First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc stock $5.35, price $12.86, that is 58.4% below the price, quality 41 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 12 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.11 – $25.52 · fair‑value band $5.35 – $8.66 · the $12.86 price screens above the $5.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019.
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First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is based in Bradenton, Florida.
Stock analysis
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) currently trades at $12.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $5.35, 58% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $9.15 per share, and 1 of the 12 models we run sit above the $12.86 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $3.44, and 11 of the 12 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $5.35 (bear) to $8.66 (bull), the price of $12.86 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $601M in FY2021, a compound +19.4%/yr. Reported net income was $19.4M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $801M Small · P/E ratio 41.5 · P/S ratio 0.59 · EPS (TTM) $0.3100 · Net margin 1.5% · Return on equity 3.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin 3.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 25 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −58%, FWRG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$5.35Fair Value $5.35Bull$8.66
Price $12.86 · Downside -58.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2658 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.
SaleJay Anthony WolszczakChief Legal Officer, GC & Secy2× since Mar 10, 2026: 10,159 shares, avg. $12.57$127,681Mar 17, 2026
SaleH Melville Hope IIICFO and Treasurer2× since Mar 10, 2026: 11,236 shares, avg. $12.57$141,190Mar 17, 2026
SaleLaura Anne SorensenChief People Officer2× since Mar 10, 2026: 6,429 shares, avg. $12.57$80,822Mar 17, 2026
SaleChristopher Anthony TomassoPresident and CEO, Director2× since Mar 10, 2026: 58,376 shares, avg. $12.56$733,200Mar 17, 2026
SaleEric Richard HartmanChief Development Officer2× since Mar 10, 2026: 6,639 shares, avg. $12.57$83,458Mar 17, 2026
SaleJohn Daniel JonesChief Operations Officer2× since Mar 10, 2026: 6,297 shares, avg. $12.57$79,160Mar 17, 2026
SaleMatthew EisenacherChief Brand Officer2× since Mar 10, 2026: 8,830 shares, avg. $12.57$110,977Mar 17, 2026
SaleWilliam A KussellDirector2× since Dec 9, 2025: 12,330 shares, avg. $17.00$209,610Jan 22, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 9 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.6%
’18
’19
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+29.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+29.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−14% → 3%
Compare First Watch Restaurant Group Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Restaurants · 200 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−58.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.1% · Below median
Return on assets1.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)1.5% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)3.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.43× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)41.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.28× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)0.59× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA8.7× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 36
FUTURE (revenue growth)54· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)13· sector 26
HEALTH (low debt)79· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 61
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "First Watch Restaurant Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/FWRG
Frequently asked questions
Is First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $5.35 versus a price of $12.86, about 58% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of FWRG?
Our model-based fair value for First Watch Restaurant Group Inc is $5.35 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.86.
What is the quality score of FWRG?
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $5.35 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.35, optimistic scenario $8.66. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the First Watch Restaurant Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $5.35, about 58% lower versus a price of $12.86 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.35, optimistic scenario $8.66. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.4B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For First Watch Restaurant Group Inc it is $5.35 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $12.86. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models in 5 families (Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is First Watch Restaurant Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, FWRG trades above its calculated fair value: price $12.86, fair value $5.35, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of FWRG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($5.35). For First Watch Restaurant Group Inc the two are $7.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is First Watch Restaurant Group Inc worth?
The market values First Watch Restaurant Group Inc at about $801M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $12.86; our models calculate a fair value of $5.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about FWRG?
Our models span a range for First Watch Restaurant Group Inc: cautious scenario $5.35, base $5.35, optimistic $8.66 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $12.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of FWRG?
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.5 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $5.35 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.3, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 8.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
Balance-sheet figures for First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 3.1%, debt of 0.43 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is FWRG from its 52-week high?
First Watch Restaurant Group Inc trades at $12.86, about 31% below its 52-week high of $18.56 and 27% above the low of $10.11 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $5.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to First Watch Restaurant Group Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, Yum! Brands, Inc, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is First Watch Restaurant Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $12.86, calculated fair value $5.35 (−58%), Quality Score 41/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of FWRG calculated?
We run First Watch Restaurant Group Inc through 12 models from 5 families: Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $5.35 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. First Watch Restaurant Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $12.86. Our model-based fair value is $5.35, about 58% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with First Watch Restaurant Group Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.66). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
The market capitalisation of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc is $801M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc is 0.59 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
Earnings per share at First Watch Restaurant Group Inc are $0.3100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 41.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
The net margin of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc is 1.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
The operating margin of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
Revenue at First Watch Restaurant Group Inc is growing +10.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG)?
Earnings per share at First Watch Restaurant Group Inc are growing +58.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) generate?
The free cash flow of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc is −$31.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (FWRG) carry?
The net debt of First Watch Restaurant Group Inc is $987M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 6, 2026