Mesabi Trust (MSB) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mesabi Trust stock $27.48, price $17.25, upside +59.3%, quality 69 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.17 – $40.37 · fair‑value band $19.24 – $35.73 · the $17.25 price screens below the $27.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Mesabi Trust, a royalty trust, engages in iron ore mining business in the United States. Mesabi Trust was incorporated in 1961 and is based in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
Mesabi Trust (MSB) currently trades at $17.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $27.48, implying the stock looks roughly 37% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $90.88 per share, and 20 of the 24 models we run sit above the $17.25 price.
Bear case: the Growth Earnings group reads lowest at $27.48, and 4 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $19.24 (bear) to $35.73 (bull), the price of $17.25 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Mesabi Trust reported revenue of $17.5M in FY2026 versus $71.5M in FY2022, a compound −29.6%/yr. Reported net income was $13.9M in FY2026, compounding −33.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $226M Micro · P/E ratio 35.2 · P/S ratio 19.0 · EPS (TTM) $0.4900 · Dividend yield 5.2% · Net margin 54.5% · Return on equity 32.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 62.5% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 59 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 57% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −34% fair-value upside, at 59%, MSB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$19.24Fair Value $27.48Bull$35.73
Price $17.25 · Upside +59.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−31.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.6%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.1% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.3%
’14
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’17
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’19
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−9.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: −14.3% / 3.7%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.91% → 79%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Steel · 410 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+59.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)32.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets56.9% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)54.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−3.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−55.8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)5.2% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Steel median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)35.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B11.09× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)19.01× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)15.7× · Pricier than median
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mesabi Trust Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MSB
Frequently asked questions
Is Mesabi Trust (MSB) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $27.48 versus a price of $17.25, about +59% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MSB?
Our model-based fair value for Mesabi Trust is $27.48 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $17.25.
What is the quality score of MSB?
Mesabi Trust has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mesabi Trust (MSB)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $27.48 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $19.24, optimistic scenario $35.73. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mesabi Trust stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $27.48, about +59% upside versus a price of $17.25 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $19.24, optimistic scenario $35.73. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mesabi Trust (MSB)?
Mesabi Trust reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $11.9M (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Mesabi Trust pay a dividend?
Mesabi Trust currently shows a dividend yield of 5.16% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Mesabi Trust (MSB) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Mesabi Trust pays a dividend of $0.89 per share a year, a dividend yield of 5.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 30, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 1990. The payout ratio is 182% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.23 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Mesabi Trust (MSB)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mesabi Trust would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -7.6 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MSB use?
Our models discount Mesabi Trust at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.33, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mesabi Trust that is less than minus 40 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mesabi Trust (MSB) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mesabi Trust grew -7.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of less than minus 40 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mesabi Trust (MSB) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mesabi Trust (less than minus 40 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mesabi Trust (MSB)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.36 %: that much free cash flow Mesabi Trust produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mesabi Trust (MSB)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mesabi Trust it is $27.48 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $17.25. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Mesabi Trust stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, MSB trades below its calculated fair value: price $17.25, fair value $27.48, a gap of about +59% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MSB?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($17.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($27.48). For Mesabi Trust the two are $10.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mesabi Trust worth?
The market values Mesabi Trust at about $226M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $17.25; our models calculate a fair value of $27.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MSB?
Our models span a range for Mesabi Trust: cautious scenario $19.24, base $27.48, optimistic $35.73 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $17.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MSB?
Mesabi Trust trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.2 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $27.48 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 11.6. Other multiples: P/B 11.1, P/S 19.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mesabi Trust (MSB)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mesabi Trust (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 32.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MSB from its 52-week high?
Mesabi Trust trades at $17.25, about 57% below its 52-week high of $40.37 and 5% above the low of $16.49 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $27.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mesabi Trust?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mesabi Trust stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $17.25, calculated fair value $27.48 (+59%), Quality Score 69/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MSB calculated?
We run Mesabi Trust through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $27.48 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Mesabi Trust currently trades 37% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mesabi Trust (MSB)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $17.25. Our model-based fair value is $27.48, about +59% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mesabi Trust right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($19.24). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (69/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($19.24 to $35.73) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Mesabi Trust (MSB) come from?
Earnings per share at Mesabi Trust grew +2.2 % a year from 2013 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.8 %, EBIT margin −0.6 %, tax rate −2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mesabi Trust
How large is the market capitalisation of Mesabi Trust (MSB)?
The market capitalisation of Mesabi Trust is $226M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mesabi Trust (MSB)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mesabi Trust is 19.0 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mesabi Trust (MSB)?
Earnings per share at Mesabi Trust are $0.4900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mesabi Trust (MSB)?
The dividend yield of Mesabi Trust is 5.2% (payout 182%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mesabi Trust (MSB)?
The net margin of Mesabi Trust is 54.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mesabi Trust (MSB)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mesabi Trust is 32.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mesabi Trust (MSB)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mesabi Trust is 62.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mesabi Trust (MSB)?
The operating margin of Mesabi Trust is −3.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mesabi Trust (MSB)?
Revenue at Mesabi Trust is growing −55.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +31.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mesabi Trust (MSB)?
Earnings per share at Mesabi Trust are growing −70.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Mesabi Trust (MSB) hold?
Mesabi Trust holds more cash than debt, $23.2T net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Nov 6, 2026