MFA Financial, Inc (MFA) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · US · Market cap $973M
MFA Financial, Inc
MFA · US
Fair value as of: Jul 27, 2026
From 10 valuation models · updated 14 days ago
Share price −0.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 62% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($14.93). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($14.93 to $26.92) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.48 – $10.39 · fair‑value band $14.93 – $26.92 · the $9.23 price screens below the $14.93 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 27, 2026.
Analysis
MFA Financial, Inc (MFA) currently trades at $9.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.93, implying the stock looks roughly 61.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, MFA Financial, Inc generated revenue of $288M at a net margin of 46.7%. Revenue declined 46.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.4%. Net debt stands at $10.8B. Fundamentals as of Jul 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $14.93 (bear case) to $26.92 (bull case); at $9.23, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 62%, MFA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 10 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($19.18) versus Dividend Discount ($5.07). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
MFA Financial, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate investment trust in the United States. It operates through two segments: Mortgage-Related Assets and Lima One.
Full company description
MFA Financial, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate investment trust in the United States. It operates through two segments: Mortgage-Related Assets and Lima One. The Mortgage-Related Assets segment primarily invests in and manages a diversified portfolio of residential whole loans, including nonqualified mortgage loans, business purpose loans such as single-family rental loans, single-family and multifamily transitional loans, legacy re-performing and non-performing loans, and agency-eligible investor loans. This segment also invests in residential mortgage-backed securities, including agency MBS, non-agency MBS, and credit risk transfer securities. The Lima One segment includes a stand-alone mortgage origination and servicing business; and originates and services business purpose loans for real estate investors, and related mortgage banking activities. The company offers residential whole loans, including purchased credit deteriorated and non-performing loans; and mortgage servicing rights-related assets. The company's investment activities through a combination of securitization transactions, term loan warehouse financing and repurchase agreement financing. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. MFA Financial, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is based in New York, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
MFA Financial, Inc reported revenue of $875M in FY2025 versus $337M in FY2021, a compound +26.9%/yr. Reported net income was $177M in FY2025, compounding −14.4%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- MFA Financial Inc (MFA) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strategic Growth and Credit ...
- MFA Financial Non-GAAP EPS of $0.35 beats by $0.10, revenue of $58.57M misses by $1M
- MFA Financial, Inc. Announces Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results
- MFA Financial, Inc. Plans Live Audio Webcast of Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call
Peer Group
REIT - Mortgage · 40 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY | $22.45 | $22.84 | +2% |
| AGNC Investment Corp AGNC | $10.56 | $12.03 | +14% |
| Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD | $16.52 | $14.93 | -10% |
| Rithm Capital Corp RITM | $9.12 | $20.75 | +128% |
| Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc BXMT | $16.69 | $14.84 | -11% |
| Dynex Capital, Inc DX | $12.60 | $7.67 | -39% |
| ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR | $16.13 | $20.28 | +26% |
| Ellington Financial Inc EFC | $13.37 | $13.45 | +1% |
| Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance, Inc ARI | $6.76 | $13.56 | +101% |
| Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC | $6.54 | $6.26 | -4% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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