MFA Financial Inc (MFA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of MFA Financial Inc $16.74, price $8.32, upside +101.2%, quality 49 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch MFA Financial Inc for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.48 – $10.39 · fair‑value band $13.98 – $66.96 · the $8.32 price screens below the $16.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Follow MFA Financial in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether MFA Financial is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
MFA Financial, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate investment trust in the United States. It operates through two segments: Mortgage-Related Assets and Lima One.
Show more
MFA Financial, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate investment trust in the United States. It operates through two segments: Mortgage-Related Assets and Lima One. The Mortgage-Related Assets segment primarily invests in and manages a diversified portfolio of residential whole loans, including nonqualified mortgage loans, business purpose loans such as single-family rental loans, single-family and multifamily transitional loans, legacy re-performing and non-performing loans, and agency-eligible investor loans. This segment also invests in residential mortgage-backed securities, including agency MBS, non-agency MBS, and credit risk transfer securities. The Lima One segment includes a stand-alone mortgage origination and servicing business; and originates and services business purpose loans for real estate investors, and related mortgage banking activities. The company offers residential whole loans, including purchased credit deteriorated and non-performing loans; and mortgage servicing rights-related assets. The company's investment activities through a combination of securitization transactions, term loan warehouse financing and repurchase agreement financing. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. MFA Financial, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is based in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
MFA Financial Inc (MFA) currently trades at $8.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $16.74, implying the stock looks roughly 50.3% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $35.60 per share, and 9 of the 13 models we run sit above the $8.32 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $5.07, and 4 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $13.98 (bear) to $66.96 (bull), the price of $8.32 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
MFA Financial Inc reported revenue of $875M in FY2025 versus $337M in FY2021, a compound +26.9%/yr. Reported net income was $177M in FY2025, compounding −14.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $973M · P/E ratio 9.4 · P/S ratio 1.90 · EPS (TTM) $0.8800 · Net margin 20.2% · Return on equity 7.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6% · Operating margin −2.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 54% fair-value upside, at 101%, MFA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $13.98Fair Value $16.74Bull $66.96
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+213.0%
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.5%
’12
’13
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’21
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−9.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−11% vs −7%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.98% → 79%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+49.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +46.2% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 39 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Above median
Fair Value upside+101% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)7% · Above median
Return on assets1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)47% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)−2% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−47% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)17.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.58× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is MFA Financial Inc (MFA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $16.74 versus a price of $8.32, about +101% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MFA?
Our model-based fair value for MFA Financial Inc is $16.74 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.32.
What is the quality score of MFA?
MFA Financial Inc has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $16.74 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.98, optimistic scenario $66.96. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MFA Financial Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $16.74, about +101% upside versus a price of $8.32 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $13.98, optimistic scenario $66.96. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, MFA Financial Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +49.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 6 years revenue grew +12.4 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MFA use?
Our models discount MFA Financial Inc at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.51, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For MFA Financial Inc that is +49.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has MFA Financial Inc (MFA) delivered so far?
Over the past 6 years revenue at MFA Financial Inc grew +12.4 % a year. The price currently implies +49.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of MFA Financial Inc (MFA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into MFA Financial Inc (+49.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.70 %: that much free cash flow MFA Financial Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MFA Financial Inc it is $16.74 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $8.32. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is MFA Financial Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, MFA trades below its calculated fair value: price $8.32, fair value $16.74, a gap of about +101% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MFA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($16.74). For MFA Financial Inc the two are $8.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MFA Financial Inc worth?
The market values MFA Financial Inc at about $973M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $8.32; our models calculate a fair value of $16.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MFA?
Our models span a range for MFA Financial Inc: cautious scenario $13.98, base $16.74, optimistic $66.96 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $8.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MFA?
MFA Financial Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $16.74 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.5, P/B 0.5, P/S 3.4, EV/EBITDA 10.6.
What is the PEG ratio of MFA?
The PEG ratio of MFA Financial Inc is 2.48 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
Balance-sheet figures for MFA Financial Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 7.4%, debt of 3.58 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MFA from its 52-week high?
MFA Financial Inc trades at $8.32, about 20% below its 52-week high of $10.39 and 1% above the low of $8.27 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $16.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MFA Financial Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Annaly Capital Management, Inc, AGNC Investment Corp, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, Rithm Capital Corp, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MFA Financial Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $8.32, calculated fair value $16.74 (+101%), Quality Score 49/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MFA calculated?
We run MFA Financial Inc through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $16.74, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. MFA Financial Inc currently trades 101 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $8.32. Our model-based fair value is $16.74, about +101% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MFA Financial Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($13.98). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($13.98 to $66.96). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of MFA Financial Inc (MFA) come from?
Earnings per share at MFA Financial Inc grew −10.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.5 %, EBIT margin +13.9 %, tax rate +10.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −30.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of MFA Financial Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
The market capitalisation of MFA Financial Inc is $973M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MFA Financial Inc is 1.90 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
Earnings per share at MFA Financial Inc are $0.8800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
The net margin of MFA Financial Inc is 20.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MFA Financial Inc is 7.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MFA Financial Inc is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
The operating margin of MFA Financial Inc is −2.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
Revenue at MFA Financial Inc is growing −46.5% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
Earnings per share at MFA Financial Inc are growing −5.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does MFA Financial Inc (MFA) carry?
The net debt of MFA Financial Inc is $10.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch MFA Financial Inc in the live analysis
One click puts MFA Financial Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026