Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd (KAIKY) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $10.6B
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd
KAIKY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $24.72 to $9.13 (−63.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +18.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 47% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.6601 – $17.91 · fair‑value band $6.85 – $11.85 · the $17.31 price screens above the $9.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd (KAIKY) currently trades at $17.31, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.13, implying the stock looks roughly 47.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd generated revenue of $1.0T at a net margin of 13.1%. Revenue grew 3.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $26.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $6.85 (bear case) to $11.85 (bull case); at $17.31, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 67% fair-value upside, at -47%, KAIKY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($27.59) versus Earnings-Based ($11.88). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 80
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. engages in the provision of marine, land, and air transportation services in Japan, the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. It offers dry bulk carrier, car carrier, liquefied natural gas carrier, crude oil and product, containerships, and liquefied gas business.
Full company description
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. engages in the provision of marine, land, and air transportation services in Japan, the United States, Europe, Asia, and internationally. It offers dry bulk carrier, car carrier, liquefied natural gas carrier, crude oil and product, containerships, and liquefied gas business. The company also engages in the offshore and energy development business. In addition, it operates container terminals; and offers warehousing and cargo consolidation services. Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd. was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha, Ltd reported revenue of $1.1T in FY2026 versus $757B in FY2022, a compound +9.3%/yr. Reported net income was $141B in FY2026, compounding −31.6%/yr from FY2022.
KAIKY screens 47% overvalued. Compare with Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited →
Peer Group
Marine Shipping · 231 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Marine Shipping stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited ADANIPORTS | ₹1,828 | ₹1,041 | -43% |
| A.P. Møller - Mærsk A/S MAERSKA | kr 16,520 | kr 3,033 | -82% |
| COSCO SHIPPING Holdings 601919 | ¥13.98 | ¥40.37 | +189% |
| Shanghai International Port (Group) Co 600018 | ¥5.17 | ¥6.57 | +27% |
| HMM Co 011200 | 20,050 KRW | 33,855 KRW | +69% |
| Ningbo Zhoushan Port Company 601018 | ¥3.35 | ¥5.58 | +67% |
| Qingdao Port International Co 601298 | ¥8.88 | ¥15.97 | +80% |
| JSW Infrastructure Limited JSWINFRA | ₹330.05 | ₹126.31 | -62% |
| Wan Hai Lines Ltd 2615 | 80.70 TWD | 212.79 TWD | +164% |
| Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA WAWI | kr 137.70 | kr 50.56 | -63% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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