Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Marvell Technology Group Ltd stock $87.64, price $160, that is 45.2% below the price, quality 79 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Our calculation puts a fair price 45% below what the stock costs today.
Quality 79/100
Highly profitable · 27.9% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
0.2% dividend yield · Well covered
Wide moat70/100
Broad data
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +37%, profit +50%.
Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +22.5 %/yr in USD)
Mixed vs. peers(6/15)
Insiders sold $28.5M (6M)
Fair value $87.64 · Strongly overvalued (−45.2%)
⟳ CyclicalQuality growth
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Price drop: Dilution concerns from Lumentum acquisition🚩Hyperscaler customer concentration🚩Lower-cost Asian ASIC design rivals🚩Dependence on TSMC for advanced nodes
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $34.27 – $316.28 · fair‑value band $47.44 – $128.48 · the $159.80 price screens above the $87.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Marvell Technology, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides data infrastructure semiconductor solutions and spanning the data center core to network edge in the United States, Argentina, China, India, Israel, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, and internationally.
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The company develops and scales system-on-a-chip architectures, integrating analog, mixed-signal, and digital signal processing functionality.
It offers a portfolio of ethernet solutions, including spanning controllers, network adapters, physical transceivers, and switches; single or multiple core processors; and custom application specific integrated circuits, interconnects, fibre channel adapters, and processors.
The company also provides interconnect products, including pulse amplitude modulation, coherent and coherent-lite digital signal processors (DSPs), laser drivers, trans-impedance amplifiers, silicon photonics, co-packaged optics, linear pluggable optics chipsets, data center interconnect, active electrical cable DSPs and peripheral component interconnect express retimer solutions; fibre channel products comprising host bus adapters and controllers for server and storage system connectivity; storage controllers for hard disk drives and solid-state-drives; host system interfaces, including serial advanced technology attachment and serial attached SCSI, peripheral component interconnect express, compute express link switches, non-volatile memory express (NVMe), and NVMe over fabrics; and develops ultra accelerator linkTM switches and ethernet for scale-up networking switches.
The company serves data centers, communications, and other markets. It offers its products through direct customers and distributors. Marvell Technology, Inc. was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Wilmington, Delaware.
Stock analysis
Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL) currently trades at $159.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $87.64, 45% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $66.84 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $159.80 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $23.84, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $47.44 (bear) to $128.48 (bull), the price of $159.80 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 79/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Marvell Technology Group Ltd reported revenue of $8.2B in FY2026 versus $4.5B in FY2022, a compound +16.4%/yr. Reported net income was $2.7B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $139B Large · P/E ratio 49.3 · P/S ratio 14.7 · EPS (TTM) $3.16 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 27.9% · Return on equity 16.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 70 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 49% below its 52-week high and 117% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −45%, MRVL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.9100 to $93.13). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$47.44Fair Value $87.64Bull$128.48
Price $159.80 · Downside -45.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.22 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 6 officers or directors sold shares worth $28.5M and none bought.
SaleChris KoopmansPresident and COO8× since Apr 6, 2026: 80,000 shares, avg. $199.20$15.9MNov 2, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleSandeep BharathiPresident, Data Center Group5× since Mar 26, 2026: 126,235 shares, avg. $130.49$16.5MOct 16, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMatthew J MurphyChairman of the Board and CEO, Director8× since Mar 26, 2026: 82,500 shares, avg. $173.61$14.3MOct 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJustin ScarpullaSVP, Chief Accounting Officer1,100 shares at $273.59$300,949Oct 8, 2026
SaleDaniel DurnChief Financial Officer2,250 shares at $281.01$632,273Jun 23, 2026
SaleWillem A MeintjesChief Financial Officer2× since Apr 15, 2026: 34,000 shares, avg. $138.86$4.7MMay 15, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleMark CasperEVP & Chief Legal Officer5× since Dec 5, 2025: 41,007 shares, avg. $112.16$4.6MApr 17, 2026
Plus 25 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.91/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+42.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.0% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+40.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+5.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.6% vs 21.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−9% → 16%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+45.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+50.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +41.8% a year for the price and +47.2% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Expanded portfolio in AI data center connectivity strengthens positioning, yet thin public signals leave durable advantages uncertain amid integration issues.
Main risk: A small number of hyperscalers account for the bulk of data center revenue so that delays, program shifts or supplier changes by any one of them could sharply reduce sales and margins.
