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Data-driven stock valuation

Southwest Airlines Company (LUV) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Southwest Airlines Company stock $22.81, price $44.44, that is 48.7% below the price, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Industrials US

SA Southwest Airlines Company logo Some data Nov 4, 2026

Southwest Airlines Company

LUV · US
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 49% below what the stock costs today.

Revenue last quarter +16% vs. a year ago.
Quality 57/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +25.4 %/yr in USD)
Thin margins · 2.8% net margin (TTM)
Moderate debt
1.6% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
Some data
Fair value $22.81 · Strongly overvalued (−48.7%)
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 34/100 · thin data
⟳ Cyclical

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Surging fuel costs pressuring airline margins🚩Dependence on Boeing as sole supplier🚩Ultra-low-cost carriers like Breeze on its routes
Watch Southwest Airlines Company for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$54.07 $20.85 Fair Value $22.81 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $20.85 – $54.07 · fair‑value band $19.52 – $29.67 · the $44.44 price screens above the $22.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.

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Company profile

Southwest Airlines Co. operates as a passenger airline company that provides scheduled air transportation services in the United States and internationally.

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It also provides Rapid Rewards loyalty program; SWABIZ, an online booking tool; and inflight entertainment platform that includes movies-on-demand live and on-demand television, flight tracker, and additional curated content, as well as a variety of premium snacks and coffee.

In addition, the company offers ancillary services, such as in-flight purchases, baggage fees, EarlyBird Check-In, and upgraded boarding, as well as transportation of pets and unaccompanied minors.

As of December 31, 2025, the company operated a total fleet of 803 Boeing 737 aircraft; and served 117 destinations in 42 states, the District of Columbia, and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, as well as ten near-international countries, including Mexico, Jamaica, the Bahamas, Aruba, the Dominican Republic, Costa Rica, Belize, Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Turks and Caicos.

Southwest Airlines Co. was incorporated in 1967 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Stock analysis

Southwest Airlines Company (LUV) currently trades at $44.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.81, 49% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $15.32 per share, and 2 of the 16 models we run sit above the $44.44 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $3.77, and 14 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $19.52 (bear) to $29.67 (bull), the price of $44.44 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Southwest Airlines Company reported revenue of $28.1B in FY2025 versus $15.8B in FY2021, a compound +15.5%/yr. Reported net income was $441M in FY2025, compounding −18.0%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $22.1B Large · P/E ratio 27.6 · P/S ratio 0.74 · EPS (TTM) $1.61 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 2.8% · Return on equity 11.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 18% fair-value upside, at −49%, LUV screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $19.52 Fair Value $22.81 Bull $29.67
Price $44.44 · Downside -48.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7559 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $12.61 $12.96 $13.77 76
EPV $2.89 $3.77 $4.53 74
ROIC Compounder $2.89 $3.77 $4.53 72
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $6.13 $23.29 $31.53 64
Lynch FV $5.65 $8.08 $10.50 61
PEG = 1.0 $5.65 $8.08 $10.50 57
EPV $2.89 $3.77 $4.53 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $7.11 $14.07 $21.15 67
DDM Multi-Stage $7.11 $12.21 $14.86 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $14.20 $18.93 $23.66 63
P/S Multiple $11.49 $15.32 $19.16 58
P/B Multiple $34.25 $45.66 $57.08 55
EV/EBIT $5.53 $9.25 $12.97 64
EV/EBITDA $34.00 $47.21 $60.41 67
EV/Revenue $2.34 $5.75 $9.16 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $6.86 $9.20 $13.73 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $12.61 $12.96 $13.77 76
ROIC Compounder $2.89 $3.77 $4.53 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $10.32 $14.74 $19.17 67

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 57/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 35
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 35
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 41
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 86
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 43
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 59
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 75
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 100
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

  • SaleLisa M AthertonDirector118 shares at $37.95$4,478Apr 7, 2026
  • SaleJustin JonesEVP Operations8,085 shares at $37.36$302,056Dec 5, 2025

Plus 19 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 5, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.5% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−21.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−23.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−23.1% vs −13.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−42% → 2%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

LUV screens overvalued: fair value 49% below the price. Compare with Delta Air Lines, Inc →

Note from the team Oct 11, 2026
AI conclusion: Southwest's main strength lies in its decades-old low-cost model built on one narrowbody type and short-haul efficiency, while its main weak point remains weak durable advantage with commodity services and thin profitability.
Main risk: Exclusive reliance on Boeing for its entire fleet could cause delivery delays that constrain fleet modernization, capacity growth and operational planning.
Bull case: By maintaining its extensive network and loyalty base while adapting selectively to competitive pressures, Southwest could sustain its position even as new entrants appear.
Bear case: Persistent Boeing delivery shortfalls combined with aggressive expansion by ultra-low-cost rivals could limit capacity growth and erode Southwest's share on price-sensitive routes.
Southwest built its low-cost model around one narrowbody type and short-haul efficiency for over fifty years. It is now weighing Boeing 787s to add long-haul international routes, a step that would introduce new aircraft, routes and operational layers. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the potential revenue growth from these routes exceed the added complexity and costs?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Airlines · 52 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 57 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −48.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 11.1% · Below median
Return on assets 1.5% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 2.8% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 3.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 16.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 1.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.57× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Airlines median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 27.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B 2.77× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 0.74× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 10.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.20× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 46
FUTURE (revenue growth)82 · sector 76
PAST (return on equity)44 · sector 50
HEALTH (low debt)71 · sector 67
DIVIDEND (yield)32 · sector 45

