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MFA Financial Inc (MFA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of MFA Financial Inc stock $14.69, price $6.21, upside +136.6%, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Real Estate US

MF MFA Financial Inc logo Broad data Nov 8, 2026

MFA Financial Inc

MFA · US
Undervalued, but in a downtrend

The stock costs 58% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value $14.69 · Strongly undervalued
Highly profitable · 49.0% net margin (TTM)
Ranks above peers (11/15)
Positive coverage
Broad data
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +20%, profit +62%.
Quality 52/100
Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +213.0 %/yr in USD)
23.2% dividend yield · Payout strained
Moderate moat 56/100 · thin data
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$10.39 $4.48 Fair Value $14.69 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $4.48 – $10.39 · fair‑value band $13.95 – $58.76 · the $6.21 price screens below the $14.69 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

MFA Financial, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a real estate investment trust in the United States.

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It operates through two segments: Mortgage-Related Assets and Lima One. The Mortgage-Related Assets segment primarily invests in and manages a diversified portfolio of residential whole loans, including nonqualified mortgage loans, business purpose loans such as single-family rental loans, single-family and multifamily transitional loans, legacy re-performing and non-performing loans, and agency-eligible investor loans.

This segment also invests in residential mortgage-backed securities, including agency MBS, non-agency MBS, and credit risk transfer securities.

The Lima One segment includes a stand-alone mortgage origination and servicing business; and originates and services business purpose loans for real estate investors, and related mortgage banking activities.

The company offers residential whole loans, including purchased credit deteriorated and non-performing loans; and mortgage servicing rights-related assets.

The company's investment activities through a combination of securitization transactions, term loan warehouse financing and repurchase agreement financing. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes.

It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. MFA Financial, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is based in New York, New York.

Stock analysis

MFA Financial Inc (MFA) currently trades at $6.21, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.69, implying the stock looks roughly 58% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $25.91 per share, and 8 of the 10 models we run sit above the $6.21 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $4.37, and 2 of the 10 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $13.95 (bear) to $58.76 (bull), the price of $6.21 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

MFA Financial Inc reported revenue of $875M in FY2025 versus $337M in FY2021, a compound +26.9%/yr. Reported net income was $177M in FY2025, compounding −14.4%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $654M Small · P/E ratio 6.1 · P/S ratio 1.24 · EPS (TTM) $1.01 · Net margin 20.2% · Return on equity 8.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6% (5-year average) · Operating margin 54.0%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at 137%, MFA screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $13.95 Fair Value $14.69 Bull $58.76
Price $6.21 · Upside +136.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF n/a $11.45 >$45.80 77
Residual Income $13.95 $14.69 $16.46 76
Growth DCF n/a $14.66 >$58.64 75
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF n/a $11.45 >$45.80 77
5Y Revenue Exit n/a n/a $0.6000 69
5Y EBITDA Exit n/a $25.91 $97.40 72
10Y Revenue Exit n/a n/a $9.10 64
10Y EBITDA Exit n/a $42.90 $132.72 65
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $2.71 $4.46 $5.73 68
DDM Multi-Stage $2.71 $4.27 $4.81 67
Multiples
P/S Multiple $16.23 $21.65 $27.06 58
P/B Multiple $18.32 $24.43 $30.54 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $8.73 $11.69 $17.45 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF n/a $14.66 >$58.64 75
Rev-Margin DCF n/a n/a $11.85 69
Economic Profit
Residual Income $13.95 $14.69 $16.46 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 52/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 33
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 65
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 46
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 5
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 79
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 48
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 9
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 1
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 79
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+213.0%
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−7.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−7.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−11.0% vs −6.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.98% → 79%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 3.6%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

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Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (91 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Mortgage · 31 stocks

Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 52 · Above median
Fair Value upside +136.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 8.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1.4% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 49.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 54.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 20.2% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 23.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 3.58× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Mortgage median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 6.1× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 0.36× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 2.16× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 8.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 10.1× · Pricier than median
PEG 2.48× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 100
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 97
PAST (return on equity)33 · sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 100

