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Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 2, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hindalco Industries Limited stock ₹1,026, price ₹911, upside +12.5%, quality 38 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials IN · ISIN INE038A01020

Broad data Oct 31, 2026

Hindalco Industries Limited

HINDALCO · NSE

Speculative

The stock costs 11% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value ₹1,026 · Undervalued (11%)

Ranks above peers (8/13)

Broad data

Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +32%, profit +75%.

Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +16.0 %/yr in INR)

Thin margins · 5.6% net margin (TTM)

Moderate debt

0.5% dividend yield · Token dividend

Moderate moat 45/100 · thin data

Quality 38/100

Negative free cash flow

⟳ Cyclical

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Cheaper Chinese aluminum imports🚩Environmental compliance at coal mines

26 models, one by oneBear ₹751.98 to bull ₹1,282 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 38/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 31, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range ₹305.91 – ₹1,144 · fair‑value band ₹751.98 – ₹1,282 · the ₹911.40 price screens below the ₹1,026 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 31, 2026.

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Company profile

Hindalco Industries Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes aluminum and copper products in India, the United States, Brazil, South Korea, the United Kingdom, Germany, China, and internationally.

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It operates through Novelis, Aluminium Upstream, Aluminium Downstream, and Copper segments.

The company offers primary aluminum, such as ingots, wirerods, primary foundry alloys, and billets; flat rolled products, including building and pattern sheets, PCB entry and cold-rolled sheets, closure and fin stocks, cable wrap and lamp cap stocks, foil and litho stocks, spiral fin stocks, circles, hot-rolled plates, cold-rolled coils, and flooring sheets/tread plates; extrusions; and foils, as well as aluminium sheet and light gauge products.

It also engages in bauxite and coal mining, refineries, and metal and power; and specialty alumina solutions, including refractory, ceramic, polishing, flame retardant, battery, and water treatment solutions.

In addition, the company provides copper wire and recycled rods, alloy rods, IGT tubes, and cathodes; precious metals, such as gold and silver bars, selenium, and platinum group metals; and di-ammonium phosphate, as well as internally grooved copper tube and copper scrap recycling operations.

Further, it provides investment, cargo, management, aluminum import and export, engineering, cash management, sales, and welfare services. The company exports its products. It offers its products under the PrizTec, EcoEdge G, EcoEdge C, Everlast, Eternia, Freshwrapp, FUSALOX, and Totalis brands.

The company serves the building and construction, batteries and renewable energy, commercial transport, consumer durables, circularity and home solutions, defence and aerospace, electrical and power, industrial machinery, packaging, and personal mobility industries.

Hindalco Industries Limited was incorporated in 1958 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.

Stock analysis

Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO) currently trades at ₹911.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹1,026, implying the stock looks roughly 11.1% undervalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹1,074 per share, and 7 of the 16 models we run sit above the ₹911.40 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹297.76, and 9 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: ₹751.98 (bear) to ₹1,282 (bull), the price of ₹911.40 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Hindalco Industries Limited reported revenue of ₹2.7T in FY2026 versus ₹1.9T in FY2022, a compound +9.1%/yr. Reported net income was ₹134B in FY2026, compounding −0.6%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap ₹2.0T (≈ $21.4B) Large · P/E ratio 12.4 · P/S ratio 0.69 · EPS (TTM) ₹73.71 · Dividend yield 0.5% · Net margin 5.6% · Return on equity 10.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 45 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 13%, HINDALCO screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear ₹751.98 Fair Value ₹1,026 Bull ₹1,282

Price ₹911.40 · Upside +12.5%

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹40.66 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Best data coverage

Residual Income ₹494.22 ₹525.21 ₹600.14 76

EPV ₹451.53 ₹544.46 ₹620.88 74

ROIC Compounder ₹451.53 ₹544.46 ₹627.88 72

All 16 models by family

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd ₹410.20 ₹2,018 ₹2,783 64

Lynch FV ₹543.04 ₹775.77 ₹1,009 61

PEG = 1.0 ₹543.04 ₹775.77 ₹1,009 57

EPV ₹451.53 ₹544.46 ₹620.88 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM ₹36.84 ₹63.97 ₹85.38 68

DDM Multi-Stage ₹36.84 ₹59.58 ₹68.59 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple ₹769.13 ₹1,026 ₹1,282 63

P/S Multiple ₹769.13 ₹1,026 ₹1,282 58

P/B Multiple ₹471.62 ₹628.82 ₹786.03 55

EV/EBIT ₹867.42 ₹1,283 ₹1,699 65

EV/EBITDA ₹809.35 ₹1,206 ₹1,602 66

EV/Revenue ₹701.10 ₹1,164 ₹1,628 52

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) ₹222.21 ₹297.76 ₹444.42 54

Economic Profit

Residual Income ₹494.22 ₹525.21 ₹600.14 76

ROIC Compounder ₹451.53 ₹544.46 ₹627.88 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E ₹751.98 ₹1,074 ₹1,397 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 39

How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital

Quality Growth 24

Are margins and returns getting better?

Cashflow 5

Do the profits arrive as real cash?

Financial strength 46

Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble

Investment 36

Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?

Low Volatility 67

How calm the share price moves, does not count

Price momentum 36

Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count

Near the 52-week high 40

Distance to the 52-week high, does not count

New shares 82

Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 58/100

The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Revenue growth 1 year

+16.0%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+7.4%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+16.0%

Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.9% a year

Revenue growth 22 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+17.3%

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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.

