Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd $21.52, price $20.15, upside +6.8%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.6601 – $22.05 · fair‑value band $16.14 – $26.90 · the $20.15 price screens below the $21.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. engages in the provision of marine, land, and air transportation services in Japan, the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. It offers dry bulk carrier, car carrier, liquefied natural gas carrier, crude oil and product, containerships, and liquefied gas business.
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Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. engages in the provision of marine, land, and air transportation services in Japan, the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. It offers dry bulk carrier, car carrier, liquefied natural gas carrier, crude oil and product, containerships, and liquefied gas business. The company also engages in the offshore and energy development business. In addition, it operates container terminals; and offers warehousing and cargo consolidation services. Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR (KAIKY) currently trades at $20.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.52, implying the stock looks roughly 6.4% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $21.52 per share, and 10 of the 23 models we run sit above the $20.15 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $9.27, and 13 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $16.14 (bear) to $26.90 (bull), the price of $20.15 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR reported revenue of ¥1.1T in FY2026 versus ¥757B in FY2022, a compound +9.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥141B in FY2026, compounding −31.6%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $12.7B · P/E ratio 15.4 · P/S ratio 2.01 · EPS (TTM) $1.31 · Dividend yield 4.3% · Net margin 13.1% · Return on equity 7.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 61% fair-value upside, at 7%, KAIKY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $16.14Fair Value $21.52Bull $26.90
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.4% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+49.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+45.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3% vs 19%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3% → 8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−4.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
0.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −6.9% a year for the price and −2.1% for the forecasts.
Compare Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Marine Shipping · 236 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside+7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8% · Above median
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)13% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.10× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
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Is Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.52 versus a price of $20.15, about +7% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of KAIKY?
Our model-based fair value for Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR is $21.52 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $20.15.
What is the quality score of KAIKY?
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $21.52 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $16.14, optimistic scenario $26.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $21.52, about +7% upside versus a price of $20.15 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $16.14, optimistic scenario $26.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.0T (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.33% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -4.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of KAIKY use?
Our models discount Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.83, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR that is -4.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR grew +11.5 % a year. The price currently implies -4.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR (-4.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.52 %: that much free cash flow Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR it is $21.52 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $20.15. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, KAIKY trades below its calculated fair value: price $20.15, fair value $21.52, a gap of about +7% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of KAIKY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($20.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($21.52). For Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR the two are $1.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR at about $12.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $20.15; our models calculate a fair value of $21.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about KAIKY?
Our models span a range for Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $16.14, base $21.52, optimistic $26.90 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $20.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of KAIKY?
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.4 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $21.52 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 13.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 7.8%, debt of 0.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft,, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $20.15, calculated fair value $21.52 (+7%), Quality Score 61/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of KAIKY calculated?
We run Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $21.52, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR currently trades 7 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $20.15. Our model-based fair value is $21.52, about +7% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
The market capitalisation of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR is $12.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR is 2.01 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
Earnings per share at Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR are $1.31 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
The dividend yield of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR is 4.3% (payout 66.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
The net margin of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR is 13.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR is 7.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR is 3.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
The operating margin of Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
Revenue at Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR is growing +3.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY)?
Earnings per share at Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR are growing +48.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd (KAIKY) hold?
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd ADR holds more cash than debt, ¥26.6B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026