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more REIT - Mortgage stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
AGNC Investment Corp AGNC $8.78 $18.66 +113% vs MFA
Starwood Property Trust, Inc STWD $12.05 $25.00 +107% vs MFA
Orchid Island Capital, Inc ORC $4.94 $8.77 +78% vs MFA
ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc ARR $12.60 $19.59 +56% vs MFA
Rithm Capital Corp RITM $9.23 $13.14 +42% vs MFA
Annaly Capital Management, Inc NLY $18.75 $19.24 +3% vs MFA
Ellington Financial Inc EFC $11.26 $11.12 −1% vs MFA
Dynex Capital, Inc DX $10.68 $9.12 −15% vs MFA
Ladder Capital Corp LADR $8.91 $7.56 −15% vs MFA
Qualitas Real Estate Income Fund QRI A$1.48 A$1.17 −21% vs MFA

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MFA Financial Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "MFA Financial Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MFA

Frequently asked questions

Is MFA Financial Inc (MFA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.69 versus a price of $6.21, about +137% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MFA?
Our model-based fair value for MFA Financial Inc is $14.69 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.21.
What is the quality score of MFA?
MFA Financial Inc has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.69 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $13.95, optimistic scenario $58.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the MFA Financial Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.69, about +137% upside versus a price of $6.21 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $13.95, optimistic scenario $58.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
MFA Financial Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $303M (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For MFA Financial Inc it is $14.69 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $6.21. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is MFA Financial Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, MFA trades below its calculated fair value: price $6.21, fair value $14.69, a gap of about +137% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MFA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.21); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.69). For MFA Financial Inc the two are $8.48 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is MFA Financial Inc worth?
The market values MFA Financial Inc at about $654M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $6.21; our models calculate a fair value of $14.69 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MFA?
Our models span a range for MFA Financial Inc: cautious scenario $13.95, base $14.69, optimistic $58.76 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $6.21). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MFA?
MFA Financial Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.1 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $14.69 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.5, P/B 0.4, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 10.1.
What is the PEG ratio of MFA?
The PEG ratio of MFA Financial Inc is 2.48 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
Balance-sheet figures for MFA Financial Inc (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 8.2%, debt of 3.58 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MFA from its 52-week high?
MFA Financial Inc trades at $6.21, about 40% below its 52-week high of $10.39 and at the low of $6.21 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.69 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to MFA Financial Inc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Annaly Capital Management, Inc, AGNC Investment Corp, Rithm Capital Corp, Starwood Property Trust, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is MFA Financial Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $6.21, calculated fair value $14.69 (+137%), Quality Score 52/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MFA calculated?
We run MFA Financial Inc through 13 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $14.69 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. MFA Financial Inc currently trades 58% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $6.21. Our model-based fair value is $14.69, about +137% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with MFA Financial Inc right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($13.95). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($13.95 to $58.76). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (52/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of MFA Financial Inc (MFA) come from?
Earnings per share at MFA Financial Inc grew −10.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.5 %, EBIT margin +13.9 %, tax rate +10.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −30.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of MFA Financial Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
The market capitalisation of MFA Financial Inc is $654M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of MFA Financial Inc is 1.24 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
Earnings per share at MFA Financial Inc are $1.01 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
The net margin of MFA Financial Inc is 20.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of MFA Financial Inc is 8.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of MFA Financial Inc is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
The operating margin of MFA Financial Inc is 54.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
Revenue at MFA Financial Inc is growing +20.2% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at MFA Financial Inc (MFA)?
Earnings per share at MFA Financial Inc are growing +61.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does MFA Financial Inc (MFA) generate?
The free cash flow of MFA Financial Inc is $76.2M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does MFA Financial Inc (MFA) carry?
The net debt of MFA Financial Inc is $10.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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