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Airlines stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
InterGlobe Aviation Limited INDIGO ₹5,420 ₹11,831 +118% vs LUV
Ryanair Holdings RYA €24.98 €36.70 +47% vs LUV
United Airlines Holdings UAL $110.49 $148.87 +35% vs LUV
Deutsche Lufthansa AG LHA €8.19 €10.00 +22% vs LUV
Delta Air Lines, Inc DAL $85.36 $100.66 +18% vs LUV
Singapore Airlines Limited C6L 7.03 SGD 7.88 SGD +12% vs LUV
Qantas Airways Limited QAN A$9.45 A$9.48 +0% vs LUV
LATAM Airlines Group LTM $47.07 $37.38 −21% vs LUV
Cathay Pacific Airways Limited 0293 HK$15.05 HK$11.32 −25% vs LUV
China Southern Airlines Company 600029 ¥5.25 ¥3.44 −34% vs LUV

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Southwest Airlines Company: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Southwest Airlines Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LUV

Frequently asked questions

Is Southwest Airlines Company (LUV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $22.81 versus a price of $44.44, about 49% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LUV?
Our model-based fair value for Southwest Airlines Company is $22.81 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $44.44.
What is the quality score of LUV?
Southwest Airlines Company has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Southwest Airlines Company (LUV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $22.81 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $19.52, optimistic scenario $29.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Southwest Airlines Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $22.81, about 49% lower versus a price of $44.44 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $19.52, optimistic scenario $29.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Southwest Airlines Company (LUV)?
Southwest Airlines Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $30.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Southwest Airlines Company pay a dividend?
Southwest Airlines Company currently shows a dividend yield of 1.62% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Southwest Airlines Company (LUV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Southwest Airlines Company it is $22.81 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $44.44. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Southwest Airlines Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, LUV trades above its calculated fair value: price $44.44, fair value $22.81, a gap of about −49% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LUV?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($44.44); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($22.81). For Southwest Airlines Company the two are $21.63 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Southwest Airlines Company worth?
The market values Southwest Airlines Company at about $22.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $44.44; our models calculate a fair value of $22.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LUV?
Our models span a range for Southwest Airlines Company: cautious scenario $19.52, base $22.81, optimistic $29.67 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $44.44). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LUV?
Southwest Airlines Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.6 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $22.81 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2023 ex one-offs: 26.7. Other multiples: PEG 0.2, P/B 2.8, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 10.0.
What is the PEG ratio of LUV?
The PEG ratio of Southwest Airlines Company is 0.20 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Southwest Airlines Company (LUV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Southwest Airlines Company (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 11.1%, debt of 0.57 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LUV from its 52-week high?
Southwest Airlines Company trades at $44.44, about 18% below its 52-week high of $54.07 and 45% above the low of $30.61 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $22.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Southwest Airlines Company?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Delta Air Lines, Inc, United Airlines Holdings, Ryanair Holdings, InterGlobe Aviation Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Southwest Airlines Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $44.44, calculated fair value $22.81 (−49%), Quality Score 57/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LUV calculated?
We run Southwest Airlines Company through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $22.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Southwest Airlines Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Southwest Airlines Company (LUV)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was $44.44. Our model-based fair value is $22.81, about 49% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Southwest Airlines Company right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($29.67). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Southwest Airlines Company (LUV) come from?
Earnings per share at Southwest Airlines Company grew −13.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.7 %, EBIT margin −25.5 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +8.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Southwest Airlines Company

How large is the market capitalisation of Southwest Airlines Company (LUV)?
The market capitalisation of Southwest Airlines Company is $22.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Southwest Airlines Company (LUV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Southwest Airlines Company is 0.74 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Southwest Airlines Company (LUV)?
Earnings per share at Southwest Airlines Company are $1.61 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Southwest Airlines Company (LUV)?
The dividend yield of Southwest Airlines Company is 1.6% (payout 44.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Southwest Airlines Company (LUV)?
The net margin of Southwest Airlines Company is 2.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Southwest Airlines Company (LUV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Southwest Airlines Company is 11.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Southwest Airlines Company (LUV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Southwest Airlines Company is 2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Southwest Airlines Company (LUV)?
The operating margin of Southwest Airlines Company is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Southwest Airlines Company (LUV)?
Revenue at Southwest Airlines Company is growing +16.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Southwest Airlines Company (LUV)?
Earnings per share at Southwest Airlines Company are growing +20.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Southwest Airlines Company (LUV) generate?
The free cash flow of Southwest Airlines Company is −$831M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Southwest Airlines Company (LUV) carry?
The net debt of Southwest Airlines Company is $2.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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