Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd stock $23.28, price $18.55, upside +25.5%, quality 61 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.6601 – $22.96 · fair‑value band $17.46 – $29.10 · the $18.55 price screens below the $23.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. engages in the provision of marine, land, and air transportation services in Japan, the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally.
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It offers dry bulk carrier, car carrier, liquefied natural gas carrier, crude oil and product, containerships, and liquefied gas business. The company also engages in the offshore and energy development business.
In addition, it operates container terminals; and offers warehousing and cargo consolidation services. Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY) currently trades at $18.55, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.28, implying the stock looks roughly 20% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $27.53 per share, and 16 of the 25 models we run sit above the $18.55 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $11.16, and 9 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $17.46 (bear) to $29.10 (bull), the price of $18.55 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥1.1T in FY2026 versus ¥757B in FY2022, a compound +9.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥141B in FY2026, compounding −31.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $11.6B Large · P/E ratio 14.3 · P/S ratio 1.86 · EPS (TTM) $1.30 · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 13.1% · Return on equity 7.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 43% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 13% fair-value upside, at 25%, KAIKY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$17.46Fair Value $23.28Bull$29.10
Price $18.55 · Upside +25.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3300 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.4% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+49.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+45.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.0% vs 18.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3% → 8%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.3%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −8.2% a year for the price and +1.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (21 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
AI conclusion: Positive free cash flow provides a modest foundation yet the business stays limited by commoditized marine shipping with no evident technical edge or ecosystem moat.
Main risk: Stricter IMO emissions rules and carbon taxes might increase fuel, compliance and fleet upgrade costs while structurally reducing demand for fossil fuel shipments.
Bull case: By investing early in alternative-fuel vessels and expanding into liquefied CO2 transport or offshore wind support the company could secure premium low-carbon contracts and offset higher compliance costs.
Bear case: If the company cannot pass on rising costs or renew its fleet fast enough it could lose contracts and see lower utilization in its energy and bulk shipping segments.
Kawasaki Kisen just completed the cancellation of 44 million treasury shares acquired in its recent buyback program, reducing the total shares outstanding. This capital return occurs alongside fleet growth in LNG carriers and terminal operations while the shipping sector contends with cyclical demand and decarbonization pressures. Our models currently see the stock as undervalued. Will the smaller share count deliver lasting value or simply mask the need for heavier reinvestment in the business?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Marine Shipping · 220 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside+25.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)7.6% · Below median
Return on assets6.0% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)11.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)6.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)17.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)14.3× · Pricier than median
P/B1.01× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)1.73× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)9.6× · Cheaper than median
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Is Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $23.28 versus a price of $18.55, about +25% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of KAIKY?
Our model-based fair value for Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd is $23.28 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $18.55.
What is the quality score of KAIKY?
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $23.28 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $17.46, optimistic scenario $29.10. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $23.28, about +25% upside versus a price of $18.55 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $17.46, optimistic scenario $29.10. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.1T (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 4.08% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd pays a dividend of $0.758 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.1%. The last ex-dividend date was Mar 31, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2022. The payout ratio is 50.0% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.73 times. Our assessment: Well covered. A low payout and the dividend is fully funded by free cash flow, a comfortable, sustainable dividend.
What growth is priced into Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by -6.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.5 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KAIKY use?
Our models discount Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.90, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd that is -6.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd grew +11.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -6.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (-6.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.46 %: that much free cash flow Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd it is $23.28 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $18.55. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, KAIKY trades below its calculated fair value: price $18.55, fair value $23.28, a gap of about +25% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KAIKY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($18.55); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($23.28). For Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd the two are $4.73 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd at about $11.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $18.55; our models calculate a fair value of $23.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KAIKY?
Our models span a range for Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd: cautious scenario $17.46, base $23.28, optimistic $29.10 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $18.55). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KAIKY?
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.3 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $23.28 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.0, P/S 1.7, EV/EBITDA 12.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 7.6%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is KAIKY from its 52-week high?
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd trades at $18.55, about 19% below its 52-week high of $22.96 and 43% above the low of $12.95 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $23.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft,, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $18.55, calculated fair value $23.28 (+25%), Quality Score 61/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KAIKY calculated?
We run Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $23.28 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd currently trades 20% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $18.55. Our model-based fair value is $23.28, about +25% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR right now?
Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
The market capitalisation of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd is $11.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd is 1.86 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
Earnings per share at Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd are $1.30 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
The dividend yield of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd is 4.1% (payout 58.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
The net margin of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd is 13.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
The operating margin of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd is 6.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
Revenue at Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd is growing +17.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
Earnings per share at Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd are growing −21.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY) hold?
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd holds more cash than debt, ¥26.6B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026