Hyprop (HYP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 9, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Hyprop stock ZAR 37.21, price ZAR 59.13, that is 37.1% below the price, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R19.95 – R64.40 · fair‑value band R23.39 – R64.17 · the R59.13 price screens above the R37.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Hyprop Investments Limited is a South African based specialist retail property fund with high-quality portfolios in South Africa and Eastern Europe, and is listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and A2X as a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) with a market capitalisation at 30 June 2025 of R17.1bn.
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The Group holds interests in a R42bn portfolio of shopping centres in South Africa (SA) and Eastern Europe (EE). The SA portfolio includes super regional centre Canal Walk, large regional centres Clearwater, The Glen, Woodlands Boulevard, Cape Gate, Somerset Mall, Rosebank Mall and Table Bay Mall, and small regional centre Hyde Park Corner.
The Group's EE portfolio comprises The Mall in Sofia, Bulgaria, City Center one East and City Center one West, both in Zagreb, Croatia, and Skopje City Mall in Skopje, North Macedonia. Hyprop Investments Limited was incorporated in 1987 in South Africa.
Stock analysis
Hyprop (HYP) currently trades at R59.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R37.21, 37% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R92.54 per share, and 6 of the 16 models we run sit above the R59.13 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at R21.61, and 10 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R23.39 (bear) to R64.17 (bull), the price of R59.13 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Hyprop reported revenue of 5.1B ZAR in FY2026 versus 3.1B ZAR in FY2022, a compound +13.8%/yr. Reported net income was 3.6B ZAR in FY2026, compounding +28.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 24.4B ZAR Small · P/E ratio 6.7 · P/S ratio 4.77 · EPS (TTM) R8.83 · Dividend yield 6.0% · Net margin 71.2% · Return on equity 14.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 67 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −37%, HYP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR23.39Fair Value R37.21BullR64.17
Price R59.13 · Downside -37.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.98 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.2% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +24.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +18.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 16.8% / −2.5%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 55%
2026 sits 105% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2021 (starting value 4.05 per share, median 10.7 in 2016 to 2019). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+55.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +50.2% a year for the price and −1.0% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Retail · 86 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−37.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)71.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)53.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)6.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.44× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Retail median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Hyprop Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HYP
Frequently asked questions
Is Hyprop (HYP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R37.21 versus a price of R59.13, about 37% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HYP?
Our model-based fair value for Hyprop is R37.21 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R59.13.
What is the quality score of HYP?
Hyprop has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Hyprop (HYP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R37.21 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario R23.39, optimistic scenario R64.17. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Hyprop stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R37.21, about 37% lower versus a price of R59.13 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R23.39, optimistic scenario R64.17. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Hyprop (HYP)?
Hyprop reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.1B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Hyprop pay a dividend?
Hyprop currently shows a dividend yield of 5.95% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Hyprop (HYP) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Hyprop pays a dividend of R3.52 per share a year, a dividend yield of 6.0%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 7, 2026. The payout ratio is 81.6% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 39.1%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.22 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What growth is priced into Hyprop (HYP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Hyprop would have to grow free cash flow by +55.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.9 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HYP use?
Our models discount Hyprop at 13.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Hyprop that is +55.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (13.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Hyprop (HYP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Hyprop grew +12.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +55.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Hyprop (HYP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Hyprop (+55.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Hyprop (HYP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.31 %: that much free cash flow Hyprop produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Hyprop (HYP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Hyprop it is R37.21 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of R59.13. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Hyprop stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, HYP trades above its calculated fair value: price R59.13, fair value R37.21, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HYP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R59.13); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R37.21). For Hyprop the two are R21.92 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Hyprop worth?
The market values Hyprop at about 24.4B ZAR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is R59.13; our models calculate a fair value of R37.21 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HYP?
Our models span a range for Hyprop: cautious scenario R23.39, base R37.21, optimistic R64.17 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price R59.13). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HYP?
Hyprop trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.7 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R37.21 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 14.0 (reported 6.7). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, FY2026 ex one-offs: 10.3. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 4.8, EV/EBITDA 11.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Hyprop (HYP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Hyprop (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 14.2%, debt of 0.44 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HYP from its 52-week high?
Hyprop trades at R59.13, about 8% below its 52-week high of R64.40 and 15% above the low of R51.54 (as of Nov 9, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R37.21 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Hyprop?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Simon Property Group, Realty Income Corporation, Kimco Realty Corporation, Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Hyprop stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price R59.13, calculated fair value R37.21 (−37%), Quality Score 48/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HYP calculated?
We run Hyprop through 16 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of R37.21 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Hyprop itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Hyprop (HYP)?
The closing price on Nov 9, 2026 was R59.13. Our model-based fair value is R37.21, about 37% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Hyprop right now?
Weak quality (48/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (R23.39 to R64.17). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Hyprop (HYP) come from?
Earnings per share at Hyprop grew −8.2 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.1 %, EBIT margin −1.1 %, tax rate −0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Hyprop
How large is the market capitalisation of Hyprop (HYP)?
The market capitalisation of Hyprop is 24.4B ZAR. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Hyprop (HYP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Hyprop is 4.77 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Hyprop (HYP)?
Earnings per share at Hyprop are R8.83 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Hyprop (HYP)?
The dividend yield of Hyprop is 6.0% (payout 81.6%, on adjusted earnings, reported 39.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Hyprop (HYP)?
The net margin of Hyprop is 71.2% (last twelve months), excl. one-off gain FY2026 34.1%. How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Hyprop (HYP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Hyprop is 14.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Hyprop (HYP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Hyprop is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Hyprop (HYP)?
The operating margin of Hyprop is 53.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Hyprop (HYP)?
Revenue at Hyprop is growing +7.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Hyprop (HYP)?
Earnings per share at Hyprop are growing +0.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Hyprop (HYP) carry?
The net debt of Hyprop is 11.6B ZAR (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 36.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026