+29.4%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+28.9%

Dividend (yield on the price)0.5%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 28.9% / 24.6%

Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 10%

Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aluminum · 82 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures

Overall it ranks above its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 38 · Bottom 25%

Fair Value upside +12.5% · Above median

Profitability

Return on equity (12 months) 10.3% · Above median

Return on assets 3.9% · Above median

Net margin (12 months) 5.6% · Above median

Operating margin (12 months) 13.7% · Above median

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 32.1% · Above median

Dividend yield (12 months) 0.5% · Bottom 25%

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.55× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Aluminum median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 12.4× · Cheaper than median

P/B 1.48× · Pricier than median

P/S (12 months) 0.69× · Cheaper than median

EV/EBITDA 6.4× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)50 · sector 22

FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 100

PAST (return on equity)41 · sector 40

HEALTH (low debt)72 · sector 93

DIVIDEND (yield)11 · sector 43

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Aluminum stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value	Compare
Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding 002379	¥14.22	¥23.21	+63%	vs HINDALCO
China Hongqiao Group 1378	HK$19.57	HK$30.29	+55%	vs HINDALCO
Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co 000933	¥25.80	¥32.01	+24%	vs HINDALCO
Press Metal Aluminium Holdings 8869	7.00 MYR	7.65 MYR	+9%	vs HINDALCO
Alcoa Corporation AA	$39.19	$39.73	+1%	vs HINDALCO
Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co 600219	¥4.26	¥4.29	+1%	vs HINDALCO
Norsk Hydro ASA NHY	kr 65.98	kr 66.35	+1%	vs HINDALCO
Tianshan Aluminum Group 002532	¥11.93	¥11.42	−4%	vs HINDALCO
Yunnan Aluminium Co 000807	¥24.96	¥13.49	−46%	vs HINDALCO
Aluminum Corporation 601600	¥8.54	¥4.16	−51%	vs HINDALCO

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Frequently asked questions

Is Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Oct 31, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹1,026 versus a price of ₹911.40, about +13% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of HINDALCO?

Our model-based fair value for Hindalco Industries Limited is ₹1,026 (as of Oct 31, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹911.40.

What is the quality score of HINDALCO?

Hindalco Industries Limited has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹1,026 (as of Oct 31, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹751.98, optimistic scenario ₹1,282. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Hindalco Industries Limited stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at ₹1,026, about +13% upside versus a price of ₹911.40 (undervalued). Cautious scenario ₹751.98, optimistic scenario ₹1,282. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?

Hindalco Industries Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹3.0T (latest available figure, as of Oct 31, 2026).

Does Hindalco Industries Limited pay a dividend?

Hindalco Industries Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 0.55% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 31, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hindalco Industries Limited it is ₹1,026 per share (as of Oct 31, 2026), against a price of ₹911.40. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Hindalco Industries Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Oct 31, 2026, HINDALCO trades below its calculated fair value: price ₹911.40, fair value ₹1,026, a gap of about +13% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of HINDALCO?

No. The price is what the market pays today (₹911.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹1,026). For Hindalco Industries Limited the two are ₹114.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Hindalco Industries Limited worth?

The market values Hindalco Industries Limited at about ₹2.0T (market capitalisation, as of Oct 31, 2026). Per share that is ₹911.40; our models calculate a fair value of ₹1,026 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HINDALCO?

Our models span a range for Hindalco Industries Limited: cautious scenario ₹751.98, base ₹1,026, optimistic ₹1,282 per share (as of Oct 31, 2026, price ₹911.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of HINDALCO?

Hindalco Industries Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.4 (as of Oct 31, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹1,026 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 9.4. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 6.4.

How solid is the balance sheet of Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?

Balance-sheet figures for Hindalco Industries Limited (as of Oct 31, 2026): return on equity 10.3%, debt of 0.55 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is HINDALCO from its 52-week high?

Hindalco Industries Limited trades at ₹911.40, about 20% below its 52-week high of ₹1,144 and 18% above the low of ₹770.63 (as of Nov 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹1,026 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Hindalco Industries Limited?

From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding, Aluminum Corporation, China Hongqiao Group, Norsk Hydro ASA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Hindalco Industries Limited stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Oct 31, 2026: price ₹911.40, calculated fair value ₹1,026 (+13%), Quality Score 38/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of HINDALCO calculated?

We run Hindalco Industries Limited through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹1,026, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Hindalco Industries Limited currently trades 11 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?

The closing price on Nov 2, 2026 was ₹911.40. Our model-based fair value is ₹1,026, about +13% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Hindalco Industries Limited right now?

The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Where does the earnings growth of Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO) come from?

Earnings per share at Hindalco Industries Limited grew +27.5 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.2 %, EBIT margin +3.9 %, tax rate +1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +10.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Hindalco Industries Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?

The market capitalisation of Hindalco Industries Limited is ₹2.0T (≈ $21.4B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Hindalco Industries Limited is 0.69 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?

Earnings per share at Hindalco Industries Limited are ₹73.71 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?

The dividend yield of Hindalco Industries Limited is 0.5% (payout 6.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?

The net margin of Hindalco Industries Limited is 5.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Hindalco Industries Limited is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hindalco Industries Limited is 8.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?

The operating margin of Hindalco Industries Limited is 13.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?

Revenue at Hindalco Industries Limited is growing +32.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO)?

Earnings per share at Hindalco Industries Limited are growing +75.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO) generate?

The free cash flow of Hindalco Industries Limited is −₹234B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net debt does Hindalco Industries Limited (HINDALCO) carry?

The net debt of Hindalco Industries Limited is ₹844B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.

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