Bull case: By deepening relationships across all major hyperscalers and expanding its optical and CXL portfolio Marvell could capture a larger share of each customer's AI infrastructure spend and offset any single-program volatility.
Bear case: If hyperscalers shift more custom silicon work to lower-cost Asian designers or integrate more functions in-house Marvell could lose design wins, face sustained margin pressure and see its data-center revenue growth stall.
Marvell announced an all-stock acquisition of Lumentum to build a stronger position in AI data center connectivity and optics. The deal's scale has triggered dilution concerns, as the target’s near-term contribution may not fully offset the new shares issued right away. Does the expanded portfolio deliver durable advantages in a fast-growing segment, or does the integration add more risk than reward?
Compare Marvell Technology Group Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Semiconductors · 372 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score79 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−45.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)16.5% · Above median
Return on assets12.0% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)27.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)16.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)36.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.28× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Semiconductors median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)49.3× · Pricier than median
P/B9.72× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)14.72× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow99.6× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA49.3× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.39× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)66· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)86· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)3· sector 20
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Marvell Technology Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MRVL
Frequently asked questions
Is Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $87.64 versus a price of $159.80, about 45% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MRVL?
Our model-based fair value for Marvell Technology Group Ltd is $87.64 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $159.80.
What is the quality score of MRVL?
Marvell Technology Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 79/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $87.64 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $47.44, optimistic scenario $128.48. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Marvell Technology Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $87.64, about 45% lower versus a price of $159.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $47.44, optimistic scenario $128.48. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL)?
Marvell Technology Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $9.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Marvell Technology Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Marvell Technology Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.15% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Marvell Technology Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +45.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.5 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MRVL use?
Our models discount Marvell Technology Group Ltd at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mega), damped by beta 2.26, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Marvell Technology Group Ltd that is +45.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Marvell Technology Group Ltd grew +22.5 % a year. The price currently implies +45.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Marvell Technology Group Ltd (+45.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.00 %: that much free cash flow Marvell Technology Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Marvell Technology Group Ltd it is $87.64 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of $159.80. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Marvell Technology Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, MRVL trades above its calculated fair value: price $159.80, fair value $87.64, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MRVL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($159.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($87.64). For Marvell Technology Group Ltd the two are $72.16 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Marvell Technology Group Ltd worth?
The market values Marvell Technology Group Ltd at about $139B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is $159.80; our models calculate a fair value of $87.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MRVL?
Our models span a range for Marvell Technology Group Ltd: cautious scenario $47.44, base $87.64, optimistic $128.48 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price $159.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MRVL?
Marvell Technology Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 49.3 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $87.64 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 9.7, P/S 14.7, EV/EBITDA 49.3.
What is the PEG ratio of MRVL?
The PEG ratio of Marvell Technology Group Ltd is 1.39 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Marvell Technology Group Ltd (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 16.5%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 79/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MRVL from its 52-week high?
Marvell Technology Group Ltd trades at $159.80, about 49% below its 52-week high of $316.28 and 117% above the low of $73.66 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $87.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Marvell Technology Group Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value NVIDIA Corporation, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Broadcom Inc, Micron Technology, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Marvell Technology Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price $159.80, calculated fair value $87.64 (−45%), Quality Score 79/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MRVL calculated?
We run Marvell Technology Group Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $87.64, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. Marvell Technology Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $159.80. Our model-based fair value is $87.64, about 45% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Marvell Technology Group Ltd right now?
A high-quality business (quality 79/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($128.48). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($47.44 to $128.48). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Marvell Technology Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL)?
The market capitalisation of Marvell Technology Group Ltd is $139B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Marvell Technology Group Ltd is 14.7 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL)?
Earnings per share at Marvell Technology Group Ltd are $3.16 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 49.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL)?
The dividend yield of Marvell Technology Group Ltd is 0.2% (payout 7.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL)?
The net margin of Marvell Technology Group Ltd is 27.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Marvell Technology Group Ltd is 16.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Marvell Technology Group Ltd is −0.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL)?
The operating margin of Marvell Technology Group Ltd is 16.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL)?
Revenue at Marvell Technology Group Ltd is growing +36.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +11.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL)?
Earnings per share at Marvell Technology Group Ltd are growing +50.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Marvell Technology Group Ltd (MRVL) carry?
The net debt of Marvell Technology Group Ltd is $2.2B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026