company also provides personalized living space products, such as lamps, posters, frames, fleece blankets, plush items, pillows, candles, incense, lighting, novelty décor, accent furniture, and related items, as well as provides storage options; assortment of craft activity kits with various arts and crafts supplies, such as markers, paint, canvas, compounds, slime, beads, and stickers; and supplies craft activities and school products.
In addition, it offers cell phone cables and chargers, power banks, phone cases and accessories, screen protectors, auto phone accessories, and computer and tablet accessories, as well as earbuds, headphones, and speakers.
Further, the company provides assortment of sport balls, sports accessories and fitness products, including hand weights and yoga mats; toys, including brand name board games, puzzles, action figures, construction sets, remote control, collectibles, novelty toys, and plush products; and outdoor toys for the pool and beach.
Additionally, it offers seasonally relevant items to use for the occasions and milestones, such as Holiday, Easter, Halloween, Summer, and Back to School. The company was formerly known as Cheap Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Five Below, Inc. in August 2002.
Five Below, Inc. was incorporated in 2002 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
Stock analysis
Five Below Inc (FIVE) currently trades at $241.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $184.99, 23% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $214.88 per share, and 2 of the 24 models we run sit above the $241.26 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $26.69, and 22 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $121.92 (bear) to $240.49 (bull), the price of $241.26 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Five Below Inc reported revenue of $4.8B in FY2026 versus $2.8B in FY2022, a compound +13.7%/yr. Reported net income was $359M in FY2026, compounding +6.5%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $13.4B Large · P/E ratio 21.6 · P/S ratio 2.52 · EPS (TTM) $11.17 · Net margin 11.7% · Return on equity 28.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.9% · Operating margin 8.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 60 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −5% fair-value upside, at −23%, FIVE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$121.92Fair Value $184.99Bull$240.49
Price $241.26 · Downside -23.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($8.54 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director bought shares worth $93,312, on Jun 29, 2026. Over the same period, 5 people sold shares worth $5.6M.
SaleEric M SpecterCAO2× since Jan 13, 2026: 14,000 shares, avg. $219.95$3.1MSep 14, 2026
SaleJacob Kimball HawkinsCMOO818 shares at $248.88$203,584Sep 10, 2026
SaleMaureen Marie GellermanCHRO2× since Dec 5, 2025: 2,154 shares, avg. $230.11$495,656Sep 9, 2026
SaleMichael F Devine IIIDirector2× since Dec 11, 2025: 10,250 shares, avg. $210.35$2.2MSep 4, 2026
SaleKenneth R BullCOO4× since Dec 5, 2025: 52,535 shares, avg. $204.49$10.7MSep 4, 2026
BuyRobert LynchDirector530 shares at $176.06$93,312Jun 29, 2026
SaleRichard L MarkeeDirector3,000 shares at $232.04$696,120Mar 26, 2026
SaleRonald SargentDirector20,000 shares at $231.52$4.6MMar 24, 2026
SaleKathleen S BarclayDirector2,200 shares at $182.03$400,466Dec 15, 2025
SaleGeorge HillChief Retail Officer7,500 shares at $182.09$1.4MDec 12, 202510b5-1 plan
Plus 37 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+22.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +19.1% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+15.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.15.7% vs 19.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.9% a year for the price and +7.6% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: The company's strength lies in its flywheel of sourcing trending items and executing sharp merchandising to drive traffic, while its main weakness is the limited evidence of a durable competitive moat in discount retail.
Main risk: Low-cost online platforms such as Temu and TikTok Shop could capture customers seeking trendy impulse items and force Five Below to lower prices or margins on its trend-driven assortment.
Bull case: By deepening its use of AI for trend detection and inventory while strengthening direct supplier ties outside China, Five Below could maintain fresh assortments and protect margins against online rivals.
Bear case: If online platforms like Temu dominate discovery of trendy items and tariffs raise costs on Chinese imports, Five Below could lose traffic and face sustained margin pressure on its core impulse products.
Five Below relies on merchants quickly sourcing trending items, marketing teams amplifying the story and stores executing sharp merchandising to keep the assortment fresh. This flywheel has delivered strong traffic and a raised full-year outlook. Our models see the stock as overvalued, so does the Crocs patent lawsuit risk around key impulse products outweigh the operational gains or will the trend focus keep driving results?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Retail · 204 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−23.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)28.3% · Top 25%
Return on assets6.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)11.7% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)8.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)22.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
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Is Five Below Inc (FIVE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $184.99 versus a price of $241.26, about 23% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FIVE?
Our model-based fair value for Five Below Inc is $184.99 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $241.26.
What is the quality score of FIVE?
Five Below Inc has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Five Below Inc (FIVE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $184.99 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $121.92, optimistic scenario $240.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Five Below Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $184.99, about 23% lower versus a price of $241.26 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $121.92, optimistic scenario $240.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Five Below Inc (FIVE)?
Five Below Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Five Below Inc (FIVE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Five Below Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +15.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.4 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of FIVE use?
Our models discount Five Below Inc at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.94, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Five Below Inc that is +15.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Five Below Inc (FIVE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Five Below Inc grew +19.4 % a year. The price currently implies +15.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Five Below Inc (FIVE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Five Below Inc (+15.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Five Below Inc (FIVE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.07 %: that much free cash flow Five Below Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Five Below Inc (FIVE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Five Below Inc it is $184.99 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $241.26. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Five Below Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, FIVE trades above its calculated fair value: price $241.26, fair value $184.99, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FIVE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($241.26); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($184.99). For Five Below Inc the two are $56.27 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Five Below Inc worth?
The market values Five Below Inc at about $13.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $241.26; our models calculate a fair value of $184.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FIVE?
Our models span a range for Five Below Inc: cautious scenario $121.92, base $184.99, optimistic $240.49 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $241.26). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FIVE?
Five Below Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.6 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $184.99 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2022 ex one-offs: 34.2. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 6.1, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 15.5.
What is the PEG ratio of FIVE?
The PEG ratio of Five Below Inc is 0.98 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Five Below Inc (FIVE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Five Below Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 28.3%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FIVE from its 52-week high?
Five Below Inc trades at $241.26, about 8% below its 52-week high of $262.72 and 64% above the low of $147.05 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $184.99 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Five Below Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc, Williams-Sonoma, Inc, Ulta Beauty, Inc, Casey's General Stores, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Five Below Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $241.26, calculated fair value $184.99 (−23%), Quality Score 61/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FIVE calculated?
We run Five Below Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $184.99, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Five Below Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Five Below Inc (FIVE)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $241.26. Our model-based fair value is $184.99, about 23% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Five Below Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($121.92 to $240.49) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Five Below Inc (FIVE) come from?
Earnings per share at Five Below Inc grew +19.8 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +19.0 %, EBIT margin −1.8 %, tax rate +2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Five Below Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Five Below Inc (FIVE)?
The market capitalisation of Five Below Inc is $13.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Five Below Inc (FIVE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Five Below Inc is 2.52 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Five Below Inc (FIVE)?
Earnings per share at Five Below Inc are $11.17 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Five Below Inc (FIVE)?
The net margin of Five Below Inc is 11.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Five Below Inc (FIVE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Five Below Inc is 28.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Five Below Inc (FIVE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Five Below Inc is 9.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Five Below Inc (FIVE)?
The operating margin of Five Below Inc is 8.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Five Below Inc (FIVE)?
Revenue at Five Below Inc is growing +22.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Five Below Inc (FIVE)?
Earnings per share at Five Below Inc are growing +418% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Five Below Inc (FIVE) carry?
The net debt of Five Below Inc is $1.3B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 3.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026